3 ms·

538 without Nate Silver is like Apple without Steve Jobs. Probably worse.

threeseed 2y ago
Pretty tortured analogy made worse by the fact that Apple is on every metric a more successful company after Steve Jobs.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  They are also a company that exists outside of history books thanks to Steve Jobs.
- xnx 2y ago
  They might be referring to the early 1990's Apple, before Steve Jobs came back.
  - ggm 2y ago
    The one experientially almost nobody in the cohort today experienced.
    - jvanderbot 2y ago
      I wasn't a consumer back then but I absolutely know the analogy and followed the logic.
      - ggm 2y ago
        Yes it's a compelling analogy. I just find it striking this event is closer to the end of the Vietnam war 22 years before Job's return to Apple in 1997, than the 27 years from 97 to today. There are almost certainly HN readers who weren't alive in 97, and yet the Jobs story works much as "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it" vietnam era quotes work: they're part of the culture now. I doubt we have many 13 year old HN people but it won't be long before there's a cohort here who lived entirely in a post Jobs world.
- kaonwarb 2y ago
  Some things that matter can't be measured.
  - danielmarkbruce 2y ago
    Seriously. A very wise man once said as much.
cududa 2y ago
Yeah but also Nate went to work for a Thiel company so take whatever he says with that context
safety1st 2y ago
Whatever else may be the case, it was certainly interesting to learn the following: * That the model which 538 used up until 2022 puts Biden's chances of winning at 28% * That the new model (which puts the candidates at "about even") is owned by Disney Yeah, that tracks.
- threeseed 2y ago
  You do know that the 538 model in 2022 was inaccurate as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2020_U.S._elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2020_U.S._elec...
  - itsdrewmiller 2y ago
    There is nothing about the 2022 election at that link.

Pretty tortured analogy made worse by the fact that Apple is on every metric a more successful company after Steve Jobs.

SoftTalker 2y ago
They are also a company that exists outside of history books thanks to Steve Jobs.
xnx 2y ago
They might be referring to the early 1990's Apple, before Steve Jobs came back.
- ggm 2y ago
  The one experientially almost nobody in the cohort today experienced.
  - jvanderbot 2y ago
    I wasn't a consumer back then but I absolutely know the analogy and followed the logic.
    - ggm 2y ago
      Yes it's a compelling analogy. I just find it striking this event is closer to the end of the Vietnam war 22 years before Job's return to Apple in 1997, than the 27 years from 97 to today. There are almost certainly HN readers who weren't alive in 97, and yet the Jobs story works much as "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it" vietnam era quotes work: they're part of the culture now. I doubt we have many 13 year old HN people but it won't be long before there's a cohort here who lived entirely in a post Jobs world.
kaonwarb 2y ago
Some things that matter can't be measured.
- danielmarkbruce 2y ago
  Seriously. A very wise man once said as much.

cududa 2y ago

Yeah but also Nate went to work for a Thiel company so take whatever he says with that context

safety1st 2y ago

Whatever else may be the case, it was certainly interesting to learn the following: * That the model which 538 used up until 2022 puts Biden's chances of winning at 28% * That the new model (which puts the candidates at "about even") is owned by Disney Yeah, that tracks.

threeseed 2y ago
You do know that the 538 model in 2022 was inaccurate as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2020_U.S._elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2020_U.S._elec...
- itsdrewmiller 2y ago
  There is nothing about the 2022 election at that link.