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I was wondering when someone would bring up Taleb RE: this incident. I know you aren't saying it is, but I think Taleb would argue that this incident, as he di
by _yb2s 2y ago
I was wondering when someone would bring up Taleb RE: this incident.
I know you aren't saying it is, but I think Taleb would argue that this incident, as he did with the coronavirus pandemic for example, isn't even a Black Swan event. It was extremely easy to predict, and you had a large number of experts warning people about it for years but being ignored. A Black Swan is unpredictable and unexpected, not something totally predictable that you decided not to prepare for anyways.
- realNNT 2y agoThat is interesting, where does he talk about this? I'm curious to hear his reasoning. What I remember from the Black Swan is that Black Swan events are (1) rare, (2) have a non-linear/massive impact, (3) and easy to predict retrospectively. That is, a lot of people will say "of course that happened" after the fact but were never too concerned about it beforehand. Apart from a few doomsdayers I am not aware of anybody was warning us about a crowd strike type of event. I do not know much about public health but it was my understanding that there were playbooks for an epidemic. Even if we had a proper playbook (and we likely do), the failure is so distributed that one would need a lot of books and a lot of incident commanders to fix the problem. We are dead in the water.
- yeauldfellows 2y agoI think Grey Rhino is the term to use. Risks that we can see and acknowledge yet do nothing about.