5 ms·

I've heard people argue that its both too aggressive and too conservative. I'm in the too conservative camp, we need to figure things out sooner than 100 years

I've heard people argue that its both too aggressive and too conservative. I'm in the too conservative camp, we need to figure things out sooner than 100 years and the risk of a feedback loop is high with methane. Its fine to assert that a single number doesn't capture the nuances of the situation. But we have to keep in mind that 1) the heat trapped by the methane stays trapped even after it has decayed 2) methane concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing significantly faster than co2 3) the more methane in the atmosphere the slower its rate of decay

thfuran 2y ago
>1) the heat trapped by the methane stays trapped even after it has decayed Not really. It would be present, but not trapped. Absent other factors, that would mean earth is above its equilibrium temperature and would cool once methane loss permits it to radiate heat more effectively. Either that or it shoots us in the face with a clathrate gun. There's really only one way to find out.
- matthewdgreen 2y ago
  Let’s not find out if there’s a clathrate gun coming for us? Please?
Retric 2y ago
1) Over days sure, but not on the relevant timescales. 2) In terms of impact on climate the difference from 1990 to 2024 is mostly from CO2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane#/media/File:1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane#/media/Fil... 3) It’s nonlinear, increasing methane concentrations also benefit methane scavenging bacteria which should increase the rate of breakdown as concentrations increase. OH only lasts around 1 second in the atmosphere so in theory it should be depleted by increasing atmospheric methane, but methane is only one of several things it reacts with so the difference is minimal without orders of magnitude change in Methane.
- ljf 2y ago
  Don't forget that Methane decays into water vapour and CO2

thfuran 2y ago

>1) the heat trapped by the methane stays trapped even after it has decayed Not really. It would be present, but not trapped. Absent other factors, that would mean earth is above its equilibrium temperature and would cool once methane loss permits it to radiate heat more effectively. Either that or it shoots us in the face with a clathrate gun. There's really only one way to find out.

matthewdgreen 2y ago
Let’s not find out if there’s a clathrate gun coming for us? Please?

Retric 2y ago

1) Over days sure, but not on the relevant timescales. 2) In terms of impact on climate the difference from 1990 to 2024 is mostly from CO2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane#/media/File:1979-_Radiative_forcing_-_climate_change_-_global_warming_-_EPA_NOAA.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane#/media/Fil... 3) It’s nonlinear, increasing methane concentrations also benefit methane scavenging bacteria which should increase the rate of breakdown as concentrations increase. OH only lasts around 1 second in the atmosphere so in theory it should be depleted by increasing atmospheric methane, but methane is only one of several things it reacts with so the difference is minimal without orders of magnitude change in Methane.

ljf 2y ago
Don't forget that Methane decays into water vapour and CO2