I see it differently. The whole point of the article is that these problems affect smart people. >For one thing, self-awareness was not particularly useful: as

I see it differently. The whole point of the article is that these problems affect smart people. >For one thing, self-awareness was not particularly useful: as the scientists note, “people who were aware of their own biases were not better able to overcome them.” This finding wouldn’t surprise Kahneman, who admits in “Thinking, Fast and Slow” that his decades of groundbreaking research have failed to significantly improve his own mental performance. “My intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy”—a tendency to underestimate how long it will take to complete a task—“as it was before I made a study of these issues,” he writes. It has nothing to do with knowledge of higher level mathematics because these problems are easily solvable with arithmetic. Lacking calculus doesn't kill you on this problem. An intuitive gut feeling that you've already arrived at the right answer and laziness is the source of confusion. I've even read about that damn bat and ball problem and it STILL tripped me up this time. I could easily have double checked my answer, but I wanted to read the article. Even a child knowing nothing other than addition could get it right with a little bit of trial and error. I hope after admitting that you see that I don't find the problems condescendingly trivial. Personally, I found the second problem much easier... probably because programmers have a better intuitive grasp of powers of 2. Bringing in slope is stretching it a bit. Working in reverse from the completely covered lake, it should be obvious that going back one day halves the lily pads. However, I could imagine how someone more familiar with linear processes would get the wrong intuitive result. >The answers they come up with appears right to their known level of logic. A studious habit sure, but checking your answer isn't a higher level math skill.