6 ms·

Yeah, martyr effect is likely it seems.

kemayo 2y ago
In the short term perhaps, but with four months to go I doubt it'll have staying power unless Trump can (miraculously given his personality) avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up. Relatedly, the US election timeframe is ridiculous.
- datameta 2y ago
  You know, I've changed my opinion since my initial reaction after thinking more. Teddy Roosevelt getting shot in 1912 didn't get him a third term. I'm not sure how much independents and undecided will be swayed.
  - skissane 2y ago
    The 1912 election was very unusual though – in rather different ways from the current one. It was a three way contest between Wilson (Democratic), Roosevelt (Progressive) and Taft (Republican) – all three of whom won electoral college votes – plus Debs (Socialist), who while he didn't win any electoral college votes, got 6% of the popular vote. I'd be very careful drawing any conclusions from the 1912 election, unless we were dealing with a similar sort of 3/4-way contest – which we aren't, RFK Jr might get 5-6% of the popular vote like Debs did, but no way he's winning anything in the electoral college.
    - kemayo 2y ago
      There's three different assassination attempts on major-party candidates in the 70s (Ford twice, Wallace once), none of which propelled them to victory. Situations are quite different, of course.
      - TeaBrain 2y ago
        Ford was never hit so the perception was different. There is no perceived valor or semi-martyrdom without injury. Wallace completely withdrew from the election after the attempt. He wasn't even a candidate in the general election.
  - kemayo 2y ago
    The election rests on the "undecided voter", which is a person I have a really hard time understanding at this point. So yeah, what effect will this have? Damned if I know.
    - chgs 2y ago
      Also depends on who turns up. If a party can’t get its voters to come out - especially reluctant voters, that can make a big difference. If you are a Democrat but aren’t that keen on Biden and you think he’ll win your area anyway, you might lot bother with the half hour trip, and that might swing the election.
    - temporarely 2y ago
      [flagged]
- RockRobotRock 2y ago
  there is not a snowball's chance in hell trump loses unless he's shot again and the guy doesn't miss
- lolinder 2y ago
  He's in an election against an opponent whose party is actively hoping to replace because he's old and senile and no one thinks he's capable of working under pressure. Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure. Unfortunately, the election was absolutely decided today.
  - mandeepj 2y ago
    > Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure. What capability he showed? Knowing you are guarded by tens and hundreds of officers, anyone would raise a fist.
    - lolinder 2y ago
      He was shot in the ear and presumably frazzled and had the presence of mind to recognize an enormous political windfall he could capitalize on rather than just letting the Secret Service usher him away as they clearly wanted to.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - csomar 2y ago
      Most people will be scared if they hear nearby gunshots and shit their pants if they get personally hit.
    - swader999 2y ago
      For all the staged Putin pics of him on a horse bare chested, or Biden wearing aviator glasses, old bone spurs did all right yesterday.
    - 9659 2y ago
      Well, he wanted to put his shoes on. Priorities!
    - 2y ago
- JasserInicide 2y ago
  Trump just secured the election with today. Have you seen those pictures of him with blood on his face and his fist in the air? That shit is going in the history books. If you didn't think all the people who voted for Trump in 2020 and everyone who didn't but wants Biden gone weren't galvanized enough already to vote, they sure as fucking hell are now.
- xdennis 2y ago
  > avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up. When has any scandalous Trump story damaged him? The access Hollywood tape came out weeks before the 2016 election and he still got elected.
EasyMark 2y ago
I doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few points ahead in almost all the swing states.
- fastball 2y ago
  I realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold. [1] https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...
  - jug 2y ago
    It helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.
  - HDThoreaun 2y ago
    The prediction markets always over hype recent events

In the short term perhaps, but with four months to go I doubt it'll have staying power unless Trump can (miraculously given his personality) avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up. Relatedly, the US election timeframe is ridiculous.

datameta 2y ago
You know, I've changed my opinion since my initial reaction after thinking more. Teddy Roosevelt getting shot in 1912 didn't get him a third term. I'm not sure how much independents and undecided will be swayed.
- skissane 2y ago
  The 1912 election was very unusual though – in rather different ways from the current one. It was a three way contest between Wilson (Democratic), Roosevelt (Progressive) and Taft (Republican) – all three of whom won electoral college votes – plus Debs (Socialist), who while he didn't win any electoral college votes, got 6% of the popular vote. I'd be very careful drawing any conclusions from the 1912 election, unless we were dealing with a similar sort of 3/4-way contest – which we aren't, RFK Jr might get 5-6% of the popular vote like Debs did, but no way he's winning anything in the electoral college.
  - kemayo 2y ago
    There's three different assassination attempts on major-party candidates in the 70s (Ford twice, Wallace once), none of which propelled them to victory. Situations are quite different, of course.
    - TeaBrain 2y ago
      Ford was never hit so the perception was different. There is no perceived valor or semi-martyrdom without injury. Wallace completely withdrew from the election after the attempt. He wasn't even a candidate in the general election.
- kemayo 2y ago
  The election rests on the "undecided voter", which is a person I have a really hard time understanding at this point. So yeah, what effect will this have? Damned if I know.
  - chgs 2y ago
    Also depends on who turns up. If a party can’t get its voters to come out - especially reluctant voters, that can make a big difference. If you are a Democrat but aren’t that keen on Biden and you think he’ll win your area anyway, you might lot bother with the half hour trip, and that might swing the election.
  - temporarely 2y ago
    [flagged]
RockRobotRock 2y ago
there is not a snowball's chance in hell trump loses unless he's shot again and the guy doesn't miss
lolinder 2y ago
He's in an election against an opponent whose party is actively hoping to replace because he's old and senile and no one thinks he's capable of working under pressure. Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure. Unfortunately, the election was absolutely decided today.
- mandeepj 2y ago
  > Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure. What capability he showed? Knowing you are guarded by tens and hundreds of officers, anyone would raise a fist.
  - lolinder 2y ago
    He was shot in the ear and presumably frazzled and had the presence of mind to recognize an enormous political windfall he could capitalize on rather than just letting the Secret Service usher him away as they clearly wanted to.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
  - csomar 2y ago
    Most people will be scared if they hear nearby gunshots and shit their pants if they get personally hit.
  - swader999 2y ago
    For all the staged Putin pics of him on a horse bare chested, or Biden wearing aviator glasses, old bone spurs did all right yesterday.
  - 9659 2y ago
    Well, he wanted to put his shoes on. Priorities!
  - 2y ago
JasserInicide 2y ago
Trump just secured the election with today. Have you seen those pictures of him with blood on his face and his fist in the air? That shit is going in the history books. If you didn't think all the people who voted for Trump in 2020 and everyone who didn't but wants Biden gone weren't galvanized enough already to vote, they sure as fucking hell are now.
xdennis 2y ago
> avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up. When has any scandalous Trump story damaged him? The access Hollywood tape came out weeks before the 2016 election and he still got elected.

EasyMark 2y ago

I doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few points ahead in almost all the swing states.

fastball 2y ago
I realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold. [1] https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...
- jug 2y ago
  It helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.
- HDThoreaun 2y ago
  The prediction markets always over hype recent events