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This is a frequent topic of discussion in various forums and I am sure by Very Serious People in Charge [TM]. Extrapolating from the general sad state of the w

This is a frequent topic of discussion in various forums and I am sure by Very Serious People in Charge [TM]. Extrapolating from the general sad state of the weapon systems in use by Russians where they are at this point unpacking tanks made in 1950, the quality of maintenance on their vehicles, and is difficult to plausibly claim that all the ancient rusty USSR stuff across the strategic rocket barrier is in any sort of usable shape. Now, if an order to launch is given, some rockets may launch, some of those may actually fly, some of those flying actually get somewhere, and perhaps some of THOSE may actually detonate should they reach the target, and maybe if you're lucky at the designed yield. The percentages in that funnel that aren't known. And nobody [perhaps except some crazies] wants to find them out because even one in the middle of big city is enough.

hollerith 2y ago
>difficult to plausibly claim that all the ancient rusty USSR stuff across the strategic rocket barrier is in any sort of usable shape. There is no more ancient rusty USSR stuff -- at least in the Kremlin's strategic nuclear arsenal: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41041532 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41041532
- bamboozled 2y ago
  Without evidence, that comment is an opinion piece. Hopefully we never have to find out.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - hollerith 2y ago
    Could it be that the source of your skepticism is the fact that you have over the last 2 years seen many comments here on HN asserting that Russia's military is probably incapable of maintaining an effective strategic nuclear capability whereas my comment is the first one you've seen that takes the opposite position? According to one comment I saw here a few weeks ago, Russia's nukes are probably made of wood. I suggest searching the web for "Russian nuclear weapons modernization", restricting yourself to credible news outlets.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - bamboozled 2y ago
      Still feels like an opinion, as the other commenter said, look at the state of their equipment when going against Ukraine, there is little indication their nukes or their silos, bombers are much better except your opinion. Opinions are fine, but the evidence against your opinion is currently stronger.
      - hollerith 2y ago
        [flagged]
        racional 2y ago
        Also, you do realize that Russia is currently winning in Ukraine They are not "currently winning". By any objective measure, the war on the ground is currently a stalement. Only problem is that in the long term -- stalemates never work out for the occupiers. In Russia's case: If the situation continues as it does, and moving at the glacial pace that it does, and draining 10 percent of its GDP every year -- they will ultimately have to give up on their optional neocolonial adventure, pick up their toys and go home.
        rainworld 2y ago
        [flagged]
        racional 2y ago
        Only one side has had meaningful advances. That's not true, as Ukraine has scored significant non-territorial advances (like forcing most of the occupier's fleet to retreat from Crimea) in the same time frame. Also you're setting an arbitrary time window of 1 year (when if we want to evaluate the conflict meaningfully, we need to look at how things are moving now compared to the start of the conflict. Which is definitely not the outcome Russia intended. And ignoring Russia's considerable losses in achieving the paltry gains that it has (which are very much part of the attrition equation), etc. What never works out is a smaller country winning a war of attrition against a (much) bigger opponent. You're missing the point -- the smaller country doesn't need to "win" the war of attrition (in terms of effecting a complete reversal) in order to win the conflict. It just needs to outlast the occupier. For which there are no end of precedents in history, recent and ancient. Including (ironically) the U.S. withdraw from Afghanistan, which is apparently what gave Putin the gigantic (for him) hard-on that inspired him to sign his country for the same inevitable fate in the first place (but with much higher cost and KIA/WIA rates to his people along the way). Did you catch Zelensky the other day? He knows where this is going. I don't see any significance to that quote. But it does seem pretty clear which side you're cheering for, in any case.
IAmGraydon 2y ago
>Now, if an order to launch is given, some rockets may launch, some of those may actually fly, some of those flying actually get somewhere, and perhaps some of THOSE may actually detonate should they reach the target, and maybe if you're lucky at the designed yield. The percentages in that funnel that aren't known. I think you're likely wrong about that last part. I would be willing to bet that certain US 3-letter agencies know very well what the percentages in that funnel are. It's clearly enough that the west is careful about direct confrontation with Russia.
danielodievich 2y ago
So very timely, reading The Economist from last week https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-stocks-of-soviet-era-weaponry-are-running-out https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-sto... (https://archive.is/Z9j7Y https://archive.is/Z9j7Y no paywall). I'd definitely trust The Economist over most anything on this kind of research. Some choice quotes: "Vladimir Putin has the old politburo to thank for the huge stockpiles of weapons that were built up during the cold war" "Russia’s ability to build new tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, or even to refurbish old ones, is hampered by the difficulty of getting components. <...> The lack of high-quality ball-bearings is also a constraint." "They [military firms] also largely depend on machine tools imported years ago from Germany and Sweden, many of which are now old and hard to maintain." Given that the country has no ability to produce ball bearings - and in other news, even nails, and can only cast gun barrels in single digits on western equipment, consider me HIGHLY skeptical that any rocket modernization that was supposed to have transpired has gleaming ready to fly stuff. More likely the money was "razpil" (разпилено) - literally "sawn off". Still, lets hope we don't have to find out

hollerith 2y ago

>difficult to plausibly claim that all the ancient rusty USSR stuff across the strategic rocket barrier is in any sort of usable shape. There is no more ancient rusty USSR stuff -- at least in the Kremlin's strategic nuclear arsenal: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41041532 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41041532

bamboozled 2y ago
Without evidence, that comment is an opinion piece. Hopefully we never have to find out.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- hollerith 2y ago
  Could it be that the source of your skepticism is the fact that you have over the last 2 years seen many comments here on HN asserting that Russia's military is probably incapable of maintaining an effective strategic nuclear capability whereas my comment is the first one you've seen that takes the opposite position? According to one comment I saw here a few weeks ago, Russia's nukes are probably made of wood. I suggest searching the web for "Russian nuclear weapons modernization", restricting yourself to credible news outlets.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - bamboozled 2y ago
    Still feels like an opinion, as the other commenter said, look at the state of their equipment when going against Ukraine, there is little indication their nukes or their silos, bombers are much better except your opinion. Opinions are fine, but the evidence against your opinion is currently stronger.
    - hollerith 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - racional 2y ago
        Also, you do realize that Russia is currently winning in Ukraine They are not "currently winning". By any objective measure, the war on the ground is currently a stalement. Only problem is that in the long term -- stalemates never work out for the occupiers. In Russia's case: If the situation continues as it does, and moving at the glacial pace that it does, and draining 10 percent of its GDP every year -- they will ultimately have to give up on their optional neocolonial adventure, pick up their toys and go home.
        rainworld 2y ago
        [flagged]
        racional 2y ago
        Only one side has had meaningful advances. That's not true, as Ukraine has scored significant non-territorial advances (like forcing most of the occupier's fleet to retreat from Crimea) in the same time frame. Also you're setting an arbitrary time window of 1 year (when if we want to evaluate the conflict meaningfully, we need to look at how things are moving now compared to the start of the conflict. Which is definitely not the outcome Russia intended. And ignoring Russia's considerable losses in achieving the paltry gains that it has (which are very much part of the attrition equation), etc. What never works out is a smaller country winning a war of attrition against a (much) bigger opponent. You're missing the point -- the smaller country doesn't need to "win" the war of attrition (in terms of effecting a complete reversal) in order to win the conflict. It just needs to outlast the occupier. For which there are no end of precedents in history, recent and ancient. Including (ironically) the U.S. withdraw from Afghanistan, which is apparently what gave Putin the gigantic (for him) hard-on that inspired him to sign his country for the same inevitable fate in the first place (but with much higher cost and KIA/WIA rates to his people along the way). Did you catch Zelensky the other day? He knows where this is going. I don't see any significance to that quote. But it does seem pretty clear which side you're cheering for, in any case.

IAmGraydon 2y ago

>Now, if an order to launch is given, some rockets may launch, some of those may actually fly, some of those flying actually get somewhere, and perhaps some of THOSE may actually detonate should they reach the target, and maybe if you're lucky at the designed yield. The percentages in that funnel that aren't known. I think you're likely wrong about that last part. I would be willing to bet that certain US 3-letter agencies know very well what the percentages in that funnel are. It's clearly enough that the west is careful about direct confrontation with Russia.

danielodievich 2y ago

So very timely, reading The Economist from last week https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-stocks-of-soviet-era-weaponry-are-running-out https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/07/16/russias-vast-sto... (https://archive.is/Z9j7Y https://archive.is/Z9j7Y no paywall). I'd definitely trust The Economist over most anything on this kind of research. Some choice quotes: "Vladimir Putin has the old politburo to thank for the huge stockpiles of weapons that were built up during the cold war" "Russia’s ability to build new tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, or even to refurbish old ones, is hampered by the difficulty of getting components. <...> The lack of high-quality ball-bearings is also a constraint." "They [military firms] also largely depend on machine tools imported years ago from Germany and Sweden, many of which are now old and hard to maintain." Given that the country has no ability to produce ball bearings - and in other news, even nails, and can only cast gun barrels in single digits on western equipment, consider me HIGHLY skeptical that any rocket modernization that was supposed to have transpired has gleaming ready to fly stuff. More likely the money was "razpil" (разпилено) - literally "sawn off". Still, lets hope we don't have to find out