5 ms·
The issue is that the answers are (yes basically) universally different regardless of whether both options are provided, but that statistically speaking they ar
by dools 14y ago
The issue is that the answers are (yes basically) universally different regardless of whether both options are provided, but that statistically speaking they are identical.
The foible of humanity that makes the answers different is that we first "rebase" our expectations to the 100% chance, rather than considering our current position to be the baseline.
- kristopolous 14y agoYes, statistically they are identical. However, the fact that people consider the significance of the objects and the context of the decision isn't a fault of human intellect. Really, stating otherwise is a fault of human analysis. It's a game theory problem I think (likely a variation of the stag hunt: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt). It's a paradox only because Armchair mathematical intuition fails to explain it.
- roel_v 14y agoNo because the stag hunt family of problems are about trust in other people, the situation in the OP is not. It's about risk aversion. Whether or not that is a 'fault of human intellect' is a matter of definition and up for debate, it's not as clear-cut as you make it out to be.
- kristopolous 14y agoOk thanks. I am no specialist in this by any means. But I do know enough to be cautious when dealing with these types of problems. Glad you clarified.