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I realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold. [1] https://manifold.markets/j
by fastball 2y ago
I realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold.
[1] https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...
- jug 2y agoIt helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoThe prediction markets always over hype recent events