3 ms·
> The obvious solution for a data scientist like me was to use machine learning. But I didn’t. I just took the average score by the player during the last 5 gam
by mp05 2y ago
> The obvious solution for a data scientist like me was to use machine learning. But I didn’t. I just took the average score by the player during the last 5 games.
Wait, is he cracking a joke? If so, haha.
- glitchc 2y agoSurprisingly effective strategy. I've won a fantasy hockey pool by picking the next top available player.
- mp05 2y agoGiven that the mean is literally the expected value, I'm not all that surprised!
- alexmolas 2y agoBut the expected value of past games may not be the same as the expected value of future games.
- glitchc 2y agoIt begs the question as to why one would prefer a more complex strategy.
- mp05 2y agoCertainly the desire for a more sophisticated and robust model, but I'd be interested to understand the LOE involved and what levels of improvements are offered by said efforts. Perhaps the author can offer links to approachable books/articles on the matter?
- nwsm 2y agoFirst of all, other players are likely using the same naive approach and you need to differentiate yourself. Second, using simple EVs will give you consistent, but not top, results. You will likely always finish in the top third, but never in the top 1%, losing out to people who successfully predicted a low EV player's incredibly high output in a game.