9 ms·

Waymo has had a stellar year. 50,000+ rides per week across 3 major cities is nothing to scoff at, their users give overwhelmingly positive reviews. They are no

by ra7 2y ago

Waymo has had a stellar year. 50,000+ rides per week across 3 major cities is nothing to scoff at, their users give overwhelmingly positive reviews. They are now testing their new purpose built robotaxis [1], which are supposed to be cheaper and get them to scale. They also don't seem to have any real competition right now. Cruise kind of self destructed and it came out today that GM is scrapping plans to build their 'Origin' robotaxis [2]. Tesla pushed out its robotaxi reveal and going by their track record, it won't exist for a long time (they are also nowhere close to doing fully autonomous rides [3], so there's that). Fully deserved, IMO. It's interesting how this funding round doesn't include external investors, but the previous two did. What's the calculation by Alphabet here? [1] https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/23/the-waymo-zeekr-robotaxi-has-come-to-san-francisco/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/23/the-waymo-zeekr-robotaxi-h... [2] https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/23/gms-cruise-abandons-origin-robotaxi-takes-583-million-charge/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/23/gms-cruise-abandons-origin... [3] https://www.teslafsdtracker.com https://www.teslafsdtracker.com

pchristensen 2y ago
If you think it's de-risked and ready to take off, why share the upside?
- tourist2d 2y ago
  [dead]
ugh123 2y ago
>Fully deserved, IMO. It's interesting how this funding round doesn't include external investors, but the previous two did. What's the calculation by Alphabet here? Prediction: Google/Waymo will buy the smallest, yet capable, manufacturer of vehicles (electric or not), and vertically integrate.
- pixelatedindex 2y ago
  Is this how Mitsubishi is going to reclaim their past glory? As a child I remember they had some iconic vehicles.
  - tyingq 2y ago
    That seems plausible. A lot of their current lineup gets dinged, but it's for things like "refinement" or styling, or underpowered, and so on. They have a good reputation for reliability, safety, and other things that are harder to improve.
- cut3 2y ago
  Chinese EVs are so cheap and incredible I think its likely they get a custom vehicle built by one of them.
  - ra7 2y ago
    That’s what their new vehicle platform is. It’s from Zeekr. But there are concerns around tariffs on Chinese built vehicles. I don’t know if Waymo gets an exception because technically they “assemble” their sensors in the US.
    - tim333 2y ago
      There seem to be ways around by assembling in places like Mexico.
roughly 2y ago
One thing I'll be curious about here over the long run is what winds up being the actual effective cost per mile of a taxi-style ride - my understanding is counting deprecation and repair costs, Uber's pricing has already been at or below cost, and most drivers are effectively underwater when you price in the cost of wear and tear on the vehicle itself. Custom-built ultra-high-duty-cycle vehicles a la the mail trucks and the London cabs should help here, but I think it's an open question just how cheap you can really make a ride, and I'm not sure the meat in the drivers seat is the primary driver of cost at this point.
- bigyikes 2y ago
  Vehicle depreciation doesn’t matter unless you’re selling the thing. Wear and tear will be reduced with an all-electric drivetrain, which is uncommon for Ubers outside of California. Costs will be further reduced by bulk maintenance and solar charging. Autonomous vehicles will also have extremely high utilization rates since they can run 24 hours a day, versus a cab or Uber vehicle which sits idle, losing money.
  - com2kid 2y ago
    > Autonomous vehicles will also have extremely high utilization rates since they can run 24 hours a day, versus a cab or Uber vehicle which sits idle, losing money. Math doesn't work out there. You need N number of vehicles to give good service (low wait times) during peak hours and special events, and a much smaller number of vehicles the rest of the time. Only a small portion of a fleet will need to run 24/7. Now that said, they can cycle vehicles in and out of 24 hour shifts to spread the wear and tear more evenly across the fleet, assuming there is a benefit to doing that.
    - ra7 2y ago
      The vehicles can also be redeployed during off-peak hours for delivery services. They’ve previously also talked about private subscriptions for individuals.
  - roughly 2y ago

by ra7 2y ago

pchristensen 2y ago

If you think it's de-risked and ready to take off, why share the upside?

tourist2d 2y ago
[dead]

ugh123 2y ago

>Fully deserved, IMO. It's interesting how this funding round doesn't include external investors, but the previous two did. What's the calculation by Alphabet here? Prediction: Google/Waymo will buy the smallest, yet capable, manufacturer of vehicles (electric or not), and vertically integrate.

pixelatedindex 2y ago
Is this how Mitsubishi is going to reclaim their past glory? As a child I remember they had some iconic vehicles.
- tyingq 2y ago
  That seems plausible. A lot of their current lineup gets dinged, but it's for things like "refinement" or styling, or underpowered, and so on. They have a good reputation for reliability, safety, and other things that are harder to improve.
cut3 2y ago
Chinese EVs are so cheap and incredible I think its likely they get a custom vehicle built by one of them.
- ra7 2y ago
  That’s what their new vehicle platform is. It’s from Zeekr. But there are concerns around tariffs on Chinese built vehicles. I don’t know if Waymo gets an exception because technically they “assemble” their sensors in the US.
  - tim333 2y ago
    There seem to be ways around by assembling in places like Mexico.

roughly 2y ago

One thing I'll be curious about here over the long run is what winds up being the actual effective cost per mile of a taxi-style ride - my understanding is counting deprecation and repair costs, Uber's pricing has already been at or below cost, and most drivers are effectively underwater when you price in the cost of wear and tear on the vehicle itself. Custom-built ultra-high-duty-cycle vehicles a la the mail trucks and the London cabs should help here, but I think it's an open question just how cheap you can really make a ride, and I'm not sure the meat in the drivers seat is the primary driver of cost at this point.

bigyikes 2y ago
Vehicle depreciation doesn’t matter unless you’re selling the thing. Wear and tear will be reduced with an all-electric drivetrain, which is uncommon for Ubers outside of California. Costs will be further reduced by bulk maintenance and solar charging. Autonomous vehicles will also have extremely high utilization rates since they can run 24 hours a day, versus a cab or Uber vehicle which sits idle, losing money.
- com2kid 2y ago
  > Autonomous vehicles will also have extremely high utilization rates since they can run 24 hours a day, versus a cab or Uber vehicle which sits idle, losing money. Math doesn't work out there. You need N number of vehicles to give good service (low wait times) during peak hours and special events, and a much smaller number of vehicles the rest of the time. Only a small portion of a fleet will need to run 24/7. Now that said, they can cycle vehicles in and out of 24 hour shifts to spread the wear and tear more evenly across the fleet, assuming there is a benefit to doing that.
  - ra7 2y ago
    The vehicles can also be redeployed during off-peak hours for delivery services. They’ve previously also talked about private subscriptions for individuals.
- roughly 2y ago