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> The primary take-away seems to be that, since 2015, Republican confidence in higher ed has dropped 36%, and Democrat confidence has dropped 12%. It’s a littl

> The primary take-away seems to be that, since 2015, Republican confidence in higher ed has dropped 36%, and Democrat confidence has dropped 12%. It’s a little hard to tease out how much of this is due to the demographics of Republicans and Democrats changing. There’s been a significant shift in education level between the two parties recently, and this may have offset some of what would otherwise be broad based decreases. The broader decrease in faith in higher education is still quite clear signal though.

roenxi 2y ago
That demographic theory seems a bit feeble. According to the polling back in 2015 there was a slight bias but splitting by politics painted the same picture in a with minor adjustments. Then there was a massive realignment where suddenly the right wing "lost confidence". It isn't obvious why less-educated individuals would have no confidence in education either. That is like saying less-physically-endowed people don't respect height or muscle mass! People can respect what they do not have if it is respectable, and they can have confidence in things they personally lack if they are things inspiring confidence. Although what the word "confidence" means here is a baffler. It is beyond vague.
- KennyBlanken 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - matrix87 2y ago
    Don't know why you're getting downvoted... seems very well said. There's this disturbing attitude in right wing media that almost celebrates people deciding to turn away from higher ed. It's like they actually want people poor and stupid The one thing you don't mention though are the effects of free trade policies and immigration on their economic conditions I think the general pattern here is a sort of self-reenforcing attitude associated with poverty. It's hard for me to look at more extreme progressives trying to eliminate high ability classes and not see some of the same thing
    - hilbert42 2y ago
      "Don't know why you're getting downvoted..." Ha, some of my most thoughtful and most balanced posts where I've put both sides of an argument have been downvoted the most. Sometimes—usually with controversial topics—I've sat on my post and watched the votes oscillating up and down so in the end I've ended up with none or near zero. From my experience, almost inevitably, downvoters don't offer a counter viewpoint or argument. Whilst irrelevant when it comes to my posts, it is important when scaled up to real politics. Voting out of gut reaction isn't helpful. It seems to me that as gut reaction can now be manipulated so easily in today's world that it's a substantial reason why democracies and the democratic process are in such a mess.
      - throwaway7ahgb 2y ago
        IMHO you should be downvoted for comments such as "It's not because anyone in the Republican party actually cares about any of this". This dismisses 100M+ people and their beliefs.
        hilbert42 2y ago
        Right, I was making a general point, sometimes it's difficult to summarize succinctly in a few words. It's why I rarely downvote a comment despite errors or political views (from my stance I much prefer to argue the point giving my reasons). That said, some comments are just so wrong and or egregious that it's obvious additional comments won't help and if posted they'd only inflame things further. I've learned this from experience, on more than one occasion I've seen HN delete a complete thread (full length of the chain to the top) after I made a very reasonable reply to a very egregious comment posted somewhere near its bottom. The poster then took ofence and still others came to my defense and matters cascaded to the point where it was deleted. If I'd ignored the comment or just downvoted it then it's likely the thread would have remained intact. Trouble was many other intelligent comments were deleted in the process.
        ryandrake 2y ago
        It's almost impossible to make generalizations on HN. You'll say "X is typically Y" and someone will always come out of the woodwork to reply "Well here is a case where X is not Y. Your entire point is invalid. Gotcha!"
UberFly 2y ago
"There’s been a significant shift in education level between the two parties recently" Not sure I believe this. What's the source of this statistic?
- Propelloni 2y ago
  I don't know if it qualifies as a shift, significant or otherwise, because I don't know how it was before. But a quick internet search for "biden trump voters education level" brought forth a few reports by news sites and research outfits. According to Ipsos and Reuters about a third of Trump voters have a college degree or better. Pew has an more detailed analysis of voters for the 2016. 2018, and 2020 elections here [1], including education, which seems to confirm this. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-biden...
- trealira 2y ago
  I'm not that person, but the Pew Research Center says that, in 1994, 57% of Democratic voters were white non-college graduates, while in 2019, it was 30%. For Republicans, 68% of their voters were white non-college graduates in 1994, and it was 57% in 2019. The Democrats seem to have been shedding this demographic much faster than Republicans have been. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-... Pew also has a more up-to-date analysis of partisanship and education here: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-by-race-ethnicity-and-education/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship... They do say that there's a relatively recent shift in voters who went to college towards the Democratic party. The Republican Party now holds a 6 percentage point advantage over the Democratic Party (51% to 45%) among voters who do not have a bachelor’s degree. Voters who do not have a four-year degree make up a 60% majority of all registered voters. By comparison, the Democratic Party has a 13-point advantage (55% vs. 42%) among those with a bachelor’s degree or more formal education. This pattern is relatively recent. In fact, until about two decades ago the Republican Party fared better among college graduates and worse among those without a college degree.

roenxi 2y ago

That demographic theory seems a bit feeble. According to the polling back in 2015 there was a slight bias but splitting by politics painted the same picture in a with minor adjustments. Then there was a massive realignment where suddenly the right wing "lost confidence". It isn't obvious why less-educated individuals would have no confidence in education either. That is like saying less-physically-endowed people don't respect height or muscle mass! People can respect what they do not have if it is respectable, and they can have confidence in things they personally lack if they are things inspiring confidence. Although what the word "confidence" means here is a baffler. It is beyond vague.

KennyBlanken 2y ago
[flagged]
- matrix87 2y ago
  Don't know why you're getting downvoted... seems very well said. There's this disturbing attitude in right wing media that almost celebrates people deciding to turn away from higher ed. It's like they actually want people poor and stupid The one thing you don't mention though are the effects of free trade policies and immigration on their economic conditions I think the general pattern here is a sort of self-reenforcing attitude associated with poverty. It's hard for me to look at more extreme progressives trying to eliminate high ability classes and not see some of the same thing
  - hilbert42 2y ago
    "Don't know why you're getting downvoted..." Ha, some of my most thoughtful and most balanced posts where I've put both sides of an argument have been downvoted the most. Sometimes—usually with controversial topics—I've sat on my post and watched the votes oscillating up and down so in the end I've ended up with none or near zero. From my experience, almost inevitably, downvoters don't offer a counter viewpoint or argument. Whilst irrelevant when it comes to my posts, it is important when scaled up to real politics. Voting out of gut reaction isn't helpful. It seems to me that as gut reaction can now be manipulated so easily in today's world that it's a substantial reason why democracies and the democratic process are in such a mess.
    - throwaway7ahgb 2y ago
      IMHO you should be downvoted for comments such as "It's not because anyone in the Republican party actually cares about any of this". This dismisses 100M+ people and their beliefs.
      - hilbert42 2y ago
        Right, I was making a general point, sometimes it's difficult to summarize succinctly in a few words. It's why I rarely downvote a comment despite errors or political views (from my stance I much prefer to argue the point giving my reasons). That said, some comments are just so wrong and or egregious that it's obvious additional comments won't help and if posted they'd only inflame things further. I've learned this from experience, on more than one occasion I've seen HN delete a complete thread (full length of the chain to the top) after I made a very reasonable reply to a very egregious comment posted somewhere near its bottom. The poster then took ofence and still others came to my defense and matters cascaded to the point where it was deleted. If I'd ignored the comment or just downvoted it then it's likely the thread would have remained intact. Trouble was many other intelligent comments were deleted in the process.
        ryandrake 2y ago
        It's almost impossible to make generalizations on HN. You'll say "X is typically Y" and someone will always come out of the woodwork to reply "Well here is a case where X is not Y. Your entire point is invalid. Gotcha!"

UberFly 2y ago

"There’s been a significant shift in education level between the two parties recently" Not sure I believe this. What's the source of this statistic?

Propelloni 2y ago
I don't know if it qualifies as a shift, significant or otherwise, because I don't know how it was before. But a quick internet search for "biden trump voters education level" brought forth a few reports by news sites and research outfits. According to Ipsos and Reuters about a third of Trump voters have a college degree or better. Pew has an more detailed analysis of voters for the 2016. 2018, and 2020 elections here [1], including education, which seems to confirm this. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-biden...
trealira 2y ago
I'm not that person, but the Pew Research Center says that, in 1994, 57% of Democratic voters were white non-college graduates, while in 2019, it was 30%. For Republicans, 68% of their voters were white non-college graduates in 1994, and it was 57% in 2019. The Democrats seem to have been shedding this demographic much faster than Republicans have been. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-u-s-electorate-race-and-education-remain-stark-dividing-lines/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/in-changing-... Pew also has a more up-to-date analysis of partisanship and education here: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-by-race-ethnicity-and-education/ https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship... They do say that there's a relatively recent shift in voters who went to college towards the Democratic party. The Republican Party now holds a 6 percentage point advantage over the Democratic Party (51% to 45%) among voters who do not have a bachelor’s degree. Voters who do not have a four-year degree make up a 60% majority of all registered voters. By comparison, the Democratic Party has a 13-point advantage (55% vs. 42%) among those with a bachelor’s degree or more formal education. This pattern is relatively recent. In fact, until about two decades ago the Republican Party fared better among college graduates and worse among those without a college degree.