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I imagine they’ll have an unfortunate demand shortage when China invades next year and the US refuses to intervene.

markles 2y ago
There's such a low probability of that happening, even if the US turns their back on Taiwan. It would likely result in Taiwan and Japan, at the least, rapidly building nuclear weapons. Then they'd trade the occasional word and politician would make grand gestures, but continue business as usual.
- zja 2y ago
  How would Taiwan start a nuclear program if they get invaded?
  - jandrewrogers 2y ago
    Taiwan does not need to start a nuclear program. Taiwan has previously completed everything except final assembly of a nuke, so they have the capability in principle. There are a number of countries that have never built nukes but that are believed to possess all of necessary components to rapidly assemble nukes should they feel it necessary, it is a gray area in nuclear non-proliferation. For international accounting purposes, a disassembled warhead sitting on a shelf somewhere doesn't count as a nuke, they only count systems. Invasions are unavoidably telegraphed months ahead of time, which is more than enough time to assemble a nuke if you have already have the components.
    - threatofrain 2y ago
      I have a feeling that China is very prepared to invade with extreme haste and their intelligence agencies would not let something like this go unnoticed.
      - boristsr 2y ago
        The sheer logistics of a large scale mobilization means that its obvious weeks and even months in advance. Moving troops, equipment and ammunition to staging areas etc. Even just preparing transports shows up. Think back to the weeks before the Ukrainian invasion. It's kinda hard to hide it.
        threatofrain 2y ago
        As far as I know, China has not been hiding this preparation. They are actively preparing to invade Taiwan, at least for the sake of appearances so that they can be seen doing so.
    - maxglute 2y ago
      TW is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey potential isn't as fast as PLA rockets/bunker busters. Unmentioned aspect of US axing TW nuclear program in late 80s, was CSIST / INER (Taiwan nuclear program) was already monitored by PRC intelligence and post Nixon normalization US intel cooperated with PRC intel to shut the program down. Unwritten between the line is PRC, having closely monitored TW program would have probably nuked TW first if US didn't compel TW to end the program. US Inspection / IAEA went in the dismantle the program, no doubt verified by PRC intelligence, it's unlikely TW can rebuild to nuclear turnkey faster than PRC can mount an invasion. And realistically TW can't fend off a PRC invasion without US involvement, and if US involves to assist TW nuclearizing then TW going to get nuked, and US + PRC will stare down MAD.
- hipadev23 2y ago
  I’d like to point out most geopolitical experts and scholars concluded similarly about Russia and Ukraine until 2014.
- mr_toad 2y ago
  Given the complex economic ties between them it makes no sense. Not only are they big trading partners, there are large Taiwanese businesses in China (like Foxconn). War would hurt both economies. Military it would hurt both sides. Taiwan is riddled with fortified gun emplacements, some of which can bombard mainland Chinese cities. Attacking it would be like a cross between Normandy and the Somme. The only reason is political. But politics often overrides common sense.
nkmskdmfodf 2y ago
[flagged]
- kevinventullo 2y ago
  If it’s all a psy-op, then why does one need to stockpile chips?
  - nkmskdmfodf 2y ago
    Because we won't be able to get more chips for a while after Taiwan goes under? AI is not the only use for chips.
Leary 2y ago
You really think China will attack in the next few years when it's not even building the gas pipeline from Russia? [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pipeline-deal-stalls-over-beijings-price-demands-ft-2024-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...
maxglute 2y ago
I mean if Trump willing to sign over TW to PRC, PRC likely more than willing to ship over all the EUV machines and paperclip TSMC engineers to US and take the semi L for a few years in exchange for interference free reunification. US even gets to keep the billions of of undelivered weapons TW prepaid for. Hell Xi'll personally throw in PRC's 800B of US debt and Pandas for every US zoo. Art of the deal.

There's such a low probability of that happening, even if the US turns their back on Taiwan. It would likely result in Taiwan and Japan, at the least, rapidly building nuclear weapons. Then they'd trade the occasional word and politician would make grand gestures, but continue business as usual.

zja 2y ago
How would Taiwan start a nuclear program if they get invaded?
- jandrewrogers 2y ago
  Taiwan does not need to start a nuclear program. Taiwan has previously completed everything except final assembly of a nuke, so they have the capability in principle. There are a number of countries that have never built nukes but that are believed to possess all of necessary components to rapidly assemble nukes should they feel it necessary, it is a gray area in nuclear non-proliferation. For international accounting purposes, a disassembled warhead sitting on a shelf somewhere doesn't count as a nuke, they only count systems. Invasions are unavoidably telegraphed months ahead of time, which is more than enough time to assemble a nuke if you have already have the components.
  - threatofrain 2y ago
    I have a feeling that China is very prepared to invade with extreme haste and their intelligence agencies would not let something like this go unnoticed.
    - boristsr 2y ago
      The sheer logistics of a large scale mobilization means that its obvious weeks and even months in advance. Moving troops, equipment and ammunition to staging areas etc. Even just preparing transports shows up. Think back to the weeks before the Ukrainian invasion. It's kinda hard to hide it.
      - threatofrain 2y ago
        As far as I know, China has not been hiding this preparation. They are actively preparing to invade Taiwan, at least for the sake of appearances so that they can be seen doing so.
  - maxglute 2y ago
    TW is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey potential isn't as fast as PLA rockets/bunker busters. Unmentioned aspect of US axing TW nuclear program in late 80s, was CSIST / INER (Taiwan nuclear program) was already monitored by PRC intelligence and post Nixon normalization US intel cooperated with PRC intel to shut the program down. Unwritten between the line is PRC, having closely monitored TW program would have probably nuked TW first if US didn't compel TW to end the program. US Inspection / IAEA went in the dismantle the program, no doubt verified by PRC intelligence, it's unlikely TW can rebuild to nuclear turnkey faster than PRC can mount an invasion. And realistically TW can't fend off a PRC invasion without US involvement, and if US involves to assist TW nuclearizing then TW going to get nuked, and US + PRC will stare down MAD.
hipadev23 2y ago
I’d like to point out most geopolitical experts and scholars concluded similarly about Russia and Ukraine until 2014.
mr_toad 2y ago
Given the complex economic ties between them it makes no sense. Not only are they big trading partners, there are large Taiwanese businesses in China (like Foxconn). War would hurt both economies. Military it would hurt both sides. Taiwan is riddled with fortified gun emplacements, some of which can bombard mainland Chinese cities. Attacking it would be like a cross between Normandy and the Somme. The only reason is political. But politics often overrides common sense.

nkmskdmfodf 2y ago

[flagged]

kevinventullo 2y ago
If it’s all a psy-op, then why does one need to stockpile chips?
- nkmskdmfodf 2y ago
  Because we won't be able to get more chips for a while after Taiwan goes under? AI is not the only use for chips.

Leary 2y ago

You really think China will attack in the next few years when it's not even building the gas pipeline from Russia? [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pipeline-deal-stalls-over-beijings-price-demands-ft-2024-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...

maxglute 2y ago

I mean if Trump willing to sign over TW to PRC, PRC likely more than willing to ship over all the EUV machines and paperclip TSMC engineers to US and take the semi L for a few years in exchange for interference free reunification. US even gets to keep the billions of of undelivered weapons TW prepaid for. Hell Xi'll personally throw in PRC's 800B of US debt and Pandas for every US zoo. Art of the deal.