4 ms·

True-swing voters are a tiny minority. Most of the folks who say they’re unaffiliated or moderates or open to voting for either party in fact vote exactly like

True-swing voters are a tiny minority. Most of the folks who say they’re unaffiliated or moderates or open to voting for either party in fact vote exactly like a self-reported partisan. They just don’t like the label. Lots of crappy reporting doesn’t differentiate between self-reported swing/moderates and true swing. GOTV matters more. Do your people show up at the polls?

Suppafly 2y ago
>True-swing voters are a tiny minority. Honestly, just like undecided voters, they are either a myth or complete idiots.
2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
Maybe but we have also seen a swing in how politics works (gotten more extreme). During the last two decades I've gone from Republican to Democrat to independent (never-Trumper, Democrat by GOP moral forfeit). I wonder how my beliefs would have evolved if US politics didn't grow so extreme over time.
- WarOnPrivacy 2y ago
  > Maybe but we have also seen a swing in how politics works (gotten more extreme). I've seen the same and done similar. I'm now in the unhappy position of voting against instead of voting for.
- lolinder 2y ago
  I'm in the same boat. I think everyone dramatically underestimates how many of us Trump refugees there are. Some of us are never trumpers and actually voted for Biden, some of us held our nose and voted for Trump. But the extreme right that fuels MAGA doesn't have as much support as people think, and the main reason why Trump stands a chance this year is because the left has made no overtures whatsoever to the center and center-right.
  - vundercind 2y ago
    Going along with the… let’s say poorly supported by the facts notions that illegal immigrants are meaningful in terms of rising violent crime rates (which—to avoid accidentally contributing to the problem, no, they’re not rising) or fentanyl smuggling, and backing that not just with rhetoric but with policy in some cases is, I think, one thing the democratic campaigns believe they’re doing to reach out toward the center and center right. It’s definitely not aimed at democrats even a hair left of… idk, Reagan I guess, given the whole amnesty thing. So they are trying some stuff.
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
    My father was a straight-ticket Republican voter his entire life and now he says he will never vote for any MAGA Republican. He hates the MAGA takeover of the party. Though it's anecdotal, I agree that there are far more Trump refugees than people think. I also don't know any Democrats who have done the inverse and moved to the MAGA camp. Hopefully Trump's loss will be the final nail in the coffin for MAGA.
  - wredcoll 2y ago
    > and the main reason why Trump stands a chance this year is because the left has made no overtures whatsoever to the center and center-right. People keep repeating this like it's some kind of obvious basic fact and I get more and more confused each time. How much more "center" can you get than Joe Biden? Or Hillary Clinton? Or Kamala Harris? As far as I know, they're all in favor of arresting illegal immigrants, using military power to further foreign policies, moderate taxation, little to no drug legalization, mass incarceration for felons, barely any gun control, etc, etc. What exactly is the "center-right" looking for that they're not getting? Every time the media (and social media) brings up self-described right wing desires, they're pretty much entirely culture war issues, is that what you mean?
jkestner 2y ago
That's the thing. When individual issues are polled without party labels, the Democratic Party's positions are largely popular. Just like these issues, if you were to put a Republican on the Democratic ticket, that candidate will lose support. We've seen repeatedly that Democrats going to the middle are met with supposedly moderate Republicans saying, "But not like that."
- baggy_trough 2y ago
  They are popular right up until the price tag gets added to the question.
  - vundercind 2y ago
    It’s definitely not just that. You can ask people if they’d support a hypothetical social program and then describe a real one, warts and all (they’re usually not a tenth as bad as popularly supposed—you don’t need to shy away from the down sides to make them look good) and get very high rates of support. Name the actual program, and you get a “no” and a bunch of BS about it back. It’s a propaganda thing, it’s not the price tags. I mean, sometimes, sure, but you can go out all day long and get 20-30% swings in support for this stuff with straight descriptions (including costs) vs. the name under which a program has been vilified. [edit] one of the funniest ones is foreign aid. It’s commonly supposed to be way higher than it actually is (you’ll get answers like 5%, 10% of the budget, wildly wrong stuff) so you can consistently get people to agree that a “cut” to double what it actually is would be a great thing for a fiscally responsible candidate to propose. [edit edit] so point is the vast majority of voters have no clue what it is they’re opposing when they say they’re against lots of things they’re against. Describe it, and they’re on board. They don’t actually know what it is.
- cat_plus_plus 2y ago
  The problem is that Democratic policies do not result in promised outcomes. For example, higher minimum wage sounds good on paper, but then you have a hard time finding a job or affording basic essentials. So people become allergic to people who seem to bring decay. I am not saying Republican policies are a picture of practicality.

Suppafly 2y ago

>True-swing voters are a tiny minority. Honestly, just like undecided voters, they are either a myth or complete idiots.

2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago

Maybe but we have also seen a swing in how politics works (gotten more extreme). During the last two decades I've gone from Republican to Democrat to independent (never-Trumper, Democrat by GOP moral forfeit). I wonder how my beliefs would have evolved if US politics didn't grow so extreme over time.

WarOnPrivacy 2y ago
> Maybe but we have also seen a swing in how politics works (gotten more extreme). I've seen the same and done similar. I'm now in the unhappy position of voting against instead of voting for.
lolinder 2y ago
I'm in the same boat. I think everyone dramatically underestimates how many of us Trump refugees there are. Some of us are never trumpers and actually voted for Biden, some of us held our nose and voted for Trump. But the extreme right that fuels MAGA doesn't have as much support as people think, and the main reason why Trump stands a chance this year is because the left has made no overtures whatsoever to the center and center-right.
- vundercind 2y ago
  Going along with the… let’s say poorly supported by the facts notions that illegal immigrants are meaningful in terms of rising violent crime rates (which—to avoid accidentally contributing to the problem, no, they’re not rising) or fentanyl smuggling, and backing that not just with rhetoric but with policy in some cases is, I think, one thing the democratic campaigns believe they’re doing to reach out toward the center and center right. It’s definitely not aimed at democrats even a hair left of… idk, Reagan I guess, given the whole amnesty thing. So they are trying some stuff.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 2y ago
  My father was a straight-ticket Republican voter his entire life and now he says he will never vote for any MAGA Republican. He hates the MAGA takeover of the party. Though it's anecdotal, I agree that there are far more Trump refugees than people think. I also don't know any Democrats who have done the inverse and moved to the MAGA camp. Hopefully Trump's loss will be the final nail in the coffin for MAGA.
- wredcoll 2y ago
  > and the main reason why Trump stands a chance this year is because the left has made no overtures whatsoever to the center and center-right. People keep repeating this like it's some kind of obvious basic fact and I get more and more confused each time. How much more "center" can you get than Joe Biden? Or Hillary Clinton? Or Kamala Harris? As far as I know, they're all in favor of arresting illegal immigrants, using military power to further foreign policies, moderate taxation, little to no drug legalization, mass incarceration for felons, barely any gun control, etc, etc. What exactly is the "center-right" looking for that they're not getting? Every time the media (and social media) brings up self-described right wing desires, they're pretty much entirely culture war issues, is that what you mean?

jkestner 2y ago

That's the thing. When individual issues are polled without party labels, the Democratic Party's positions are largely popular. Just like these issues, if you were to put a Republican on the Democratic ticket, that candidate will lose support. We've seen repeatedly that Democrats going to the middle are met with supposedly moderate Republicans saying, "But not like that."

baggy_trough 2y ago
They are popular right up until the price tag gets added to the question.
- vundercind 2y ago
  It’s definitely not just that. You can ask people if they’d support a hypothetical social program and then describe a real one, warts and all (they’re usually not a tenth as bad as popularly supposed—you don’t need to shy away from the down sides to make them look good) and get very high rates of support. Name the actual program, and you get a “no” and a bunch of BS about it back. It’s a propaganda thing, it’s not the price tags. I mean, sometimes, sure, but you can go out all day long and get 20-30% swings in support for this stuff with straight descriptions (including costs) vs. the name under which a program has been vilified. [edit] one of the funniest ones is foreign aid. It’s commonly supposed to be way higher than it actually is (you’ll get answers like 5%, 10% of the budget, wildly wrong stuff) so you can consistently get people to agree that a “cut” to double what it actually is would be a great thing for a fiscally responsible candidate to propose. [edit edit] so point is the vast majority of voters have no clue what it is they’re opposing when they say they’re against lots of things they’re against. Describe it, and they’re on board. They don’t actually know what it is.
cat_plus_plus 2y ago
The problem is that Democratic policies do not result in promised outcomes. For example, higher minimum wage sounds good on paper, but then you have a hard time finding a job or affording basic essentials. So people become allergic to people who seem to bring decay. I am not saying Republican policies are a picture of practicality.