4 ms·
I doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few
by EasyMark 2y ago
I doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few points ahead in almost all the swing states.
- fastball 2y agoI realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold. [1] https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...
- jug 2y agoIt helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoThe prediction markets always over hype recent events