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I hope they make out of this recent recession but people should be cautious in using words like "the economy surged" when describing a 1.3% increase in economi

I hope they make out of this recent recession but people should be cautious in using words like "the economy surged" when describing a 1.3% increase in economic activity. If anything, Argentina is known for being a economic rollercoaster fueled by populist after populist government. It never works out and the current situation seems like more of the same.

dmix 2y ago
Their inflation has been a rollercoaster but their GDP per capita has pretty consistently been on a downward trend for half a century. https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa3cb276-5b1b-44c2-8bfa-60057e48fbcd_720x448.webp https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_... Also calling the politics just a series of populists does not accurately represent the economic agendas which have been exactly the same thing (basically left leaning populism via a heavy administrative state) repeated ad nauseam with the exact same outcome. The whole reason Milei won was because the competition was from the same parties as always, proposing the same solutions as always, and he was the only one demanding something change, so people saw it as and opportunity and looked past the more radical stuff he was saying.
- viraptor 2y ago
  > Also calling the politics just a series of populists does not accurately represent the economic agendas which have been exactly the same thing (basically left leaning populism via a heavy administrative state) I don't understand this paragraph. It's not a series of populists, because it's been the same populist agendas? Is there some typo?
  - zpeti 2y ago
    I think maybe OP is thinking “populist” generally is a slur for non-social democrat right wing governments these days.
  - dmix 2y ago
    I see a distinction between economics and politics messaging. If the economics agenda is exactly the same that's all that matters to this discussion. When every gov before him did the exact same pattern of going repeatedly goes into huge debt and uses gov social/economics projects to fix things, then the variations in their populists messaging is not really relevant.
Findeton 2y ago
I'd say you don't know what you're talking about. Milei cut back government spending by 30% from the first month on (that's a 15% gdp of spending cuts in a month), and achieved fiscal surplus/superavit on that month. Contrary to the (very wrong) keynsian economics, deficit spending doesn't promote economic growth and Milei's measures and results demonstrate that actually having a smaller government with surplus promotes economic growth.
- skissane 2y ago
  > and achieved fiscal superavit I didn't understand what you mean by "superavit" Then I realised you are using the Spanish word superávit instead of its English equivalent "surplus"
- kspacewalk2 2y ago
  I'd say you don't really understand Keynesian economics, also known as macroecon 101. Nowhere is it claimed that deficit spending promotes economic growth indefinitely and in all circumstances. Deficit spending (or just more spending, whether financed by deficits or not) can, and demonstrably does, temporarily dampen the effects of economic downturns. It can also promote economic growth if investments that are made will enable longer-term growth, e.g. by investing in infrastructure, education or research. Clearly none of that prescribes structural deficits ad infinitum and spending your way to hyperinflation in order to make good on idiotic populist promises, otherwise known as Argentinian macroecon 101 before Milei. The fact that it took chainsaw guy to trick Argentinians into electing someone who implements adult policies is a damning indictment of the average Argentinian voters, so I'd say leave poor John Maynard Keynes out of it, no one in Argentina was listening to him anyway, possibly ever. Also, just say surplus.
  - Findeton 2y ago
    Well, Argentina has been in recession for more than a decade. Now, he's cut 30% of the government spending and... the economy is back to growth. So, sorry for destroying your Keynesian beliefs.
    - 2y ago
roenxi 2y ago
And this is the sort of thing there really needs to be a big "what matters?" conversation. 1% GDP growth is not important. With growth rates like that, what matters is sustaining 1% growth over 10-20 years so that the impacts become material. I hope Argentina is doing well, maybe Argentina is doing well, but this article contains no evidence Argentina is doing well, badly or otherwise. And by all the heavens, could people please resist the urge to try and judge economic performance after a candidate has been in office for 1 quarter. Good economic management takes requires a decade or so before the fruits ripen. And mad scheme can work for 12 months and goose the figures if people care to.
sofixa 2y ago
> If anything, Argentina is known for being a economic rollercoaster fueled by populist after populist government. It never works out and the current situation seems like more of the same As the saying goes, there are 4 types of economies. Developed, developing, Japan (stagnation for decades with no negative ramification as normally would be expected) and Argentina (basket case).
- AstralStorm 2y ago
  The negative ramification for Japanese economy is demographics. This kind of stagnation with no serious full employment kills remaining hopes of future generation, prevents them from owning housing and causes negative birth rates resulting in further collapse of social security plus social problems.

dmix 2y ago

Their inflation has been a rollercoaster but their GDP per capita has pretty consistently been on a downward trend for half a century. https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa3cb276-5b1b-44c2-8bfa-60057e48fbcd_720x448.webp https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_... Also calling the politics just a series of populists does not accurately represent the economic agendas which have been exactly the same thing (basically left leaning populism via a heavy administrative state) repeated ad nauseam with the exact same outcome. The whole reason Milei won was because the competition was from the same parties as always, proposing the same solutions as always, and he was the only one demanding something change, so people saw it as and opportunity and looked past the more radical stuff he was saying.

viraptor 2y ago
> Also calling the politics just a series of populists does not accurately represent the economic agendas which have been exactly the same thing (basically left leaning populism via a heavy administrative state) I don't understand this paragraph. It's not a series of populists, because it's been the same populist agendas? Is there some typo?
- zpeti 2y ago
  I think maybe OP is thinking “populist” generally is a slur for non-social democrat right wing governments these days.
- dmix 2y ago
  I see a distinction between economics and politics messaging. If the economics agenda is exactly the same that's all that matters to this discussion. When every gov before him did the exact same pattern of going repeatedly goes into huge debt and uses gov social/economics projects to fix things, then the variations in their populists messaging is not really relevant.

Findeton 2y ago

I'd say you don't know what you're talking about. Milei cut back government spending by 30% from the first month on (that's a 15% gdp of spending cuts in a month), and achieved fiscal surplus/superavit on that month. Contrary to the (very wrong) keynsian economics, deficit spending doesn't promote economic growth and Milei's measures and results demonstrate that actually having a smaller government with surplus promotes economic growth.

skissane 2y ago
> and achieved fiscal superavit I didn't understand what you mean by "superavit" Then I realised you are using the Spanish word superávit instead of its English equivalent "surplus"
kspacewalk2 2y ago
I'd say you don't really understand Keynesian economics, also known as macroecon 101. Nowhere is it claimed that deficit spending promotes economic growth indefinitely and in all circumstances. Deficit spending (or just more spending, whether financed by deficits or not) can, and demonstrably does, temporarily dampen the effects of economic downturns. It can also promote economic growth if investments that are made will enable longer-term growth, e.g. by investing in infrastructure, education or research. Clearly none of that prescribes structural deficits ad infinitum and spending your way to hyperinflation in order to make good on idiotic populist promises, otherwise known as Argentinian macroecon 101 before Milei. The fact that it took chainsaw guy to trick Argentinians into electing someone who implements adult policies is a damning indictment of the average Argentinian voters, so I'd say leave poor John Maynard Keynes out of it, no one in Argentina was listening to him anyway, possibly ever. Also, just say surplus.
- Findeton 2y ago
  Well, Argentina has been in recession for more than a decade. Now, he's cut 30% of the government spending and... the economy is back to growth. So, sorry for destroying your Keynesian beliefs.
  - 2y ago

roenxi 2y ago

And this is the sort of thing there really needs to be a big "what matters?" conversation. 1% GDP growth is not important. With growth rates like that, what matters is sustaining 1% growth over 10-20 years so that the impacts become material. I hope Argentina is doing well, maybe Argentina is doing well, but this article contains no evidence Argentina is doing well, badly or otherwise. And by all the heavens, could people please resist the urge to try and judge economic performance after a candidate has been in office for 1 quarter. Good economic management takes requires a decade or so before the fruits ripen. And mad scheme can work for 12 months and goose the figures if people care to.

sofixa 2y ago

> If anything, Argentina is known for being a economic rollercoaster fueled by populist after populist government. It never works out and the current situation seems like more of the same As the saying goes, there are 4 types of economies. Developed, developing, Japan (stagnation for decades with no negative ramification as normally would be expected) and Argentina (basket case).

AstralStorm 2y ago
The negative ramification for Japanese economy is demographics. This kind of stagnation with no serious full employment kills remaining hopes of future generation, prevents them from owning housing and causes negative birth rates resulting in further collapse of social security plus social problems.