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If Russia is holding back, it seems like a strategic error. Why have they not brought in more conventional weaponry and personnel if it would bring them victor

If Russia is holding back, it seems like a strategic error. Why have they not brought in more conventional weaponry and personnel if it would bring them victory? I would guess that NATO planners have been adjusting their assessment of what Russia is capable of when completely mobilized. The answer sure looks a lot like "way weaker than we imagined, pretty well ineffective in the face of significant resistance, the only reason to pay any attention them at all is they have ~half the nuclear weapons worldwide."

kjkjadksj 2y ago
Simple game theory. If they escalate the conflict there is a potential that western allies would also escalate the conflict in response. Russia tows the line between funding a minor conflict and disruption of their domestic economy in favor of a centrally planned wartime economy. Having an active conflict to engage in is also a benefit in and of itself. The U.S. for example is the most advanced military in the world because they have engaged in more or less a continuous series of conflicts since WWII that allow them a unique opportunity to experiment in tactics and technology that for most other nations remains theoretical and simulated.
- AndriyKunitsyn 2y ago
  So, in addition to the losses figures from before, there was a major mutiny, with a 1mln city (Rostov-on-Don) captured for a day, with 7 units of aircraft downed. And recently the Russian ministry of interior released figures that cases of organized crime have risen by 76% compared to a period before 2022 [_], because that's what happens when you take a bunch of convicts - some of which were convicted for life - and give them all a "get out of jail" card for 6 months of running with a gun. You are claiming this is actually beneficial for the Russian Federation because all of that is outweighed by experiments in tactics, correct? [_] https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/15/mvd-otchitalos-oroste-orgprestupnosti-na76-posle-massovogo-vozvrascheniya-zekov-svoini-a136753 https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/15/mvd-otchitalos-oroste-...
  - kjkjadksj 2y ago
    Things can be good for the military establishment and bad for the people. Being able to iterate on military tech in an active conflict is a unique opportunity for military planners and engineers. Just look at the united states military and how much was learned in the last couple decades of war.

kjkjadksj 2y ago

Simple game theory. If they escalate the conflict there is a potential that western allies would also escalate the conflict in response. Russia tows the line between funding a minor conflict and disruption of their domestic economy in favor of a centrally planned wartime economy. Having an active conflict to engage in is also a benefit in and of itself. The U.S. for example is the most advanced military in the world because they have engaged in more or less a continuous series of conflicts since WWII that allow them a unique opportunity to experiment in tactics and technology that for most other nations remains theoretical and simulated.

AndriyKunitsyn 2y ago
So, in addition to the losses figures from before, there was a major mutiny, with a 1mln city (Rostov-on-Don) captured for a day, with 7 units of aircraft downed. And recently the Russian ministry of interior released figures that cases of organized crime have risen by 76% compared to a period before 2022 [_], because that's what happens when you take a bunch of convicts - some of which were convicted for life - and give them all a "get out of jail" card for 6 months of running with a gun. You are claiming this is actually beneficial for the Russian Federation because all of that is outweighed by experiments in tactics, correct? [_] https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/15/mvd-otchitalos-oroste-orgprestupnosti-na76-posle-massovogo-vozvrascheniya-zekov-svoini-a136753 https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/07/15/mvd-otchitalos-oroste-...
- kjkjadksj 2y ago
  Things can be good for the military establishment and bad for the people. Being able to iterate on military tech in an active conflict is a unique opportunity for military planners and engineers. Just look at the united states military and how much was learned in the last couple decades of war.