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In the aggregate is the "baby bust" a real problem? Even a halving of current world population, which isn't close to happening in the next 100 years, would only

In the aggregate is the "baby bust" a real problem? Even a halving of current world population, which isn't close to happening in the next 100 years, would only take us back to the population level of 1975. If it's really true that productivity has gone up since 1975, we should be able to maintain the same standard of living as now. As a corollary, if people are having fewer children with more thought and deliberation, then those children are probably better cared-for. I can't see that as a bad thing.

lesuorac 2y ago
> If it's really true that productivity has gone up since 1975, we should be able to maintain the same standard of living as now. I don't think thats going to be accurate. A population of purely 20-40yr olds is going to be way more productive than a population of 60-80yr olds. This is typically the concern people bring up with the baby bust stats. We achieved a lot of productivity by having a "young" demographic where there wasn't a lot of 60yr olds to each say 50- yr olds. There's going to be a productivity drop off as people voluntary retire or become too injured to work their original jobs. Additionally, older people require more supportive care so more old people means less young people in more productive (according to GDP) positions. Take a look at Russia's demographics [1]. That bulge around 40yrs old is going to become a bulge at 60yrs old in 20 years while a lot of them will die so it'll be a smaller bulge at 60yrs old the 20yr old bulge will remain quite a bit smaller. Sure, Russia as a country won't disappear because of this; but they will be less competitive on the global scale and a lot of menial jobs will go unfilled because there just aren't bodies. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/...
- triceratops 2y ago
  It's bad timing for Russia now. If it were to happen to some other country 20 years from now, it would be less bad. For starters, we'd have 20 years of additional advances in robotics, healthcare, eldercare, or artificial intelligence. Perhaps GenAI will wipe out a lot of white collar work in that time. This frees up people to do physical labor. Maybe it supercharges robotics or drones by letting them understand the physical world better. Think robotic orderlies changing bedpans, or robots picking fruit. Then we need fewer people for labor. More likely it will be a combination of both.

lesuorac 2y ago

> If it's really true that productivity has gone up since 1975, we should be able to maintain the same standard of living as now. I don't think thats going to be accurate. A population of purely 20-40yr olds is going to be way more productive than a population of 60-80yr olds. This is typically the concern people bring up with the baby bust stats. We achieved a lot of productivity by having a "young" demographic where there wasn't a lot of 60yr olds to each say 50- yr olds. There's going to be a productivity drop off as people voluntary retire or become too injured to work their original jobs. Additionally, older people require more supportive care so more old people means less young people in more productive (according to GDP) positions. Take a look at Russia's demographics [1]. That bulge around 40yrs old is going to become a bulge at 60yrs old in 20 years while a lot of them will die so it'll be a smaller bulge at 60yrs old the 20yr old bulge will remain quite a bit smaller. Sure, Russia as a country won't disappear because of this; but they will be less competitive on the global scale and a lot of menial jobs will go unfilled because there just aren't bodies. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/...

triceratops 2y ago
It's bad timing for Russia now. If it were to happen to some other country 20 years from now, it would be less bad. For starters, we'd have 20 years of additional advances in robotics, healthcare, eldercare, or artificial intelligence. Perhaps GenAI will wipe out a lot of white collar work in that time. This frees up people to do physical labor. Maybe it supercharges robotics or drones by letting them understand the physical world better. Think robotic orderlies changing bedpans, or robots picking fruit. Then we need fewer people for labor. More likely it will be a combination of both.