4 ms·
If you want to maximize your chances of winning a very large game like this, you need to play quite a lot riskier than is intuitive, you definitely do not want
by dmurray 2y ago
If you want to maximize your chances of winning a very large game like this, you need to play quite a lot riskier than is intuitive, you definitely do not want to pick a popular player if your model predicts someone else will outperform him.
If you want to finish top 5%, having the best model should do it, with some attention to risk management in the last few games of the season (play riskier if you are in the 90th percentile than in the 99th).
If you want to maximise your chance of beating your friends, have the best model and think a little game theory at the end of the season based on whether you are leading or chasing.
- 2d8a875f-39a2-4 2y agoyeah matches my experience
- alexmolas 2y agoI don't have the numbers to back this opinion, but I believe that consistently ranking in the top 5% in all the games will greatly increase your chances of winning the league. It's not necessary to win every stage, but just having high scores consistently will likely make you win the league.
- 2d8a875f-39a2-4 2y agoI also don't have numbers, but I'd opine that you need that (top 5% every round) AND you need to be to have a few big rounds where you greatly outperform almost everyone. Getting those big rounds means taking some calculated risks.