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> They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely de

> They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and minor, and therefore entirely Russian-serving. Chinese hacking is mostly tech espionage and one millionth of the Russian amount. The Taiwan crisis is also intrinsically petty. China basically wants to take it over because the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek was never really settled. It's a bit like the geopolitical version of "but her emails," like the Turkish/Armenian animus without the genocide event. > We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. The Russians have updated the dictatorial model for the 21st century, making uprisings a thing of the past. There's no group or category left whose getting fed up makes a difference. In extreme cases, the experience in Syria and Venezuela is that beating down hard on the population improves the dictatorial position (like in WW2) instead of weakening it (like in Britain's American colonies.) Plotting a coup is hard to impossible too. It just requires so many cogwheels that it gets caught by surveillance before it hatches. Putin has also updated what it means to take over a country. His first preference was a vassalized Ukraine with Yanukovich, i.e. conquest by any other name. Countries like Hungary are one Big Lie-like claim away from having their elections Rwanda-ized. The Ukraine treatment is a last resort for countries who just plain refuse vassalization.

jfengel 2y ago
Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Dictators tend to leave a succession crisis, though I doubt there's some real democracy impending. Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. China and the US are pushing each other economically. It's kinda ugly but it's not killing anyone, and a lot of people are getting employed out of it. Russia could play that same game, and they've got the resources and brain power to get rich. Instead they are trying to win by dragging everyone else down. And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. Not that the US is any great shakes on the moral high road but that part is genuinely killing people.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  > Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Crystal ball says a guy with a full head of hair. [1] > Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. The ambition that selects dictators has no bounds. Once they conquer everything at home, abroad is all that's left. It's never enough. Caesar visited Alexander's tomb and lamented taking 20 years longer to conquer the world. [2] Maybe Russians are so used to it that they yield the home base ASAP and let the rest of the planet take the brunt. Kind of an inside-out, downhill version of the supply line stretch tactic against Napoleon and Hitler. > And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. I think it's the other way around, Russia is egging us on against China. A certain Russophile started a tariff war, which I promise you the Chinese are not crazy about. About 15 minutes after Covid hit, Putin's proxies were flooding Twitter trying to get the "China flu" nickname to stick. Globalization is basically a gravity well with "everyone playing nice" at the bottom. This was the theory behind granting China MFN status in the 90s. What people seem to miss is that it largely worked. Russia restructured its economy for war. China is restructuring its economy for... clean energy. They never got to Western-style democracy, true. But aside from policy speeches, we didn't really push for it much. They have a mechanism for selecting leaders. We could have lobbied for a tweak here, an allowing of dissent there. Over a decade or two they could have surpassed every shitty Gulf kingdom. They still could. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald–hairy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald–hairy [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvx3Btbibb8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvx3Btbibb8

jfengel 2y ago

Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Dictators tend to leave a succession crisis, though I doubt there's some real democracy impending. Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. China and the US are pushing each other economically. It's kinda ugly but it's not killing anyone, and a lot of people are getting employed out of it. Russia could play that same game, and they've got the resources and brain power to get rich. Instead they are trying to win by dragging everyone else down. And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. Not that the US is any great shakes on the moral high road but that part is genuinely killing people.

worstspotgain 2y ago
> Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Crystal ball says a guy with a full head of hair. [1] > Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. The ambition that selects dictators has no bounds. Once they conquer everything at home, abroad is all that's left. It's never enough. Caesar visited Alexander's tomb and lamented taking 20 years longer to conquer the world. [2] Maybe Russians are so used to it that they yield the home base ASAP and let the rest of the planet take the brunt. Kind of an inside-out, downhill version of the supply line stretch tactic against Napoleon and Hitler. > And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. I think it's the other way around, Russia is egging us on against China. A certain Russophile started a tariff war, which I promise you the Chinese are not crazy about. About 15 minutes after Covid hit, Putin's proxies were flooding Twitter trying to get the "China flu" nickname to stick. Globalization is basically a gravity well with "everyone playing nice" at the bottom. This was the theory behind granting China MFN status in the 90s. What people seem to miss is that it largely worked. Russia restructured its economy for war. China is restructuring its economy for... clean energy. They never got to Western-style democracy, true. But aside from policy speeches, we didn't really push for it much. They have a mechanism for selecting leaders. We could have lobbied for a tweak here, an allowing of dissent there. Over a decade or two they could have surpassed every shitty Gulf kingdom. They still could. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald–hairy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald–hairy [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvx3Btbibb8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvx3Btbibb8