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I think common sense filters are what prevents accurate predictions of black swan events. Like AI singularity or COVID outbreak. People who usually are capable
by Davidzheng 2y ago
I think common sense filters are what prevents accurate predictions of black swan events. Like AI singularity or COVID outbreak. People who usually are capable of reasoning get to a conclusion--e.g AI doom and then dismiss it out of hand by things like it's more likely the logic is flawed bc the prior is so low. But if you're confident in your reasoning--sometimes you have to accept that extremely low prior things can happen
- ImHereToVote 2y agoLook, judging things by how they feel has gotten me this far. Why change now?
- fragmede 2y agoIt's gone 100% perfectly and you've never ever had a shower thought where you second guessed yourself?
- mistermann 2y agoThe pursuit of optimality would be one possible reason. Judging things by how they feel is a big part of what brought climate change to our door.