3 ms·

Why did US disclose this number? Is there a treaty compelling them to? Did other nuclear powers disclose them?

_visgean 2y ago
it has no reason not to, its a detterent, russia and china needs to believe that the nukes are working and that there is enough for them to ensure the mutual assured destruction.
maxglute 2y ago
IMO context is: recent US/PRC nuclear talk broke down. US/RU nuclear monitoring also broke down post UKR war. There is no strategic monitoring system anymore between large nuclear powers. Only mind games now. Throw number out there for deterrence/mind game as everyone is either building out (PRC) or modernizing nuke force (US/RU). Maybe anchoring technique to limit proliferation range. That said, there's no reason US adversaries should believe # is credible. And even if it is, each country has different # of launchers/warheads for deterence posture due to different geopolitical/technological constraints. I.e. ballistic missile defense changes penetration ratios.
holowoodman 2y ago
Everyone knows the rough number anyways I'd suspect. Publishing numbers is a part of all arms-control treaties, so unilaterally publishing it may be an attempt to show willingness and shame the others towards a new arms-control treaty. And of course, as the sister comment said, an announcement of dick-size.
thaumasiotes 2y ago
They're scared and they want to intimidate. Talking about them is the first step toward using them.
hugh-avherald 2y ago
While generally it's an advantage to keep information about your true military capability secret, for nuclear weapons it's the opposite.
no_exit 2y ago
positive press side of updating arms posture in Europe, like the B-52 flight Sunday: https://www.newsweek.com/american-b52-bombers-historic-nato-flight-near-russia-1928234 https://www.newsweek.com/american-b52-bombers-historic-nato-...
justin66 2y ago
How would you write treaties governing the number of weapons of various types each side deploys and where they deploy them, if you kept this information secret?

it has no reason not to, its a detterent, russia and china needs to believe that the nukes are working and that there is enough for them to ensure the mutual assured destruction.

maxglute 2y ago

IMO context is: recent US/PRC nuclear talk broke down. US/RU nuclear monitoring also broke down post UKR war. There is no strategic monitoring system anymore between large nuclear powers. Only mind games now. Throw number out there for deterrence/mind game as everyone is either building out (PRC) or modernizing nuke force (US/RU). Maybe anchoring technique to limit proliferation range. That said, there's no reason US adversaries should believe # is credible. And even if it is, each country has different # of launchers/warheads for deterence posture due to different geopolitical/technological constraints. I.e. ballistic missile defense changes penetration ratios.

holowoodman 2y ago

Everyone knows the rough number anyways I'd suspect. Publishing numbers is a part of all arms-control treaties, so unilaterally publishing it may be an attempt to show willingness and shame the others towards a new arms-control treaty. And of course, as the sister comment said, an announcement of dick-size.

thaumasiotes 2y ago

They're scared and they want to intimidate. Talking about them is the first step toward using them.

hugh-avherald 2y ago

While generally it's an advantage to keep information about your true military capability secret, for nuclear weapons it's the opposite.

no_exit 2y ago

positive press side of updating arms posture in Europe, like the B-52 flight Sunday: https://www.newsweek.com/american-b52-bombers-historic-nato-flight-near-russia-1928234 https://www.newsweek.com/american-b52-bombers-historic-nato-...

justin66 2y ago

How would you write treaties governing the number of weapons of various types each side deploys and where they deploy them, if you kept this information secret?