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Ford spends $3B to expand large truck production in plant previously set for EVs

34 points by rntn 2y ago

seydor 2y ago
Post-EV trucks
- briandw 2y ago
  Ford and GM are not going to make the transition
  - pm90 2y ago
    Good. Their supply chain infrastructure is just not designed to build batteries. Tesla/Rivian will obliterate them.
  - recursive 2y ago
    I think Ford stands a better chance than Toyota. Ford is putting up an effort. Toyota is putting its head in the sand.
rqtwteye 2y ago
The only thing these guys know is to make vehicles bigger and bigger. One day they wake up and will ask for public subsidies because Chinese manufacturers have eaten their lunch.
- MisterBastahrd 2y ago
  Well, the other thing they know how to do is make a product that people actually want to buy. Not sure how Chinese manufacturers are going to be able to do anything to change that. There is a specific demographic who will buy ONLY these trucks for their personal use. They are rugged, reliable, and last forever with proper service.
  - throwway120385 2y ago
    If the chinese enter the market with something sized more like a kei truck then I will buy one even if the electrical is total crap because it's the perfect form factor. As it is now I'm probably going to buy a van instead of a truck because trucks are totally impractical for actually hauling anything.
  - AstroJetson 2y ago
    They are rugged, they make that trip to the grocery with ease, no pot hole will stop them. They last forever, or until the owner that gets a new truck every 4 years gets rid of it. Ford is about repeating sales, they don’t sell you a truck and think “Nice guy, hope they come back in 20 years to get a new one. It’s all about current profit. Remember how the US crushed millions of used cars to help the auto industry and destroyed poor peoples chances of an affordable car? I’ll bet it happens again very soon.
    - jtbayly 2y ago
      That should have been a huge scandal. I hope it doesn’t happen again, ever. Why do you think it will happen again, soon?
      - AstroJetson 2y ago
        Because Ford isn't building EV cars, they are focused on the Monster Pickup line. And that's going to end and they don't have a plan B. So they will / are jamming dollars into the C* level people, the end will come, they will go "We are too big to fail and Congress will help them out." They got a $6.9 billion loan in 2019 that still isn't paid and a more recent $9.2 billion to fund EV in 2023.
  - wongarsu 2y ago
    > Well, the other thing they know how to do is make a product that people actually want to buy. That's the other way around, they are great at making people want to buy the products they make. They make trucks because the chicken tax makes foreign trucks and vans unattractive in the US. And the trucks grow bigger every year because it's easier to satisfy environmental regulations with bigger vehicles (since the goals depend on vehicle size). They then make really good propaganda^w marketing to make people want to buy those vehicles. If people only wanted rugged, reliable, long-lasting vehicles they would buy Toyota.
- bluejekyll 2y ago
  This is already happening. See the recent tariffs on low cost Chinese EVs. If Americans really didn’t want EVs then there should be no need to protect the market from the cheaper Chinese brands, because nobody would be buying them.
  - maxdo 2y ago
    With next wave of cheap ev's america will be forced to love it. They will just pay more compared to the rest of the world. Stuborn-tax.
    - nozzlegear 2y ago
      Why would America be forced to love it and forced to pay more for it? The Ford F-150 is most popular vehicle in the United States, followed by the Chevy Silverado and Dodge Ram. It doesn't seem like Americans are falling over themselves to buy imported Chinese EVs.
      - kjkjadksj 2y ago
        California at least is trying to make all new cars sold be EV by 2035
        nozzlegear 2y ago
        Good point, I hadn't considered state laws. It will be interesting to see if other states go the other direction. Iowa, where I live, has such heavy investment in ethanol that I wouldn't be surprised to see the legislature try to enact some kind of misguided ban on EV sales.
        enragedcacti 2y ago
        *EV or PHEV by 2035
      - bluejekyll 2y ago
        There is no glut of Chinese EVs because of the tariffs, but it looks like they might work around that, “It’s a scenario that terrifies America’s auto industry. Chinese carmakers set up shop in Mexico to exploit North American trade rules. Once in place, they send ultra-low-priced electric vehicles streaming into the United States.” https://apnews.com/article/china-vehicles-mexico-evs-automakers-tariffs-f526c5e52b95b624bb4b15d2038e289a https://apnews.com/article/china-vehicles-mexico-evs-automak...
- Amezarak 2y ago
  They make bigger vehicles because people want bigger vehicles. I own a tiny (by US standards) car. It was discontinued by the manufacturer for lack of sales, which were indeed miserable for many years despite being a great car and very cheap. The story is the same across most of the other US manufacturers. I still drive it every day to work but for family trips I drive a much larger three-row SUV and it is better in basically every way except gas mileage, which thanks to being a hybrid is about the same. So I get where people are coming from. My conclusion has been people tend to buy as much car as they can possibly afford and often more.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - jwells89 2y ago
    Customer demand is just one piece of the puzzle, though. People might not be buying as many small cars as they used to, but automakers also would prefer to sell you something big and fancy enough that chunky margin/markup is easier to justify — both by the manufacturer and by dealers. There's just not but so far the price on something like a Fit or a Yaris can be jacked up before prospective buyers just laugh at you and buy something else. So even discounting demand, automakers and dealers are incentivized to make big, expensive vehicles, which reduces the number of small models available, which in turn further reduces demand as would-be small car buyers can no longer find options that make the right tradeoffs for their situation. In other words, in some ways it's a self-reinforcing cycle that won't end absent external corrections.
  - rglullis 2y ago
    > people want bigger vehicles. This is absolutely not true. The demand is manufactured. Car companies in the US are building bigger SUVs and trucks because they are classified different and have less strict emissions regulations.
    - EricE 2y ago
      Yup. Government regulations once again screwing those of us who prefer smaller vehicles. Looking at you, Chicken Tax!
- patwolf 2y ago
  To be fair, they're using it to build Super Duty trucks, which are big trucks typically used for actual work with no suitable EV alternative. So it seems more a case of using their manufacturing capacities efficiently rather than them saying "screw EVs, we'll build bigger ICE vehicles instead".
  - kjkjadksj 2y ago
    What are they doing with the old super duty plants? Still making super duties there too?
  - afiori 2y ago
    > To be fair, they're using it to build Super Duty trucks, which are big trucks typically used for actual work Citation needed
    - kube-system 2y ago
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/ford-is-adding-capacity-super-duty-trucks-are-seeing-surging-demand/ar-BB1qdc2n https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/ford-is-adding-capacity... > Thursday, the auto maker announced a third North American assembly plant to meet commercial demand for F-series Super Duty trucks. > It’s another sign that Ford’s commercial business is healthy. Pro is Ford’s star business segment, earning $3 billion in operating profit in the first quarter, while the traditional car business saw a $900 million profit, and the Model e electric-vehicle business lost $1.3 billion. It is Ford's commercial segment that is really driving their success in selling these vehicles.
      - schmookeeg 2y ago
        I think parent wanted a citation that Super Duty trucks are typically used for work, and not for Brodozer hooning and yelling "yew" out of the window in a sleeveless shirt and with a plug of skoal. :)
        kube-system 2y ago
- kredd 2y ago
  Consumers are willing to go into huge debts to buy the car they want. Anecdotal, but my closest friend works for a car dealership and the stories he tells every week are heartbreaking. From Ford/GM perspective, I’m assuming they’ve crunched the numbers, and realized trying to make a cheaper vehicle will not result in proper ROI. I’m not sure if they can ever compete with economies of scale as well, compared to Chinese hawks, as they just have so many more consumers even just internally. It’s going to be fun to watch the car-wars as we have allied countries like Australia that are buying up BYDs, so people can’t just call them “Chinese crap” forever. My bet is within 5 years US/Europe is going to rely on protectionism even more, as China puts more pressure on exports. It’s a huge industry with an enormous amount of jobs attached to it after all.
  - Rinzler89 2y ago
    >My bet is within 5 years US/Europe is going to rely on protectionism even more That's a double edged sword as China will retaliate with tariffs on US and EU cars in China, and the Chinese market has been a huge moneymaker for the German companies, who now find themselves between a rock and a hard place. They can't outcompete Chinese EV makers on price in the EU market, but they also can't loose the Chinese market if retaliatory tarries would hit them. I'm focusing on Germany because the Germany economy is far more dependent on cars than the US economy where it's more of a vestigial tail compared to finance, services and tech. Also, tariffs are a poisoned chalice. Yes, they'll protect your industry locally on the short term, but long term, your industry will loose out on competitiveness on the global market where it lacks protectionism and will be decimated in the long run. My bet is that instead of a mutual assured destruction tarif wars, EU and Chinese companies will enter into partnerships where they share technology and factories, meaning of course the EU made Chinese EVs will be significantly more expensive than those sold abroad.
    - kredd 2y ago
      Great points, that could happen as well! I'm curious what would Chinese companies get from partnerships with German companies at this point though, as my knowledge is pretty limited in that sphere.
- multimoon 2y ago
  As someone very close to the car market this is just an incorrect assessment. You might want a small BEV, most Americans do not. Pickup trucks are still by far the best selling category of vehicle in America. Corporations are going to focus on what people want to buy, and right now that isn’t EVs. Several manufacturers tried it, they had aggressive timelines to convert their entire fleets - and they’ve almost all reversed course because the gas/hybrid offerings were far outselling their BEV options.
  - ericjmorey 2y ago
    Dollar weighted people want trucks, e.i. people who want to spend more money on their personal vehicles want trucks. People who want to spend efficiently don't want trucks, they want what Honda and Toyota have been selling which is slowly converting to hybrid powered vehicles and to a lesser extent electric powered sedans and SUVs. Ford has no interest in the lower margin segments. So they are focused on trucks first and SUVs second.
    - multimoon 2y ago
      This is my point - Americans buy the “most car” their dollar gets them. If all you can/want to afford is a Corolla or a Civic, then that’s what you buy - but given two similarly priced cars where you have something smaller than a Corolla, unless it’s significantly cheaper people are going to choose the bigger Corolla.
- Gibbon1 2y ago
  If you look at light vehicle sales in the US they've been running at 17 million or so a year for 25 years. So yes the only way automakers can increase revenue in the US is by making cars and trucks more expensive. Because they can't increase unit volume. The issue the Chinese have is everyone not just the US is asking the question what in it for us having all the factories in China.
lifty 2y ago
There will be tariffs both in US and EU for protecting against Chinese EVs, so there's little pressure for them to hurry on the EV roadmap.
- Rinzler89 2y ago
  >hurry on the EV roadmap It's the charging infrastructure that's lacking and the affordable used market, not their EV roadmaps. Currently EVs are best for those with charger at home which gives them cheap running costs (especailly with solar panels at home) and peace of mind of car always being fully charged at your disposal. But those without chargers at home are fucked with an overpriced and half the time broken public infrastructure that makes life much more miserable than with ICE cars. EV sales have slowed down not because the EV roadmap, but because the market of users with home chargers has begun to saturate, so now you need to improve public charging to break into the demographic without chargers at home, but since nobody wants to do that, neither car manufacturers, nor the governments, turning EV infrastructure investment into this hot potato, meaning EV adoption is at a stalemate. Blaming slow EV sales on the EV roadmap without thinking of public infrastructure would be like blaming lackluster smartphone roadmaps when networks are still stuck on 2G.
  - floxy 2y ago
    >EV sales have slowed down not because the EV roadmap, but because the market of users with home chargers has begun to saturate In this age-of-big-data, is there a way to quantify this? https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2024-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2024-ev-sales/
    - Rinzler89 2y ago
      >In this age-of-big-data, is there a way to quantify this? Not sure exactly (I don't live in the US), but not every consumer opinion everywhere or behavior can be 100% easily quantified with a quick Google search or a simple big data query, the way HN loves. Sometimes it's more complicated that the data available and it's just easier to ask consumers since people vote with their wallets and consumers aren't stupid to leave money on the table if EVs ownership were a monetary net benefit for them. I just looked at the EV infrastructure around me, how people use their ICE cars, and the pros and cons of switching to EVs now, with home charging and without home charging. Call it an anecdote if you will, but I'm as middle class as it gets(no house ownership, ICE car owner), so if EV ownership sucks for me, it probably also sucks for everyone else like me, and since so there's a lot of me out there in this country where I live, then my anecdote is pretty representative without or without big data.
strict9 2y ago
Consumers have been loudly saying they want hybrids[1]. Full electric vehicles are not practical for most people just yet. But instead manufacturers have made larger and larger vehicles and went too far with EV options instead of just providing hybrid options. https://info.oregon.aaa.com/aaa-interest-in-evs-wanes-more-americans-want-hybrids/ https://info.oregon.aaa.com/aaa-interest-in-evs-wanes-more-a...
- jader201 2y ago
  A big selling point for EVs, for me, was much lower maintenance. No brake disc/pad replacements, no oil changes -- or any fluids! -- and no trips to the gas station. Mostly just tire rotations/replacements. Hybrids still require roughly the same maintenance as ICE vehicles, and also have to deal with battery life on top.
  - mh- 2y ago
    I've not owned an EV, why would you not have to replace the brakes? I understand that regenerative braking reduces their wear, but that's also offset to some degree by the vehicle being heavier.
    - xeromal 2y ago
      You don't never change them but it is pretty minimal. I put around 100k miles on my tesla and never had to change my brakes. If you treat an EV like a stick shift car and just time your stopping via coasting, you rarely need the brakes to the point where you have to slam on your brakes from time to time to burn off road junk
      - mh- 2y ago
        Gotcha. I live in a hilly area - regular +/- 2000 ft elevation changes on a given trip. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Brake maintenance sucks, even more than needing new tires.
        2y ago
jader201 2y ago
I'm much less optimistic about the future of EVs as I was a couple years ago (when we bought our Kia EV6). It seems like I see more news recently, like this, of companies reversing their position and pivoting back towards ICE vehicles, and it's depressing. I blame infrastructure, and our inability to roll out broad infrastructure across the US. There are too many people with range anxiety, and lack of infrastructure isn't helping, and improvements haven't been enough to keep up with our goals to pivot toward EVs. Alternatively, battery technology could advance to improve range without (as much of) a need for broad infrastructure rollouts, but that's also not happening fast enough. I still think we'll get there, eventually. But I don't think we'll get there as fast as many of us want to -- or were optimistic for in 2022 -- unfortunately.
- GordonS 2y ago
  A little OT, but how do you find the EV6?
  - jader201 2y ago
    I've loved it, for the most part, especially compared to ICE vehicles. We've had some minor issues with the heat/AC/heat pump, and a number of recalls that are sometimes hard to schedule fixes for. Tires seem to not last as long, but that's apparently common with (heavy) EVs. Other minor electronic annoyances that fixed themselves either with recalls or software patches. The other concern is that it seems like it's hard to get repairs done, either due to parts shortage, or lack of experience. Fortunately we've not had any need for repairs yet, but I've heard stories about that being a problem for some (and may not be unique to the EV6). Our other vehicle is still an ICE vehicle, but I'm hoping when it's time to replace it, we can get another EV. But lack of infrastructure may mean we get another ICE vehicle for longer trips. EDIT: interesting post to get downvoted on.
- maxdo 2y ago
  I'm Tesla owner for 4 years. In the place I live I see EV's on every block, every big parking lot, and right now EV are getting much cheaper. And it will be even Cheaper. Tesla Model 3 is cheaper compared to gasoline Toyota of comparable trim Today. I'm not sure what really can stop next wave of EV's that will be powered by cheap prices.
maxdo 2y ago
Ford is getting less and less relevant in 21st century. The truck they are making is kind of hardest to tackle due to battery density. So short term it make sense. Long term if they don't have a good EV portfolio they are dead. With battery prices at $50-60kWh in China, EV will finally goes mainstream for not early adopters. But for people who wants to save money. EV will start attacking every single car segment because it will become cheaper, more reliable, faster, silent.
- Amezarak 2y ago
  Cheaper is good. I would probably have bought an EV if they were cheaper than the alternatives, but so far they aren't. "More reliable" would be nice, but hasn't been my experience or observation. The powertrains on the cars I've driven have proven very reliable - zero problems in 200K+/miles per car. All the problems I've had were related to electronics and trim issues. I'm not sure that "faster" or "silent" are really dimensions people are buying on unless they race.
  - maxdo 2y ago
    Hm, look at Toyota Camry of a decent trim at almost $45k+, and compare it to $35k tesla that can go 360 miles range. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-long-range-rear-wheel-drive-rwd/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-long-range-rear-whee... EV's are cheaper now. This year it might be here and there a little bit, next year and beyond EV will beat gas cars on price without any doubt.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- vel0city 2y ago
  > So short term it make sense It makes a lot of sense short-term. This factory has been sitting idle for years now (IIRC) and had a lot of union furloughed employees waiting to go back to work. They had to get this factory building something soon.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
oflannabhra 2y ago
EV Trucks are still a long way off. The simple fact is that the power to weight ratio of batteries simply does not scale for anything that needs to do towing [0]. Super Duty trucks are specifically designed for towing capability. Specifically, they are classified as class 2 or 3 by the federal government. They have higher tow capacity, higher rated transmissions with better towing gear ratios, as well as different suspensions and chassis, all of which are designed separately from the F-series. These changes yield a higher gross vehicle weight, as well. None of this means that Ford couldn't be pushing into better performance and emissions through hybrid technologies. Ford is slowly releasing full-size truck hybrid technology, but I'm unaware of this being brought to Super Duty trucks. The big advantage of hybrid technology is that weight does not directly affect the efficiency of power recovery, and would scale well even to vehicles that need to be towing in excess of 10k lbs. [0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4W-P5aCWJs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4W-P5aCWJs

34 points by rntn 2y ago

seydor 2y ago

Post-EV trucks

briandw 2y ago
Ford and GM are not going to make the transition
- pm90 2y ago
  Good. Their supply chain infrastructure is just not designed to build batteries. Tesla/Rivian will obliterate them.
- recursive 2y ago
  I think Ford stands a better chance than Toyota. Ford is putting up an effort. Toyota is putting its head in the sand.

rqtwteye 2y ago

The only thing these guys know is to make vehicles bigger and bigger. One day they wake up and will ask for public subsidies because Chinese manufacturers have eaten their lunch.

MisterBastahrd 2y ago
Well, the other thing they know how to do is make a product that people actually want to buy. Not sure how Chinese manufacturers are going to be able to do anything to change that. There is a specific demographic who will buy ONLY these trucks for their personal use. They are rugged, reliable, and last forever with proper service.
- throwway120385 2y ago
  If the chinese enter the market with something sized more like a kei truck then I will buy one even if the electrical is total crap because it's the perfect form factor. As it is now I'm probably going to buy a van instead of a truck because trucks are totally impractical for actually hauling anything.
- AstroJetson 2y ago
  They are rugged, they make that trip to the grocery with ease, no pot hole will stop them. They last forever, or until the owner that gets a new truck every 4 years gets rid of it. Ford is about repeating sales, they don’t sell you a truck and think “Nice guy, hope they come back in 20 years to get a new one. It’s all about current profit. Remember how the US crushed millions of used cars to help the auto industry and destroyed poor peoples chances of an affordable car? I’ll bet it happens again very soon.
  - jtbayly 2y ago
    That should have been a huge scandal. I hope it doesn’t happen again, ever. Why do you think it will happen again, soon?
    - AstroJetson 2y ago
      Because Ford isn't building EV cars, they are focused on the Monster Pickup line. And that's going to end and they don't have a plan B. So they will / are jamming dollars into the C* level people, the end will come, they will go "We are too big to fail and Congress will help them out." They got a $6.9 billion loan in 2019 that still isn't paid and a more recent $9.2 billion to fund EV in 2023.
- wongarsu 2y ago
  > Well, the other thing they know how to do is make a product that people actually want to buy. That's the other way around, they are great at making people want to buy the products they make. They make trucks because the chicken tax makes foreign trucks and vans unattractive in the US. And the trucks grow bigger every year because it's easier to satisfy environmental regulations with bigger vehicles (since the goals depend on vehicle size). They then make really good propaganda^w marketing to make people want to buy those vehicles. If people only wanted rugged, reliable, long-lasting vehicles they would buy Toyota.
bluejekyll 2y ago
This is already happening. See the recent tariffs on low cost Chinese EVs. If Americans really didn’t want EVs then there should be no need to protect the market from the cheaper Chinese brands, because nobody would be buying them.
- maxdo 2y ago
  With next wave of cheap ev's america will be forced to love it. They will just pay more compared to the rest of the world. Stuborn-tax.
  - nozzlegear 2y ago
    Why would America be forced to love it and forced to pay more for it? The Ford F-150 is most popular vehicle in the United States, followed by the Chevy Silverado and Dodge Ram. It doesn't seem like Americans are falling over themselves to buy imported Chinese EVs.
    - kjkjadksj 2y ago
      California at least is trying to make all new cars sold be EV by 2035
      - nozzlegear 2y ago
        Good point, I hadn't considered state laws. It will be interesting to see if other states go the other direction. Iowa, where I live, has such heavy investment in ethanol that I wouldn't be surprised to see the legislature try to enact some kind of misguided ban on EV sales.
      - enragedcacti 2y ago
        *EV or PHEV by 2035
    - bluejekyll 2y ago
      There is no glut of Chinese EVs because of the tariffs, but it looks like they might work around that, “It’s a scenario that terrifies America’s auto industry. Chinese carmakers set up shop in Mexico to exploit North American trade rules. Once in place, they send ultra-low-priced electric vehicles streaming into the United States.” https://apnews.com/article/china-vehicles-mexico-evs-automakers-tariffs-f526c5e52b95b624bb4b15d2038e289a https://apnews.com/article/china-vehicles-mexico-evs-automak...
Amezarak 2y ago
They make bigger vehicles because people want bigger vehicles. I own a tiny (by US standards) car. It was discontinued by the manufacturer for lack of sales, which were indeed miserable for many years despite being a great car and very cheap. The story is the same across most of the other US manufacturers. I still drive it every day to work but for family trips I drive a much larger three-row SUV and it is better in basically every way except gas mileage, which thanks to being a hybrid is about the same. So I get where people are coming from. My conclusion has been people tend to buy as much car as they can possibly afford and often more.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- jwells89 2y ago
  Customer demand is just one piece of the puzzle, though. People might not be buying as many small cars as they used to, but automakers also would prefer to sell you something big and fancy enough that chunky margin/markup is easier to justify — both by the manufacturer and by dealers. There's just not but so far the price on something like a Fit or a Yaris can be jacked up before prospective buyers just laugh at you and buy something else. So even discounting demand, automakers and dealers are incentivized to make big, expensive vehicles, which reduces the number of small models available, which in turn further reduces demand as would-be small car buyers can no longer find options that make the right tradeoffs for their situation. In other words, in some ways it's a self-reinforcing cycle that won't end absent external corrections.
- rglullis 2y ago
  > people want bigger vehicles. This is absolutely not true. The demand is manufactured. Car companies in the US are building bigger SUVs and trucks because they are classified different and have less strict emissions regulations.
  - EricE 2y ago
    Yup. Government regulations once again screwing those of us who prefer smaller vehicles. Looking at you, Chicken Tax!
patwolf 2y ago
To be fair, they're using it to build Super Duty trucks, which are big trucks typically used for actual work with no suitable EV alternative. So it seems more a case of using their manufacturing capacities efficiently rather than them saying "screw EVs, we'll build bigger ICE vehicles instead".
- kjkjadksj 2y ago
  What are they doing with the old super duty plants? Still making super duties there too?
- afiori 2y ago
  > To be fair, they're using it to build Super Duty trucks, which are big trucks typically used for actual work Citation needed
  - kube-system 2y ago
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/ford-is-adding-capacity-super-duty-trucks-are-seeing-surging-demand/ar-BB1qdc2n https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/ford-is-adding-capacity... > Thursday, the auto maker announced a third North American assembly plant to meet commercial demand for F-series Super Duty trucks. > It’s another sign that Ford’s commercial business is healthy. Pro is Ford’s star business segment, earning $3 billion in operating profit in the first quarter, while the traditional car business saw a $900 million profit, and the Model e electric-vehicle business lost $1.3 billion. It is Ford's commercial segment that is really driving their success in selling these vehicles.
    - schmookeeg 2y ago
      I think parent wanted a citation that Super Duty trucks are typically used for work, and not for Brodozer hooning and yelling "yew" out of the window in a sleeveless shirt and with a plug of skoal. :)
      - kube-system 2y ago
kredd 2y ago
Consumers are willing to go into huge debts to buy the car they want. Anecdotal, but my closest friend works for a car dealership and the stories he tells every week are heartbreaking. From Ford/GM perspective, I’m assuming they’ve crunched the numbers, and realized trying to make a cheaper vehicle will not result in proper ROI. I’m not sure if they can ever compete with economies of scale as well, compared to Chinese hawks, as they just have so many more consumers even just internally. It’s going to be fun to watch the car-wars as we have allied countries like Australia that are buying up BYDs, so people can’t just call them “Chinese crap” forever. My bet is within 5 years US/Europe is going to rely on protectionism even more, as China puts more pressure on exports. It’s a huge industry with an enormous amount of jobs attached to it after all.
- Rinzler89 2y ago
  >My bet is within 5 years US/Europe is going to rely on protectionism even more That's a double edged sword as China will retaliate with tariffs on US and EU cars in China, and the Chinese market has been a huge moneymaker for the German companies, who now find themselves between a rock and a hard place. They can't outcompete Chinese EV makers on price in the EU market, but they also can't loose the Chinese market if retaliatory tarries would hit them. I'm focusing on Germany because the Germany economy is far more dependent on cars than the US economy where it's more of a vestigial tail compared to finance, services and tech. Also, tariffs are a poisoned chalice. Yes, they'll protect your industry locally on the short term, but long term, your industry will loose out on competitiveness on the global market where it lacks protectionism and will be decimated in the long run. My bet is that instead of a mutual assured destruction tarif wars, EU and Chinese companies will enter into partnerships where they share technology and factories, meaning of course the EU made Chinese EVs will be significantly more expensive than those sold abroad.
  - kredd 2y ago
    Great points, that could happen as well! I'm curious what would Chinese companies get from partnerships with German companies at this point though, as my knowledge is pretty limited in that sphere.
multimoon 2y ago
As someone very close to the car market this is just an incorrect assessment. You might want a small BEV, most Americans do not. Pickup trucks are still by far the best selling category of vehicle in America. Corporations are going to focus on what people want to buy, and right now that isn’t EVs. Several manufacturers tried it, they had aggressive timelines to convert their entire fleets - and they’ve almost all reversed course because the gas/hybrid offerings were far outselling their BEV options.
- ericjmorey 2y ago
  Dollar weighted people want trucks, e.i. people who want to spend more money on their personal vehicles want trucks. People who want to spend efficiently don't want trucks, they want what Honda and Toyota have been selling which is slowly converting to hybrid powered vehicles and to a lesser extent electric powered sedans and SUVs. Ford has no interest in the lower margin segments. So they are focused on trucks first and SUVs second.
  - multimoon 2y ago
    This is my point - Americans buy the “most car” their dollar gets them. If all you can/want to afford is a Corolla or a Civic, then that’s what you buy - but given two similarly priced cars where you have something smaller than a Corolla, unless it’s significantly cheaper people are going to choose the bigger Corolla.
Gibbon1 2y ago
If you look at light vehicle sales in the US they've been running at 17 million or so a year for 25 years. So yes the only way automakers can increase revenue in the US is by making cars and trucks more expensive. Because they can't increase unit volume. The issue the Chinese have is everyone not just the US is asking the question what in it for us having all the factories in China.

lifty 2y ago

There will be tariffs both in US and EU for protecting against Chinese EVs, so there's little pressure for them to hurry on the EV roadmap.

Rinzler89 2y ago
>hurry on the EV roadmap It's the charging infrastructure that's lacking and the affordable used market, not their EV roadmaps. Currently EVs are best for those with charger at home which gives them cheap running costs (especailly with solar panels at home) and peace of mind of car always being fully charged at your disposal. But those without chargers at home are fucked with an overpriced and half the time broken public infrastructure that makes life much more miserable than with ICE cars. EV sales have slowed down not because the EV roadmap, but because the market of users with home chargers has begun to saturate, so now you need to improve public charging to break into the demographic without chargers at home, but since nobody wants to do that, neither car manufacturers, nor the governments, turning EV infrastructure investment into this hot potato, meaning EV adoption is at a stalemate. Blaming slow EV sales on the EV roadmap without thinking of public infrastructure would be like blaming lackluster smartphone roadmaps when networks are still stuck on 2G.
- floxy 2y ago
  >EV sales have slowed down not because the EV roadmap, but because the market of users with home chargers has begun to saturate In this age-of-big-data, is there a way to quantify this? https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2024-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q2-2024-ev-sales/
  - Rinzler89 2y ago
    >In this age-of-big-data, is there a way to quantify this? Not sure exactly (I don't live in the US), but not every consumer opinion everywhere or behavior can be 100% easily quantified with a quick Google search or a simple big data query, the way HN loves. Sometimes it's more complicated that the data available and it's just easier to ask consumers since people vote with their wallets and consumers aren't stupid to leave money on the table if EVs ownership were a monetary net benefit for them. I just looked at the EV infrastructure around me, how people use their ICE cars, and the pros and cons of switching to EVs now, with home charging and without home charging. Call it an anecdote if you will, but I'm as middle class as it gets(no house ownership, ICE car owner), so if EV ownership sucks for me, it probably also sucks for everyone else like me, and since so there's a lot of me out there in this country where I live, then my anecdote is pretty representative without or without big data.

strict9 2y ago

Consumers have been loudly saying they want hybrids[1]. Full electric vehicles are not practical for most people just yet. But instead manufacturers have made larger and larger vehicles and went too far with EV options instead of just providing hybrid options. https://info.oregon.aaa.com/aaa-interest-in-evs-wanes-more-americans-want-hybrids/ https://info.oregon.aaa.com/aaa-interest-in-evs-wanes-more-a...

jader201 2y ago
A big selling point for EVs, for me, was much lower maintenance. No brake disc/pad replacements, no oil changes -- or any fluids! -- and no trips to the gas station. Mostly just tire rotations/replacements. Hybrids still require roughly the same maintenance as ICE vehicles, and also have to deal with battery life on top.
- mh- 2y ago
  I've not owned an EV, why would you not have to replace the brakes? I understand that regenerative braking reduces their wear, but that's also offset to some degree by the vehicle being heavier.
  - xeromal 2y ago
    You don't never change them but it is pretty minimal. I put around 100k miles on my tesla and never had to change my brakes. If you treat an EV like a stick shift car and just time your stopping via coasting, you rarely need the brakes to the point where you have to slam on your brakes from time to time to burn off road junk
    - mh- 2y ago
      Gotcha. I live in a hilly area - regular +/- 2000 ft elevation changes on a given trip. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Brake maintenance sucks, even more than needing new tires.
      - 2y ago

jader201 2y ago

I'm much less optimistic about the future of EVs as I was a couple years ago (when we bought our Kia EV6). It seems like I see more news recently, like this, of companies reversing their position and pivoting back towards ICE vehicles, and it's depressing. I blame infrastructure, and our inability to roll out broad infrastructure across the US. There are too many people with range anxiety, and lack of infrastructure isn't helping, and improvements haven't been enough to keep up with our goals to pivot toward EVs. Alternatively, battery technology could advance to improve range without (as much of) a need for broad infrastructure rollouts, but that's also not happening fast enough. I still think we'll get there, eventually. But I don't think we'll get there as fast as many of us want to -- or were optimistic for in 2022 -- unfortunately.

GordonS 2y ago
A little OT, but how do you find the EV6?
- jader201 2y ago
  I've loved it, for the most part, especially compared to ICE vehicles. We've had some minor issues with the heat/AC/heat pump, and a number of recalls that are sometimes hard to schedule fixes for. Tires seem to not last as long, but that's apparently common with (heavy) EVs. Other minor electronic annoyances that fixed themselves either with recalls or software patches. The other concern is that it seems like it's hard to get repairs done, either due to parts shortage, or lack of experience. Fortunately we've not had any need for repairs yet, but I've heard stories about that being a problem for some (and may not be unique to the EV6). Our other vehicle is still an ICE vehicle, but I'm hoping when it's time to replace it, we can get another EV. But lack of infrastructure may mean we get another ICE vehicle for longer trips. EDIT: interesting post to get downvoted on.
maxdo 2y ago
I'm Tesla owner for 4 years. In the place I live I see EV's on every block, every big parking lot, and right now EV are getting much cheaper. And it will be even Cheaper. Tesla Model 3 is cheaper compared to gasoline Toyota of comparable trim Today. I'm not sure what really can stop next wave of EV's that will be powered by cheap prices.

maxdo 2y ago

Ford is getting less and less relevant in 21st century. The truck they are making is kind of hardest to tackle due to battery density. So short term it make sense. Long term if they don't have a good EV portfolio they are dead. With battery prices at $50-60kWh in China, EV will finally goes mainstream for not early adopters. But for people who wants to save money. EV will start attacking every single car segment because it will become cheaper, more reliable, faster, silent.

Amezarak 2y ago
Cheaper is good. I would probably have bought an EV if they were cheaper than the alternatives, but so far they aren't. "More reliable" would be nice, but hasn't been my experience or observation. The powertrains on the cars I've driven have proven very reliable - zero problems in 200K+/miles per car. All the problems I've had were related to electronics and trim issues. I'm not sure that "faster" or "silent" are really dimensions people are buying on unless they race.
- maxdo 2y ago
  Hm, look at Toyota Camry of a decent trim at almost $45k+, and compare it to $35k tesla that can go 360 miles range. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-long-range-rear-wheel-drive-rwd/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-long-range-rear-whee... EV's are cheaper now. This year it might be here and there a little bit, next year and beyond EV will beat gas cars on price without any doubt.
  - deleted 2y ago
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vel0city 2y ago
> So short term it make sense It makes a lot of sense short-term. This factory has been sitting idle for years now (IIRC) and had a lot of union furloughed employees waiting to go back to work. They had to get this factory building something soon.

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oflannabhra 2y ago

EV Trucks are still a long way off. The simple fact is that the power to weight ratio of batteries simply does not scale for anything that needs to do towing [0]. Super Duty trucks are specifically designed for towing capability. Specifically, they are classified as class 2 or 3 by the federal government. They have higher tow capacity, higher rated transmissions with better towing gear ratios, as well as different suspensions and chassis, all of which are designed separately from the F-series. These changes yield a higher gross vehicle weight, as well. None of this means that Ford couldn't be pushing into better performance and emissions through hybrid technologies. Ford is slowly releasing full-size truck hybrid technology, but I'm unaware of this being brought to Super Duty trucks. The big advantage of hybrid technology is that weight does not directly affect the efficiency of power recovery, and would scale well even to vehicles that need to be towing in excess of 10k lbs. [0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4W-P5aCWJs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4W-P5aCWJs