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The UK seems like it should be a slam dunk for EV adoption; moderate climate, high gas prices, short distances, and an affluent populace. Yet Germany (and Europ

The UK seems like it should be a slam dunk for EV adoption; moderate climate, high gas prices, short distances, and an affluent populace. Yet Germany (and Europe at large) is handily beating them: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country Why is this?

Symbiote 2y ago
5.0% vs 5.4% of cars on the road? That's probably the slightly higher incomes in Germany.
stuartjohnson12 2y ago
Our luddite conspiracy theory faction seems more organised than the rest of Europe. Pushing measures to encourage green adoption runs the risk of attracting the ire of an exceptionally loud and persistent minority who are convinced by things like the bizarre conspiracy theory[1] that policies to curb pollution are part of a great plot to control how often you're allowed to go to the shops. [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66990302 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66990302
simonbarker87 2y ago
Population density explains a lot of difference between UK and Europe.
- arethuza 2y ago
  That does rather depend where you live in the UK though and also where you regularly travel to...
- pjc50 2y ago
  Seem fairly similar, although the UK is denser than all of Europe except Belgium, Netherlands and the microstates. Is that good or bad for EV adoption? Is it skewed by Londoners often not having cars at all?
swarnie 2y ago
Personally its because there was a lot of question mark hanging over second hand EVs for ages. If i buy this car for £10k will it need a new 8k battery in 18 months? I don't know if this is still accurate but it was top of my mind 5 years ago when i last changed one of our cars. Ill consider EVs again next year when one is due for replacement at which point ill need to total up the additional home infrastructure in the price.
- pornel 2y ago
  There's over a decade of real-world data available from Tesla and Leaf, and the batteries are very long-lived: they degrade about 1%-2% per year with a good battery management system, and around 3% per year with Leaf's weaksauce one. Additionally, batteries are getting cheaper and more energy dense, so when it's time to replace them, you'll probably get an upgrade for cheaper. Leaf started with 24kWh batteries, and now you get 40kWh for the same price, and a 64kWh upgrade option. People often extrapolate from their experience with cell phone batteries, but these "lithium" and those "lithium" batteries are very different. There are different chemistries, different conditioning with active cooling/heating, different rates of discharge, and a big difference in redundancy when you have 1 cell vs 7000 of them.
- thebruce87m 2y ago
  Many of them come with generous battery warranties. Tesla has 8 years: https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty
pjc50 2y ago
I'm starting to see quite a few on the roads, with the distinctive green flash on the numberplate. The arrival of "MG" (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, but doing business as a traditional British brand) has helped. But the built environment is against us; too many people rely on on-street parking. And the recent spike in electricity prices last winter has badly damaged the cost competitiveness argument.
ageitgey 2y ago
What do you mean? The UK and Germany have very similar EV adoption (~24% of car sales in 2023).
graemep 2y ago
I think the biggest problem is that although people do mostly short journeys, a lot of people do some long journeys too. I mostly drive within a few miles, or at most 15 of so miles of where I live. However, I occasionally go say 200 miles without a convenient chance to recharge (have done so twice in the last month). I know people who drive much further - e.g. one regularly drives from the Midlands to the North of Scotland. There are also people who do not have a car at all (I never did when I lived in London, nor in Manchester till I had a child) or who drive very little. If you do low mileage the case (financial and environmental) for using an EV is a lot weaker. A lot of houses have no where to put a charger - lots of on-street parking. I do not have the data for a proper answer, but I think it has to do with patterns of usage and housing.
cameronh90 2y ago
Personally (in the UK) I don't have an EV because I only drive about 2000 miles a year. Even with our high petrol prices, it's still not worth paying the EV premium versus a "cheap run-around" ICE car. While I do drive below the UK norm, the the mode miles per car is only get about 3500 miles per year and the median about 7000. Last time I looked into it (which admittedly was during COVID crazy car price era), when comparing cars lb for lb, it only really made sense to get an EV if you plan to drive it more than 10k miles per year. High electric prices don't help. That being said, I'd imagine for most people the decision as to which sort of car to buy is more about emotion and presentation than it is about cold hard logic.
- thebruce87m 2y ago
  > High electric prices don't help. Octopus gives me 7.5p per kWh at night, working out about 3p/mile for me vs about 12p/mile for my old diesel. Not sure how you got 10k miles, but every mile is cheaper if you just look at fuel and can charge at home.
  - cameronh90 2y ago
    I did say the electricity prices don't help, not that they were the sole determining factor. If electricity was 3p/kWh, the crossover point would be a lot sooner. The main difference is the depreciation of the car itself and, surprisingly, the insurance which for me was quite a bit higher on every EV I looked at. For an EV that's equivalent in spec to an older efficient and ULEZ-compliant petrol car, the EV is more expensive and has higher depreciation costs. Since I only drive a few thousand miles, I only spend a few hundred pounds per year in petrol, but even at 10k miles I'd only be spending roughly 1200 GBP with my decently efficient engine, compared to 400 GBP with an EV, which isn't a huge saving. That also assumes I always charge at home, which would not be the case as my driving pattern is usually 1 or 2 miles a week locally with the occasional 300+ mile trip. I assume you're probably using Octopus Go for that price, so you'd have to account for the fact that it makes your electricity more expensive through the rest of the day too for it to be a fair comparison. That being said, I personally use Octopus Agile, which makes it really hard to figure out precisely how much it'd end up costing me.

Symbiote 2y ago

5.0% vs 5.4% of cars on the road? That's probably the slightly higher incomes in Germany.

stuartjohnson12 2y ago

Our luddite conspiracy theory faction seems more organised than the rest of Europe. Pushing measures to encourage green adoption runs the risk of attracting the ire of an exceptionally loud and persistent minority who are convinced by things like the bizarre conspiracy theory[1] that policies to curb pollution are part of a great plot to control how often you're allowed to go to the shops. [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66990302 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66990302

simonbarker87 2y ago

Population density explains a lot of difference between UK and Europe.

arethuza 2y ago
That does rather depend where you live in the UK though and also where you regularly travel to...
pjc50 2y ago
Seem fairly similar, although the UK is denser than all of Europe except Belgium, Netherlands and the microstates. Is that good or bad for EV adoption? Is it skewed by Londoners often not having cars at all?

swarnie 2y ago

Personally its because there was a lot of question mark hanging over second hand EVs for ages. If i buy this car for £10k will it need a new 8k battery in 18 months? I don't know if this is still accurate but it was top of my mind 5 years ago when i last changed one of our cars. Ill consider EVs again next year when one is due for replacement at which point ill need to total up the additional home infrastructure in the price.

pornel 2y ago
There's over a decade of real-world data available from Tesla and Leaf, and the batteries are very long-lived: they degrade about 1%-2% per year with a good battery management system, and around 3% per year with Leaf's weaksauce one. Additionally, batteries are getting cheaper and more energy dense, so when it's time to replace them, you'll probably get an upgrade for cheaper. Leaf started with 24kWh batteries, and now you get 40kWh for the same price, and a 64kWh upgrade option. People often extrapolate from their experience with cell phone batteries, but these "lithium" and those "lithium" batteries are very different. There are different chemistries, different conditioning with active cooling/heating, different rates of discharge, and a big difference in redundancy when you have 1 cell vs 7000 of them.
thebruce87m 2y ago
Many of them come with generous battery warranties. Tesla has 8 years: https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty

pjc50 2y ago

I'm starting to see quite a few on the roads, with the distinctive green flash on the numberplate. The arrival of "MG" (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, but doing business as a traditional British brand) has helped. But the built environment is against us; too many people rely on on-street parking. And the recent spike in electricity prices last winter has badly damaged the cost competitiveness argument.

ageitgey 2y ago

What do you mean? The UK and Germany have very similar EV adoption (~24% of car sales in 2023).

graemep 2y ago

I think the biggest problem is that although people do mostly short journeys, a lot of people do some long journeys too. I mostly drive within a few miles, or at most 15 of so miles of where I live. However, I occasionally go say 200 miles without a convenient chance to recharge (have done so twice in the last month). I know people who drive much further - e.g. one regularly drives from the Midlands to the North of Scotland. There are also people who do not have a car at all (I never did when I lived in London, nor in Manchester till I had a child) or who drive very little. If you do low mileage the case (financial and environmental) for using an EV is a lot weaker. A lot of houses have no where to put a charger - lots of on-street parking. I do not have the data for a proper answer, but I think it has to do with patterns of usage and housing.

cameronh90 2y ago

Personally (in the UK) I don't have an EV because I only drive about 2000 miles a year. Even with our high petrol prices, it's still not worth paying the EV premium versus a "cheap run-around" ICE car. While I do drive below the UK norm, the the mode miles per car is only get about 3500 miles per year and the median about 7000. Last time I looked into it (which admittedly was during COVID crazy car price era), when comparing cars lb for lb, it only really made sense to get an EV if you plan to drive it more than 10k miles per year. High electric prices don't help. That being said, I'd imagine for most people the decision as to which sort of car to buy is more about emotion and presentation than it is about cold hard logic.

thebruce87m 2y ago
> High electric prices don't help. Octopus gives me 7.5p per kWh at night, working out about 3p/mile for me vs about 12p/mile for my old diesel. Not sure how you got 10k miles, but every mile is cheaper if you just look at fuel and can charge at home.
- cameronh90 2y ago
  I did say the electricity prices don't help, not that they were the sole determining factor. If electricity was 3p/kWh, the crossover point would be a lot sooner. The main difference is the depreciation of the car itself and, surprisingly, the insurance which for me was quite a bit higher on every EV I looked at. For an EV that's equivalent in spec to an older efficient and ULEZ-compliant petrol car, the EV is more expensive and has higher depreciation costs. Since I only drive a few thousand miles, I only spend a few hundred pounds per year in petrol, but even at 10k miles I'd only be spending roughly 1200 GBP with my decently efficient engine, compared to 400 GBP with an EV, which isn't a huge saving. That also assumes I always charge at home, which would not be the case as my driving pattern is usually 1 or 2 miles a week locally with the occasional 300+ mile trip. I assume you're probably using Octopus Go for that price, so you'd have to account for the fact that it makes your electricity more expensive through the rest of the day too for it to be a fair comparison. That being said, I personally use Octopus Agile, which makes it really hard to figure out precisely how much it'd end up costing me.