8 ms·
This is really bad news for the upcoming election.
by replwoacause 2y ago
This is really bad news for the upcoming election.
- datameta 2y agoYeah, martyr effect is likely it seems.
- kemayo 2y agoIn the short term perhaps, but with four months to go I doubt it'll have staying power unless Trump can (miraculously given his personality) avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up. Relatedly, the US election timeframe is ridiculous.
- datameta 2y agoYou know, I've changed my opinion since my initial reaction after thinking more. Teddy Roosevelt getting shot in 1912 didn't get him a third term. I'm not sure how much independents and undecided will be swayed.
- skissane 2y agoThe 1912 election was very unusual though – in rather different ways from the current one. It was a three way contest between Wilson (Democratic), Roosevelt (Progressive) and Taft (Republican) – all three of whom won electoral college votes – plus Debs (Socialist), who while he didn't win any electoral college votes, got 6% of the popular vote. I'd be very careful drawing any conclusions from the 1912 election, unless we were dealing with a similar sort of 3/4-way contest – which we aren't, RFK Jr might get 5-6% of the popular vote like Debs did, but no way he's winning anything in the electoral college.
- kemayo 2y agoThere's three different assassination attempts on major-party candidates in the 70s (Ford twice, Wallace once), none of which propelled them to victory. Situations are quite different, of course.
- TeaBrain 2y agoFord was never hit so the perception was different. There is no perceived valor or semi-martyrdom without injury. Wallace completely withdrew from the election after the attempt. He wasn't even a candidate in the general election.
- kemayo 2y agoThe election rests on the "undecided voter", which is a person I have a really hard time understanding at this point. So yeah, what effect will this have? Damned if I know.
- chgs 2y agoAlso depends on who turns up. If a party can’t get its voters to come out - especially reluctant voters, that can make a big difference. If you are a Democrat but aren’t that keen on Biden and you think he’ll win your area anyway, you might lot bother with the half hour trip, and that might swing the election.
- temporarely 2y ago[flagged]
- RockRobotRock 2y agothere is not a snowball's chance in hell trump loses unless he's shot again and the guy doesn't miss
- lolinder 2y agoHe's in an election against an opponent whose party is actively hoping to replace because he's old and senile and no one thinks he's capable of working under pressure. Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure. Unfortunately, the election was absolutely decided today.
- mandeepj 2y ago> Trump proved in two minutes that whatever else you can say about him, he's very capable of responding well to pressure. What capability he showed? Knowing you are guarded by tens and hundreds of officers, anyone would raise a fist.
- lolinder 2y agoHe was shot in the ear and presumably frazzled and had the presence of mind to recognize an enormous political windfall he could capitalize on rather than just letting the Secret Service usher him away as they clearly wanted to.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- csomar 2y agoMost people will be scared if they hear nearby gunshots and shit their pants if they get personally hit.
- swader999 2y agoFor all the staged Putin pics of him on a horse bare chested, or Biden wearing aviator glasses, old bone spurs did all right yesterday.
- 9659 2y agoWell, he wanted to put his shoes on. Priorities!
- 2y ago
- JasserInicide 2y agoTrump just secured the election with today. Have you seen those pictures of him with blood on his face and his fist in the air? That shit is going in the history books. If you didn't think all the people who voted for Trump in 2020 and everyone who didn't but wants Biden gone weren't galvanized enough already to vote, they sure as fucking hell are now.
- xdennis 2y ago> avoid any other scandalous story about himself cropping up. When has any scandalous Trump story damaged him? The access Hollywood tape came out weeks before the 2016 election and he still got elected.
- EasyMark 2y agoI doubt if this will make any difference in the polls. It -might- inspire his followers to be more likely to turn out to vote though, and they’re already a few points ahead in almost all the swing states.
- fastball 2y agoI realize these aren't the polls you mean, but it has already caused a 10% uptick[1] in likelihood of Trump winning on Manifold. [1] https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presi...
- jug 2y agoIt helped Bolsanaro too after the stabbing. Humans can be very predictable.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoThe prediction markets always over hype recent events
- autoexec 2y ago[flagged]
- kemayo 2y agoThere seems to be a dead person on a nearby roof, who the news is claiming was the shooter, with an interview with someone who was outside the event saying that they saw said rooftop-person get shot presumably by the secret service. https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c51yly4085lo https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c51yly4085lo ...honestly, if they're right about the person on the roof being the shooter, there was a serious fuck-up by event security.
- meiraleal 2y agoAnd a hell of a missed rifle shot that made no noise.
- autoexec 2y agoThere were several shots heard in the video I saw. I assumed they were all from the rifle.
- ceejayoz 2y agoSeveral shots, a pause, a shot, and someone says they're clear and they start moving. Presumably the final shot is the Secret Service.
- robertsdionne 2y agoI think I hear in this video: https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1812251693888975359 https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1812251693888975359 "Take a look at what happened", then three initial shots, "Get down! Get down! Get down!", followed by four rapid shots, all likely from the shooter. Trump ducks after the third initial shot. They sound like "crack---boom" where the "crack" is the bullet passing the microphone and the "boom" is the gunfire arriving later due to speed of sound at distance from the shooter. Immediately after, there is a three-round burst of automatic fire, then several seconds later there is a single silenced shot ("kill confirmed") all likely secret service. I'd have to look at the audio waveform to distinguish whether the four rapid shots were the same shooter or return fire from secret service. Edit: After watching this: https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1812327502028669328 https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1812327502028669328 It seems like the first 3 and then next 5 (not 4) shots were from the shooter, and there was a single sniper shot returned by secret service immediately after (some echo made it sound like a 3 round burst in the first video), with the final follow up confirmation shot several seconds later.
- mynameishere 2y ago[flagged]
- swader999 2y agoQuite a historic picture of him with bloody face, flag above secret service surrounding him with his fist in the air.
- steadfastbeef 2y ago[flagged]