That is interesting, where does he talk about this? I'm curious to hear his reasoning. What I remember from the Black Swan is that Black Swan events are (1) rar

That is interesting, where does he talk about this? I'm curious to hear his reasoning. What I remember from the Black Swan is that Black Swan events are (1) rare, (2) have a non-linear/massive impact, (3) and easy to predict retrospectively. That is, a lot of people will say "of course that happened" after the fact but were never too concerned about it beforehand. Apart from a few doomsdayers I am not aware of anybody was warning us about a crowd strike type of event. I do not know much about public health but it was my understanding that there were playbooks for an epidemic. Even if we had a proper playbook (and we likely do), the failure is so distributed that one would need a lot of books and a lot of incident commanders to fix the problem. We are dead in the water.