6 ms·

Genuine question: is the European right actually on the rise? It seems somewhat localized to France, where Macron just unexpectedly outmaneuvered both Le Pen's

Genuine question: is the European right actually on the rise? It seems somewhat localized to France, where Macron just unexpectedly outmaneuvered both Le Pen's party and the left coalition that formed to counter Le Pen, securing himself a surprise victory in the snap election everyone thought would be a disaster for him. In the EU as a whole, Ursula von der Leyen just won another 5 years as the President of the European Commission, which seems like a continuation of the status quo in the EU rather than a turn toward the right. This is all from my naive perspective as an American. Edit: I'd appreciate a reply instead of a downvote. As I said, I'm asking a genuine question.

jochem9 2y ago
Biggest party in the Netherlands is radical right (PVV). In France they barely got a parliamentary majority against Le Pen, in a country that's not particularly good at coalitions, so doesn't look like it will last. Hungary has been on the authoritorian track for quite some time. Poland just managed to get off it, but we'll have to see if it will stick. Italy got a neo-fascist. Generally you see radical right gaining more votes in Europe, even if they don't outright win everywhere. You also see that other parties adopt ideas from the far right. This means that policy is changing in that direction and that the discourse is more around those topics. Meanwhile research shows that this doesn't actually make voters vote less for the radical right parties, so those other parties are not gaining anything from it.
- nozzlegear 2y ago
  I see, thanks for the info! Interesting that Poland managed to get off the authoritarian track as you said, when they're so geographically close to being embroiled in war again. I'd think that would lead people to lean toward that kind of "follow the strong leader to get us through war" thinking, but obviously I'm glad it doesn't.
  - badpun 2y ago
    The right-wing party in Poland (PiS) still won the latest election (as in - got the most votes), but didn't anyone willing to form the coalition with them that would secure enough votes to form government - other major parties campaigned on being explicitly anti-PiS. So, even though PiS won, they are the opposition now, and the wide anti-PiS coalition is in power.
    - fakedang 2y ago
      Also to add, PIS was mired in the passports for sale scandal, which was a significant reason for them losing the election. People didn't vote against anti-immigration and far-right behavior, they voted against PIS hypocrisy.
  - aprilthird2021 2y ago
    Weirdly enough, the European far-right is pretty pro-Russia
    - ahartmetz 2y ago
      Makes one wonder whether they just like his fascist leadership style or there are some rather direct incentives involved. Russian secret services like to stir the pot in other countries in order to weaken them. A few German right-wing dudes seems to have more or less provably received money and favors from Russia. https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/deutschland/politik/bystron-razzia-ermittlungen-afd-russland-100.html https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/deutschland/politik/bystron-r... There was also that strange Russia-Trump connection for which there was insufficient proof...
      - lawn 2y ago
        It's an open secret that Marie Le Penn is financed by Russia.
mustafa_pasi 2y ago
The far-right parties are on the rise in most EU countries. But in most EU countries they have not managed to make it into government in enough numbers to be relevant, yet. But the rhetoric of the centrists/moderates has been shifting towards the right as well, on the topic of immigration, and especially with regards to certain ethnic groups.
byroot 2y ago
> securing himself a surprise victory in the snap election everyone thought would be a disaster for him. This is totally incorrect. Macron's party arrived 3rd in number of seats when previously it had a relative majority. He lost over a hundred seats in parliament and many key roles. Additionally his coalition is weakened because his allies really didn't appreciate his move and are already openly questioning his leadership. He is in a way worse position now than he was before the snap election, and while you can say nobody won, no one can seriously question the fact that Macron lost hard. As for the rise of the far right, it's happening in more countries than just France: Germany, Netherland, Italy, etc.
- nozzlegear 2y ago
  > He is in a way worse position now than he was before the snap election, and while you can say nobody won, no one can seriously question the fact that Macron lost hard. Good point. I replied to another comment below, I'd been reading political commentary/analysis saying that maybe his goal was to defang Le Pen's party by letting the French people see what they'd do with power before the election in 2027. But as far as I'm aware he never actually said that was his goal, it's just a guess, and from a hard numbers perspective he called a snap election and lost seats.
  - byroot 2y ago
    > maybe his goal was to defang Le Pen's party by letting the French people see what they'd do with power before the election in 2027 That's what he said in private at some point, but that wasn't his initial plan. We have another reported conversation that explain his plan was to benefit from the divided left to reconquer an absolute majority for himself. It's only after the left managed to make a coalition that he started floating this idea of letting the far right ridicule itself. But even if that's a stupid plan, he haven't achieved that either, the far right gained over 50 seats, and their electorate are now even more angry because they consider they got robbed of the election. So no idea what commentary you were reading, but I'd recommend not to trust that source ever again on that topic at least.
    - 2y ago
occz 2y ago
It's on the rise, yeah. It's not just France. The UK may have just managed to get a majority, but that's a peculiarity of their electoral system. As a fraction of the votes, their far right gained a larger share than in previous years. Similar effects can be observed in plenty of countries, among those Sweden, Germany to some extent, Italy, Hungary has been way left for a long time, etc.
- youngtaff 2y ago
  Comparing the most recent election in the UK and the one before it the vote for the right (Reform) increased by 2% points (14% overall) versus the vote share for UKIP in 2019 The other right wing parties (Conservatives, DUP) got 25% between them Where as the more progressive parties got over 50% of the vote - Greens got 6%, LibDems 12%, Labour 34% plus SNP and Plaid Cymru To say the right did well in the UK election just isn’t true
- chgs 2y ago
  Depends if you consider Tory as “far right” now and not a decade ago. Farage got 12.6% in 2015 and 14.3% in 2024. That’s not a massive increase. Tory vote meanwhile fell from 37% to 19% On the centre-left side, In 2015 Lib/Lab got 38%, by 2025 that had increased to 46% On the left side the greens increased from 4% to 6.5%
  - fakedang 2y ago
    To be honest, the UK elections might be parliamentary, but they have a very Presidential character to them, just as is the case in India and Canada. People still vote for the PM face. This time, they didn't want to vote in Rishi. Put Boris Johnson on the ticket, and I'm certain the results would have been extremely different.
    - chgs 2y ago
      Not round here, massive support fur incumbant local mp even from those that vote another way at council elections
331c8c71 2y ago
There's no "EU as a whole". Europe is made of vastly different countries with their own politics and the people care much more about the national politics compared to EU level politics (at least based on what I have seen). It doesn't help that the EU parliament (elected directly) does not have much power compared to the commission.
thrance 2y ago
Here in France, the media isn't so prompt as to call last election's results a "victory" for Macron's party. Quite the contrary, his party now finds itself with (considerably) less parliament seats that it had, and when it could get a majority by appealing to the "moderate" right, he now has to compromise with the opposition. His party doesn't even hold a relative majority anymore. Sadly my country hasn't been the only European one where fascism is creeping up again. The far rights came out on top in the last European Parliament election in Belgium, Italy, Austria, Hungary and France. In the other countries, its scores are steadily, dreadfully, increasing with each passing election. Personally, I blame the increasing economic inequality and austerity politics lead in Europe since the 80s.
- fakedang 2y ago
  My personal opinion as a non-European who has voted in the UK elections as a Commonwealth citizen: the far-right tends to win broad support in European Parliament elections mostly as a reactionary bulwark against the EU's Open Borders policy (and rightly so). People tend to vote somewhat rationally for national elections. Honestly, from my perspective, the rise of rampant immigration (and that too contributed by people of my community) is going to damage the entirety of Europe in the long run. Already I've seen firsthand the skewing of the demographic pyramid in the younger generation (0-18 yrs), a lack of worthwhile job prospects for second generation immigrants, and the rising tide of anti-national behaviors from members of migrant communities. As Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed rightly said, the next generation of terrorists will not come from Saudi Arabia or the Middle East, but from Europe. The kind of venom that mosques here in Europe spew is much worse than the extremely highly-monitored mosque sermons in the Middle East, from Egypt to Oman. From my Muslim perspective, Europe will be a lost cause in a single generation, unless there is a MASSIVE cultural upheaval that stomps and quashes the current migratory trend. Austerity and inequality are just the sparks, but the bigger powder keg is the growing base of increasingly alienated migrants who have to face the austerity and inequality (see Leeds riots very recently). European society was never structured to take in so many incompatible migrants like American society is.
  - thrance 2y ago

jochem9 2y ago

Biggest party in the Netherlands is radical right (PVV). In France they barely got a parliamentary majority against Le Pen, in a country that's not particularly good at coalitions, so doesn't look like it will last. Hungary has been on the authoritorian track for quite some time. Poland just managed to get off it, but we'll have to see if it will stick. Italy got a neo-fascist. Generally you see radical right gaining more votes in Europe, even if they don't outright win everywhere. You also see that other parties adopt ideas from the far right. This means that policy is changing in that direction and that the discourse is more around those topics. Meanwhile research shows that this doesn't actually make voters vote less for the radical right parties, so those other parties are not gaining anything from it.

nozzlegear 2y ago
I see, thanks for the info! Interesting that Poland managed to get off the authoritarian track as you said, when they're so geographically close to being embroiled in war again. I'd think that would lead people to lean toward that kind of "follow the strong leader to get us through war" thinking, but obviously I'm glad it doesn't.
- badpun 2y ago
  The right-wing party in Poland (PiS) still won the latest election (as in - got the most votes), but didn't anyone willing to form the coalition with them that would secure enough votes to form government - other major parties campaigned on being explicitly anti-PiS. So, even though PiS won, they are the opposition now, and the wide anti-PiS coalition is in power.
  - fakedang 2y ago
    Also to add, PIS was mired in the passports for sale scandal, which was a significant reason for them losing the election. People didn't vote against anti-immigration and far-right behavior, they voted against PIS hypocrisy.
- aprilthird2021 2y ago
  Weirdly enough, the European far-right is pretty pro-Russia
  - ahartmetz 2y ago
    Makes one wonder whether they just like his fascist leadership style or there are some rather direct incentives involved. Russian secret services like to stir the pot in other countries in order to weaken them. A few German right-wing dudes seems to have more or less provably received money and favors from Russia. https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/deutschland/politik/bystron-razzia-ermittlungen-afd-russland-100.html https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/deutschland/politik/bystron-r... There was also that strange Russia-Trump connection for which there was insufficient proof...
    - lawn 2y ago
      It's an open secret that Marie Le Penn is financed by Russia.

mustafa_pasi 2y ago

The far-right parties are on the rise in most EU countries. But in most EU countries they have not managed to make it into government in enough numbers to be relevant, yet. But the rhetoric of the centrists/moderates has been shifting towards the right as well, on the topic of immigration, and especially with regards to certain ethnic groups.

byroot 2y ago

> securing himself a surprise victory in the snap election everyone thought would be a disaster for him. This is totally incorrect. Macron's party arrived 3rd in number of seats when previously it had a relative majority. He lost over a hundred seats in parliament and many key roles. Additionally his coalition is weakened because his allies really didn't appreciate his move and are already openly questioning his leadership. He is in a way worse position now than he was before the snap election, and while you can say nobody won, no one can seriously question the fact that Macron lost hard. As for the rise of the far right, it's happening in more countries than just France: Germany, Netherland, Italy, etc.

nozzlegear 2y ago
> He is in a way worse position now than he was before the snap election, and while you can say nobody won, no one can seriously question the fact that Macron lost hard. Good point. I replied to another comment below, I'd been reading political commentary/analysis saying that maybe his goal was to defang Le Pen's party by letting the French people see what they'd do with power before the election in 2027. But as far as I'm aware he never actually said that was his goal, it's just a guess, and from a hard numbers perspective he called a snap election and lost seats.
- byroot 2y ago
  > maybe his goal was to defang Le Pen's party by letting the French people see what they'd do with power before the election in 2027 That's what he said in private at some point, but that wasn't his initial plan. We have another reported conversation that explain his plan was to benefit from the divided left to reconquer an absolute majority for himself. It's only after the left managed to make a coalition that he started floating this idea of letting the far right ridicule itself. But even if that's a stupid plan, he haven't achieved that either, the far right gained over 50 seats, and their electorate are now even more angry because they consider they got robbed of the election. So no idea what commentary you were reading, but I'd recommend not to trust that source ever again on that topic at least.
  - 2y ago

occz 2y ago

It's on the rise, yeah. It's not just France. The UK may have just managed to get a majority, but that's a peculiarity of their electoral system. As a fraction of the votes, their far right gained a larger share than in previous years. Similar effects can be observed in plenty of countries, among those Sweden, Germany to some extent, Italy, Hungary has been way left for a long time, etc.

youngtaff 2y ago
Comparing the most recent election in the UK and the one before it the vote for the right (Reform) increased by 2% points (14% overall) versus the vote share for UKIP in 2019 The other right wing parties (Conservatives, DUP) got 25% between them Where as the more progressive parties got over 50% of the vote - Greens got 6%, LibDems 12%, Labour 34% plus SNP and Plaid Cymru To say the right did well in the UK election just isn’t true
chgs 2y ago
Depends if you consider Tory as “far right” now and not a decade ago. Farage got 12.6% in 2015 and 14.3% in 2024. That’s not a massive increase. Tory vote meanwhile fell from 37% to 19% On the centre-left side, In 2015 Lib/Lab got 38%, by 2025 that had increased to 46% On the left side the greens increased from 4% to 6.5%
- fakedang 2y ago
  To be honest, the UK elections might be parliamentary, but they have a very Presidential character to them, just as is the case in India and Canada. People still vote for the PM face. This time, they didn't want to vote in Rishi. Put Boris Johnson on the ticket, and I'm certain the results would have been extremely different.
  - chgs 2y ago
    Not round here, massive support fur incumbant local mp even from those that vote another way at council elections

331c8c71 2y ago

There's no "EU as a whole". Europe is made of vastly different countries with their own politics and the people care much more about the national politics compared to EU level politics (at least based on what I have seen). It doesn't help that the EU parliament (elected directly) does not have much power compared to the commission.

thrance 2y ago

Here in France, the media isn't so prompt as to call last election's results a "victory" for Macron's party. Quite the contrary, his party now finds itself with (considerably) less parliament seats that it had, and when it could get a majority by appealing to the "moderate" right, he now has to compromise with the opposition. His party doesn't even hold a relative majority anymore. Sadly my country hasn't been the only European one where fascism is creeping up again. The far rights came out on top in the last European Parliament election in Belgium, Italy, Austria, Hungary and France. In the other countries, its scores are steadily, dreadfully, increasing with each passing election. Personally, I blame the increasing economic inequality and austerity politics lead in Europe since the 80s.

fakedang 2y ago
My personal opinion as a non-European who has voted in the UK elections as a Commonwealth citizen: the far-right tends to win broad support in European Parliament elections mostly as a reactionary bulwark against the EU's Open Borders policy (and rightly so). People tend to vote somewhat rationally for national elections. Honestly, from my perspective, the rise of rampant immigration (and that too contributed by people of my community) is going to damage the entirety of Europe in the long run. Already I've seen firsthand the skewing of the demographic pyramid in the younger generation (0-18 yrs), a lack of worthwhile job prospects for second generation immigrants, and the rising tide of anti-national behaviors from members of migrant communities. As Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed rightly said, the next generation of terrorists will not come from Saudi Arabia or the Middle East, but from Europe. The kind of venom that mosques here in Europe spew is much worse than the extremely highly-monitored mosque sermons in the Middle East, from Egypt to Oman. From my Muslim perspective, Europe will be a lost cause in a single generation, unless there is a MASSIVE cultural upheaval that stomps and quashes the current migratory trend. Austerity and inequality are just the sparks, but the bigger powder keg is the growing base of increasingly alienated migrants who have to face the austerity and inequality (see Leeds riots very recently). European society was never structured to take in so many incompatible migrants like American society is.
- thrance 2y ago