3 ms·

You know, I've changed my opinion since my initial reaction after thinking more. Teddy Roosevelt getting shot in 1912 didn't get him a third term. I'm not sure

You know, I've changed my opinion since my initial reaction after thinking more. Teddy Roosevelt getting shot in 1912 didn't get him a third term. I'm not sure how much independents and undecided will be swayed.

skissane 2y ago
The 1912 election was very unusual though – in rather different ways from the current one. It was a three way contest between Wilson (Democratic), Roosevelt (Progressive) and Taft (Republican) – all three of whom won electoral college votes – plus Debs (Socialist), who while he didn't win any electoral college votes, got 6% of the popular vote. I'd be very careful drawing any conclusions from the 1912 election, unless we were dealing with a similar sort of 3/4-way contest – which we aren't, RFK Jr might get 5-6% of the popular vote like Debs did, but no way he's winning anything in the electoral college.
- kemayo 2y ago
  There's three different assassination attempts on major-party candidates in the 70s (Ford twice, Wallace once), none of which propelled them to victory. Situations are quite different, of course.
  - TeaBrain 2y ago
    Ford was never hit so the perception was different. There is no perceived valor or semi-martyrdom without injury. Wallace completely withdrew from the election after the attempt. He wasn't even a candidate in the general election.
kemayo 2y ago
The election rests on the "undecided voter", which is a person I have a really hard time understanding at this point. So yeah, what effect will this have? Damned if I know.
- chgs 2y ago
  Also depends on who turns up. If a party can’t get its voters to come out - especially reluctant voters, that can make a big difference. If you are a Democrat but aren’t that keen on Biden and you think he’ll win your area anyway, you might lot bother with the half hour trip, and that might swing the election.
- temporarely 2y ago
  [flagged]

skissane 2y ago

The 1912 election was very unusual though – in rather different ways from the current one. It was a three way contest between Wilson (Democratic), Roosevelt (Progressive) and Taft (Republican) – all three of whom won electoral college votes – plus Debs (Socialist), who while he didn't win any electoral college votes, got 6% of the popular vote. I'd be very careful drawing any conclusions from the 1912 election, unless we were dealing with a similar sort of 3/4-way contest – which we aren't, RFK Jr might get 5-6% of the popular vote like Debs did, but no way he's winning anything in the electoral college.

kemayo 2y ago
There's three different assassination attempts on major-party candidates in the 70s (Ford twice, Wallace once), none of which propelled them to victory. Situations are quite different, of course.
- TeaBrain 2y ago
  Ford was never hit so the perception was different. There is no perceived valor or semi-martyrdom without injury. Wallace completely withdrew from the election after the attempt. He wasn't even a candidate in the general election.

kemayo 2y ago

The election rests on the "undecided voter", which is a person I have a really hard time understanding at this point. So yeah, what effect will this have? Damned if I know.

chgs 2y ago
Also depends on who turns up. If a party can’t get its voters to come out - especially reluctant voters, that can make a big difference. If you are a Democrat but aren’t that keen on Biden and you think he’ll win your area anyway, you might lot bother with the half hour trip, and that might swing the election.
temporarely 2y ago
[flagged]