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I don't think that "number of deaths" is a proxy for "infrastructure stops working". One of the worlds (what we thought) super powers has been trying for the l

by ArnoVW 2y ago

I don't think that "number of deaths" is a proxy for "infrastructure stops working". One of the worlds (what we thought) super powers has been trying for the last two years to destroy the infrastructure of a country with 33M inhabitants. They may not have fully mobilised, but they are definitely spending all their military equipment. Long range / tactical missiles. Air assets. Naval assets. Cyber warfare. The result in Ukraine : unimaginable human suffering, but electricity and the internet are still working over there. When the nukes start flying, that's another matter though. But in that case our problem will not be that our credit cards stop working.

kjkjadksj 2y ago
They are very much not sending all their equipment. They are very much not in a total war economy. The conflict is highly constrained. In an unconstrained war, Kyiv would be leveled already. Ukraine would be plowed over. Western powers have done a lot of work to set up guardrails for this conflict. The modern russian army is 1/30th the size of the red army, for reference on present level of mobilization and what is theoretically capable of being employed should russia actually be fighting a war for survival of the russian state.
- ArnoVW 2y ago
  You are again talking about mobilisation. Yes. They can enlist millions of untrained men. But in terms of total assets deployed, they are currently all-in. Attrition being what it is, they are reducing their Soviet stockpiles at a prodigious rate and are currently activating 40’s and 50’s equipment. This is all extremely well documented by open sources. People are counting tanks on military bases using satellite images. Check out Perun on YouTube. He’s a defense economics expert that posts a 70 minute PowerPoint presentation every Sunday, complete with sources and references. https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
  - kjkjadksj 2y ago
    Well yeah its still not going all out even if they are using what they have. Russia going all out produces like 1500 t34 a month, 3000 PPSH a day. Like I have been trying to mention, they aren’t in total war mode. People are still working for domestic companies doing normal work. They aren’t being conscripted to tank factories. If they were it would be a different story that’s for sure.
    - acdha 2y ago
      Where are you getting those production numbers from? This isn’t a video game where every turn the bear player gets 1,500 new tanks — their true capacity depends on complex supply chains, skilled people, and the impact of sanctions on their ability to pay for everything. You’re claiming figures at least order of magnitude higher than they’re reportedly hitting, and it’s really hard to believe that they’re slacking that hard on a core part of a war critical to Putin staying in power.
      - kjkjadksj 2y ago
        I’m citing wwii production numbers

by ArnoVW 2y ago

kjkjadksj 2y ago

They are very much not sending all their equipment. They are very much not in a total war economy. The conflict is highly constrained. In an unconstrained war, Kyiv would be leveled already. Ukraine would be plowed over. Western powers have done a lot of work to set up guardrails for this conflict. The modern russian army is 1/30th the size of the red army, for reference on present level of mobilization and what is theoretically capable of being employed should russia actually be fighting a war for survival of the russian state.

ArnoVW 2y ago
You are again talking about mobilisation. Yes. They can enlist millions of untrained men. But in terms of total assets deployed, they are currently all-in. Attrition being what it is, they are reducing their Soviet stockpiles at a prodigious rate and are currently activating 40’s and 50’s equipment. This is all extremely well documented by open sources. People are counting tanks on military bases using satellite images. Check out Perun on YouTube. He’s a defense economics expert that posts a 70 minute PowerPoint presentation every Sunday, complete with sources and references. https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
- kjkjadksj 2y ago
  Well yeah its still not going all out even if they are using what they have. Russia going all out produces like 1500 t34 a month, 3000 PPSH a day. Like I have been trying to mention, they aren’t in total war mode. People are still working for domestic companies doing normal work. They aren’t being conscripted to tank factories. If they were it would be a different story that’s for sure.
  - acdha 2y ago
    Where are you getting those production numbers from? This isn’t a video game where every turn the bear player gets 1,500 new tanks — their true capacity depends on complex supply chains, skilled people, and the impact of sanctions on their ability to pay for everything. You’re claiming figures at least order of magnitude higher than they’re reportedly hitting, and it’s really hard to believe that they’re slacking that hard on a core part of a war critical to Putin staying in power.
    - kjkjadksj 2y ago
      I’m citing wwii production numbers