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"calculated based on 27 years of data on historic energy trends, societal priorities, required mission energy, and the implications of the Incessant Obsolescenc
by rubidium 14y ago
"calculated based on 27 years of data on historic energy trends, societal priorities, required mission energy, and the implications of the Incessant Obsolescence Postulate "
Yes, you're right. He's assuming everything proceeds growing the way it is now. You gotta start somewhere when predicting the future.
- stfu 14y agoThe problem is, that things like these create a misguided perception in the general public. Papers like these should be full of disclaimers that making predictions about any technology 200 years in the future is at best highly speculative. Ultimately I would argue the value of a constructed research like this is very little more than the work of a scifi author who just makes up some story based on the last 27 years of his life experience. The choice ultimately comes down to what method one prefers for speculating on what is going to happen 200 years from now.