4 ms·

I keep saying it - things are fine. Real value has not been wiped out - the amount of real value lost is not big when compared to the general economic numbers.

I keep saying it - things are fine. Real value has not been wiped out - the amount of real value lost is not big when compared to the general economic numbers. The U.S has a bigger problem than the rest of the world, but the U.S is still very dynamic, and many world currencies still measure against the USD. China is developing fast, but a lot of the development does not go very deep. So China is not yet ready to function as a counterweight to the U.S. Europe is doing fine, even if it is sluggish as always. Africa is at it's most conflict-free of the last 50 years and lots of >5 growths there. In general, the U.S needs to get a bit more dynamic, modernize it's infrastructure, take back the production, and it will be as fine as always. The fundamentals of the economy are fine.

jfornear 18y ago
The fundementals of our role within the global economy are anything but sound. Our economy is fueled by consumerism and the service industry. When shit goes down, which do you think has a chance of surviving when countries like China decide to stop subsidizing our spending (by holding down their currencies) in order to enjoy the fruits of their own labor themselves? Forthcoming political unrest in some of these countries are significant factors that lie outside of our own control. (I'm writing this on my iPhone so I apologize for not ellaborating with a more coherent response, but just think about some of these things. No one knows what will happen, but things could easily get pretty 'bleak'. I hope not. I hope we can figure out ways to prolong any mess from occuring.)
- unrealwh 18y ago
  china will be as doomed as the rest. what do they hold? US debt. its toilet paper. their economy is coupled to US consumption. they are developing a domestic market but to do so will take another twenty+ years....the tidal wave of debt is crashing now
  - fallentimes 18y ago
    With people saying things like this, it might be time for me to start buying. US debt is a lot of things, but it's not toilet paper. If they start defaulting then we'll talk.
- Prrometheus 18y ago
  >"Our economy is fueled by consumerism and the service industry." You do know our country has the single largest manufacturing output in the world, right? Misleading soundbites are often repeated until they become popular wisdom.
  - jfornear 18y ago
    Sorry if I sound like a Peter Schiff robot. I've been listening to him too much lately. I've been meaning to add some more optimistic readings/podcasts to my list. China surpassed us recently, and the US losing its hegemon status is very bad for the dollar. The only thing they have left to do (and are doing) is build up their military. They do have quite a few domestic political problems though, but analysts were already confused how capitalism thrives in China anyway so there's no telling what will happen. I think these problems and what they produce are the unknown factors that will determine the new world economy. That is just my pet theory.
    - Prrometheus 18y ago
      Nope: http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/chartbook/2008-01/chart5_9.htm http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/chartbook/2008-01/chart...
      - jfornear 18y ago
        I think the data in that chart is from 2006, but I looked it up and I'm sorry, I must have heard wrong. Apparently, China will surpass the US in manufacturing in 2009 despite their unemployment rate in manufacturing being much higher lately than ours. Either way, the general consensus is that the question is not if they surpass us but when. I would post links but I'm on my phone. My friend from China says not to trust Chinese numbers anyway, haha. I'm not trying to spout doom and gloom, I just find this stuff interesting. I wish I understood macro and history/politics better so I could make my own predictions that might be worth paying attention to.
- markessien 18y ago
  China has a very surface economy. America has a wide number of skilled labourers, not just in the prominent professions like engineers and doctors, but also things like human resources, accounting, etc. There is massive skill value in the U.S, and even if there were a total destruction of the money markets, the skills are not going anywhere, making it very easy to recreate industries. China does not have the same - they have a large quantity of unskilled labour. Most electronic components are produced in China. If China decides to increase their currency, their electronics will get expensive, and phillipines, malaysia, thailand will be happy to take over this role. Political unrest is really the least problem we face right now. Since I was born in 1980, I cannot remember a time when the news had so little conflict. I'm not saying the U.S is perfect, the U.S has big problems. What I think the root cause of the problems is is that a lot of power is given to big companies. It's a sort of self-sustaining monopoly. Americans are now looking upwards - look at big VC companies to give them money, look at corporations for jobs. Small to medium business should be the backbone of any company, not massive shareholder companies.
unrealwh 18y ago
I keep saying it - things are fine. Real value has not been wiped out actually $50 trillion in paper wealth was wiped out in the last twelve months alone. The fundamentals of the economy are fine. no they are not. the comptroller of the US govt estimates our own unrealized debt at potentially $70 trillion. outstanding derivatives total over one quadrillion USD. that is not a typo. global total debt is over one half of one quadrillion USD. the house of cards of global debt financing is only beginning to unwind. take back the production short of world war three, that manufacturing base is gone.

jfornear 18y ago

The fundementals of our role within the global economy are anything but sound. Our economy is fueled by consumerism and the service industry. When shit goes down, which do you think has a chance of surviving when countries like China decide to stop subsidizing our spending (by holding down their currencies) in order to enjoy the fruits of their own labor themselves? Forthcoming political unrest in some of these countries are significant factors that lie outside of our own control. (I'm writing this on my iPhone so I apologize for not ellaborating with a more coherent response, but just think about some of these things. No one knows what will happen, but things could easily get pretty 'bleak'. I hope not. I hope we can figure out ways to prolong any mess from occuring.)

unrealwh 18y ago
china will be as doomed as the rest. what do they hold? US debt. its toilet paper. their economy is coupled to US consumption. they are developing a domestic market but to do so will take another twenty+ years....the tidal wave of debt is crashing now
- fallentimes 18y ago
  With people saying things like this, it might be time for me to start buying. US debt is a lot of things, but it's not toilet paper. If they start defaulting then we'll talk.
Prrometheus 18y ago
>"Our economy is fueled by consumerism and the service industry." You do know our country has the single largest manufacturing output in the world, right? Misleading soundbites are often repeated until they become popular wisdom.
- jfornear 18y ago
  Sorry if I sound like a Peter Schiff robot. I've been listening to him too much lately. I've been meaning to add some more optimistic readings/podcasts to my list. China surpassed us recently, and the US losing its hegemon status is very bad for the dollar. The only thing they have left to do (and are doing) is build up their military. They do have quite a few domestic political problems though, but analysts were already confused how capitalism thrives in China anyway so there's no telling what will happen. I think these problems and what they produce are the unknown factors that will determine the new world economy. That is just my pet theory.
  - Prrometheus 18y ago
    Nope: http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/chartbook/2008-01/chart5_9.htm http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/chartbook/2008-01/chart...
    - jfornear 18y ago
      I think the data in that chart is from 2006, but I looked it up and I'm sorry, I must have heard wrong. Apparently, China will surpass the US in manufacturing in 2009 despite their unemployment rate in manufacturing being much higher lately than ours. Either way, the general consensus is that the question is not if they surpass us but when. I would post links but I'm on my phone. My friend from China says not to trust Chinese numbers anyway, haha. I'm not trying to spout doom and gloom, I just find this stuff interesting. I wish I understood macro and history/politics better so I could make my own predictions that might be worth paying attention to.
markessien 18y ago
China has a very surface economy. America has a wide number of skilled labourers, not just in the prominent professions like engineers and doctors, but also things like human resources, accounting, etc. There is massive skill value in the U.S, and even if there were a total destruction of the money markets, the skills are not going anywhere, making it very easy to recreate industries. China does not have the same - they have a large quantity of unskilled labour. Most electronic components are produced in China. If China decides to increase their currency, their electronics will get expensive, and phillipines, malaysia, thailand will be happy to take over this role. Political unrest is really the least problem we face right now. Since I was born in 1980, I cannot remember a time when the news had so little conflict. I'm not saying the U.S is perfect, the U.S has big problems. What I think the root cause of the problems is is that a lot of power is given to big companies. It's a sort of self-sustaining monopoly. Americans are now looking upwards - look at big VC companies to give them money, look at corporations for jobs. Small to medium business should be the backbone of any company, not massive shareholder companies.

unrealwh 18y ago

I keep saying it - things are fine. Real value has not been wiped out actually $50 trillion in paper wealth was wiped out in the last twelve months alone. The fundamentals of the economy are fine. no they are not. the comptroller of the US govt estimates our own unrealized debt at potentially $70 trillion. outstanding derivatives total over one quadrillion USD. that is not a typo. global total debt is over one half of one quadrillion USD. the house of cards of global debt financing is only beginning to unwind. take back the production short of world war three, that manufacturing base is gone.