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My prediction (dating back to 2015 when I was working at Uber) is that the cost per trip will never make sense for this to be a viable business model in the way

My prediction (dating back to 2015 when I was working at Uber) is that the cost per trip will never make sense for this to be a viable business model in the way Waymo presents itself as a product. I would really be curious to know how much Google has spent on this project over the last 15-20 years. There are many cheap Honda Civics and many unskilled people to drive them vs the custom real time hardware and software solutions required to power a Waymo trip.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> cost per trip will never make sense for this to be a viable business model in the way Waymo presents itself as a product How do you figure? In any case, Waymo is presently positioned as a premium product. That looks likely to remain true for at least half a decade.
bigyikes 2y ago
Once self driving is solved, the custom hardware and software is largely a fixed cost which can pay for itself over long time horizons. Meat-based drivers must be continually paid and don’t get any cheaper over time.
titanomachy 2y ago
They might be able to charge a premium for the unmanned experience. It’s at least more consistent, if not outright better, than a human-driven ride. In my city Uber costs nearly $100 per hour and the drivers are hit or miss; most are fine, but I’ve had a few near-collisions and wrong turns. Plus they cancel on me if I want to go somewhere they don’t like.
andrewmcwatters 2y ago
Back in 2015, the cost of lidar and compute was a bit higher. I'm curious what your estimates were. Their current hardware array is really expensive to replicate, and I have no idea how much cost savings they generate internally by buying their own inventory and building in-house.
KoolKat23 2y ago
Their investment is a sunk cost, at this point all looking at that number does is make it less attractive for others to enter the market and compete with them. Those custom hardware costs and software maintenance costs should continue to reduce gradually as it is being commoditized. The profit Uber make and the salary the drivers draw should eventually become the margin buffer/profit Google is able to extract.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> cost per trip will never make sense for this to be a viable business model in the way Waymo presents itself as a product How do you figure? In any case, Waymo is presently positioned as a premium product. That looks likely to remain true for at least half a decade.

bigyikes 2y ago

Once self driving is solved, the custom hardware and software is largely a fixed cost which can pay for itself over long time horizons. Meat-based drivers must be continually paid and don’t get any cheaper over time.

titanomachy 2y ago

They might be able to charge a premium for the unmanned experience. It’s at least more consistent, if not outright better, than a human-driven ride. In my city Uber costs nearly $100 per hour and the drivers are hit or miss; most are fine, but I’ve had a few near-collisions and wrong turns. Plus they cancel on me if I want to go somewhere they don’t like.

andrewmcwatters 2y ago

Back in 2015, the cost of lidar and compute was a bit higher. I'm curious what your estimates were. Their current hardware array is really expensive to replicate, and I have no idea how much cost savings they generate internally by buying their own inventory and building in-house.

KoolKat23 2y ago

Their investment is a sunk cost, at this point all looking at that number does is make it less attractive for others to enter the market and compete with them. Those custom hardware costs and software maintenance costs should continue to reduce gradually as it is being commoditized. The profit Uber make and the salary the drivers draw should eventually become the margin buffer/profit Google is able to extract.