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That "Downstream impact" metric sounds like a big yikes. Massive incentives to game that metric and before you know it you've got 10 projects all claiming credi

by arder 2y ago

That "Downstream impact" metric sounds like a big yikes. Massive incentives to game that metric and before you know it you've got 10 projects all claiming credit for some theoretical downstream impact all of which are actually just canabalizing existing revenue. Like, Amazon is doing $5Bn of revenue selling tide pods, the Alexa team make some claim about people's likeliness to order tide pods via the Alexa and before you know it Amazon is still doing $5Bn of revenue selling tide pods but they've got a $2Bn cost centre of overpaid enginers designing hardware that lets you order tide pods. I wonder which way this splits for Amazon though, on the one hand lots of people already have Alexas and so you've got great brand recognition when you want to sell your Gen AI doodad. On the other hand, your Alexa brand is trash, everyone knows its basically only good for timers so maybe no one will take them seriously when the Gen AI version comes out.

klodolph 2y ago
Tech companies have to cannibalize existing revenue to stay relevant long-term. If you don’t cannibalize your own revenue streams, then some other company will figure out how to take your revenue. (Innovator’s Dilemma takes this concept and stretches it out across a whole book.) That said… Alexa seems like such a waste. It’s like Sony making an MP3 player. Sony Electronics was never going to make a good MP3 player as long as Sony Records wanted copy protection. These are user-hostile decisions that protect the larger business. Likewise, can Amazon deliver an AI assistant that does something else, besides get people to buy more products through Amazon more easily? No, the incentives aren’t there.
- adolph 2y ago
  I don’t Sony Electronics can blame the music side of the house for Memory Stick. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_Stick https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_Stick
  - klodolph 2y ago
    Sure, I agree that not 100% of all bad decisions ever made by Sony Electronics can be blamed on Sony Records. The number is not 0% either.
treis 2y ago
It does seem important for the ecosystem. I'm on Google Music because Spotify & Amazon Music didn't work well with android auto & Google Home.
skellera 2y ago
Downstream impact is gamed internally at Amazon. People crucified Sears for making teams compete internally but that’s literally what’s happening at Amazon at a larger scale. Teams and orgs regularly push back against helping each other. Will not waste resources to help others. I don’t believe Amazon has a good outlook over 5 years unless they get lucky with random bets. They no longer innovate, they just copy and try to compete with scale. Even then, it doesn’t work because no one working on that product actually cares about the problem so startups can easily outcompete with “customer obsession.”
- wnc3141 2y ago
  I think even if Amazon stagnates, servicing that core business at scale is a once in a generation moat.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    Maybe, but Amazon is already from the previous generation and so by your metric another is due. Good luck starting it.
  - StressedDev 2y ago
    Retail is extremely competitive. Amazon does not have the best prices, and has a horrible experience for shopping. It's basically a specialized search engine with lots of ads at this point. Also, the things which made Amazon shopping a no-brainer are gone. Items no longer always arrive within two days if you have Prime, there are lots of poor-quality items, and it's hard to find what you really want. Finally, it's obvious Amazon's retail employees are not customer obsessed. Look at the web site design, and ask yourself if you would design a retail web site like Amazon's? My guess is Amazon's retail business will eventually start declining as customers discover it's relatively expensive, and it's too easy to buy low quality items.
    - onion2k 2y ago
      Prime is Amazon's moat though. More than 100 million people subscribe to a service that locks them into choosing Amazon first. People with Prime choose Amazon over going to a physical store. It's what took Amazon out of being an e-commerce business and into being a retail business. Don't underestimate how important Prime is to Amazon - it's literally a vendor lock-in that generates billions directly through fees and tens of billions indirectly through additional sales.
jhgvhi 2y ago
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by arder 2y ago

klodolph 2y ago

Tech companies have to cannibalize existing revenue to stay relevant long-term. If you don’t cannibalize your own revenue streams, then some other company will figure out how to take your revenue. (Innovator’s Dilemma takes this concept and stretches it out across a whole book.) That said… Alexa seems like such a waste. It’s like Sony making an MP3 player. Sony Electronics was never going to make a good MP3 player as long as Sony Records wanted copy protection. These are user-hostile decisions that protect the larger business. Likewise, can Amazon deliver an AI assistant that does something else, besides get people to buy more products through Amazon more easily? No, the incentives aren’t there.

adolph 2y ago
I don’t Sony Electronics can blame the music side of the house for Memory Stick. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_Stick https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_Stick
- klodolph 2y ago
  Sure, I agree that not 100% of all bad decisions ever made by Sony Electronics can be blamed on Sony Records. The number is not 0% either.

treis 2y ago

It does seem important for the ecosystem. I'm on Google Music because Spotify & Amazon Music didn't work well with android auto & Google Home.

skellera 2y ago

Downstream impact is gamed internally at Amazon. People crucified Sears for making teams compete internally but that’s literally what’s happening at Amazon at a larger scale. Teams and orgs regularly push back against helping each other. Will not waste resources to help others. I don’t believe Amazon has a good outlook over 5 years unless they get lucky with random bets. They no longer innovate, they just copy and try to compete with scale. Even then, it doesn’t work because no one working on that product actually cares about the problem so startups can easily outcompete with “customer obsession.”

wnc3141 2y ago
I think even if Amazon stagnates, servicing that core business at scale is a once in a generation moat.
- bluGill 2y ago
  Maybe, but Amazon is already from the previous generation and so by your metric another is due. Good luck starting it.
- StressedDev 2y ago
  Retail is extremely competitive. Amazon does not have the best prices, and has a horrible experience for shopping. It's basically a specialized search engine with lots of ads at this point. Also, the things which made Amazon shopping a no-brainer are gone. Items no longer always arrive within two days if you have Prime, there are lots of poor-quality items, and it's hard to find what you really want. Finally, it's obvious Amazon's retail employees are not customer obsessed. Look at the web site design, and ask yourself if you would design a retail web site like Amazon's? My guess is Amazon's retail business will eventually start declining as customers discover it's relatively expensive, and it's too easy to buy low quality items.
  - onion2k 2y ago
    Prime is Amazon's moat though. More than 100 million people subscribe to a service that locks them into choosing Amazon first. People with Prime choose Amazon over going to a physical store. It's what took Amazon out of being an e-commerce business and into being a retail business. Don't underestimate how important Prime is to Amazon - it's literally a vendor lock-in that generates billions directly through fees and tens of billions indirectly through additional sales.

jhgvhi 2y ago

[dead]