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I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prev

I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prevail. I would like to add: - The Russians and Chinese are not natural allies (historically quite the contrary.) - The only belligerence the Chinese have shown is on Taiwan and the South China Sea. On a pound-for-pound basis, they've been throwing their weight around a lot less than, say, older Western powers like France and the UK. - By contrast, the Russians are on a world-domination war path, acting like Ivan the Terrible is still alive and the middle ages never ended. The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. There's just not enough BRICS to buy their current exports. It also means a massive drop of GDP. The key here is that the Russians cannot lock in the Chinese without our help. So every time you hear someone bashing China in the West, keep in mind that driving a wedge between the West and China only really helps Russia. I'm no fan of the CCP, but we've been allies with way worse governments, such as Saudi Arabia.

jfengel 2y ago
The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. I'm not following this point. They don't need the Chinese to completely align with Russia. They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. The Chinese seem content to engage in the usual economic jockeying with the US, while antagonizing the US in a variety of ways (supporting Russia, menacing Taiwan, trolling, hacking, etc.) The wedge is there, and I don't an alliance with China is happening any time soon. Certainly not in time to help Ukraine. We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. I can't see the US and China as allies, but I can see us as less acrimonious rivals. Unless the US decides to go all in with its isolationism, which seems entirely possible. In which case all bets are off.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  > They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and minor, and therefore entirely Russian-serving. Chinese hacking is mostly tech espionage and one millionth of the Russian amount. The Taiwan crisis is also intrinsically petty. China basically wants to take it over because the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek was never really settled. It's a bit like the geopolitical version of "but her emails," like the Turkish/Armenian animus without the genocide event. > We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. The Russians have updated the dictatorial model for the 21st century, making uprisings a thing of the past. There's no group or category left whose getting fed up makes a difference. In extreme cases, the experience in Syria and Venezuela is that beating down hard on the population improves the dictatorial position (like in WW2) instead of weakening it (like in Britain's American colonies.) Plotting a coup is hard to impossible too. It just requires so many cogwheels that it gets caught by surveillance before it hatches. Putin has also updated what it means to take over a country. His first preference was a vassalized Ukraine with Yanukovich, i.e. conquest by any other name. Countries like Hungary are one Big Lie-like claim away from having their elections Rwanda-ized. The Ukraine treatment is a last resort for countries who just plain refuse vassalization.
  - jfengel 2y ago
    Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Dictators tend to leave a succession crisis, though I doubt there's some real democracy impending. Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. China and the US are pushing each other economically. It's kinda ugly but it's not killing anyone, and a lot of people are getting employed out of it. Russia could play that same game, and they've got the resources and brain power to get rich. Instead they are trying to win by dragging everyone else down. And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. Not that the US is any great shakes on the moral high road but that part is genuinely killing people.
aiauthoritydev 2y ago
I agree with you. The problem with China is that its internal processes are aligned to be self destructive. I am from India and I understand Indian politicians and ruling class which has deep fetish for Russia and CCP. But Indian public likes American phones and youtube. So despite all the political moves, India remains mostly west aligned. CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its people or even national interests as long as it can stay in power. Stephen Kotkin on Hoover institution explains this better than I would.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  > CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its people or even national interests as long as it can stay in power. Absolutely. Democracy is ideal against tyranny, corruption and mismanagement. As you said, it has kept the Indian government relatively in check, in spite of India's history of Soviet alignment. Russia has long sought to exploit democracy's structural weaknesses by corrupting foreign politicians and journalists. Their attempt to incite a race war in the US, for instance, dates back to the early 20th century. One can argue it never ceased. This century, the efforts became massively more effective with their new cyber capabilities. Even when they can't get an outright puppet elected, they can still put their finger on the scale. At a minimum, they're the new kingmakers. The CCP is insulated from this. Almost paradoxically, this means it can listen to any deals we propose without worrying about blowback from Putin's local political proxies. Unfortunately, Putin's proxies here are the reason we're not proposing any such deals.

jfengel 2y ago

The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. I'm not following this point. They don't need the Chinese to completely align with Russia. They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. The Chinese seem content to engage in the usual economic jockeying with the US, while antagonizing the US in a variety of ways (supporting Russia, menacing Taiwan, trolling, hacking, etc.) The wedge is there, and I don't an alliance with China is happening any time soon. Certainly not in time to help Ukraine. We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. I can't see the US and China as allies, but I can see us as less acrimonious rivals. Unless the US decides to go all in with its isolationism, which seems entirely possible. In which case all bets are off.

worstspotgain 2y ago
> They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and minor, and therefore entirely Russian-serving. Chinese hacking is mostly tech espionage and one millionth of the Russian amount. The Taiwan crisis is also intrinsically petty. China basically wants to take it over because the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek was never really settled. It's a bit like the geopolitical version of "but her emails," like the Turkish/Armenian animus without the genocide event. > We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. The Russians have updated the dictatorial model for the 21st century, making uprisings a thing of the past. There's no group or category left whose getting fed up makes a difference. In extreme cases, the experience in Syria and Venezuela is that beating down hard on the population improves the dictatorial position (like in WW2) instead of weakening it (like in Britain's American colonies.) Plotting a coup is hard to impossible too. It just requires so many cogwheels that it gets caught by surveillance before it hatches. Putin has also updated what it means to take over a country. His first preference was a vassalized Ukraine with Yanukovich, i.e. conquest by any other name. Countries like Hungary are one Big Lie-like claim away from having their elections Rwanda-ized. The Ukraine treatment is a last resort for countries who just plain refuse vassalization.
- jfengel 2y ago
  Eventually Putin will die. I have absolutely no idea what follows. Dictators tend to leave a succession crisis, though I doubt there's some real democracy impending. Russian culture genuinely seems to want a strongman in charge. It's just so damn aggravating because it's making their country poor. China and the US are pushing each other economically. It's kinda ugly but it's not killing anyone, and a lot of people are getting employed out of it. Russia could play that same game, and they've got the resources and brain power to get rich. Instead they are trying to win by dragging everyone else down. And I really hate that China knows it gets a leg up on the US by egging them on. Not that the US is any great shakes on the moral high road but that part is genuinely killing people.

aiauthoritydev 2y ago

I agree with you. The problem with China is that its internal processes are aligned to be self destructive. I am from India and I understand Indian politicians and ruling class which has deep fetish for Russia and CCP. But Indian public likes American phones and youtube. So despite all the political moves, India remains mostly west aligned. CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its people or even national interests as long as it can stay in power. Stephen Kotkin on Hoover institution explains this better than I would.

worstspotgain 2y ago
> CCP is immune from such things. It does not have to give much damn about its people or even national interests as long as it can stay in power. Absolutely. Democracy is ideal against tyranny, corruption and mismanagement. As you said, it has kept the Indian government relatively in check, in spite of India's history of Soviet alignment. Russia has long sought to exploit democracy's structural weaknesses by corrupting foreign politicians and journalists. Their attempt to incite a race war in the US, for instance, dates back to the early 20th century. One can argue it never ceased. This century, the efforts became massively more effective with their new cyber capabilities. Even when they can't get an outright puppet elected, they can still put their finger on the scale. At a minimum, they're the new kingmakers. The CCP is insulated from this. Almost paradoxically, this means it can listen to any deals we propose without worrying about blowback from Putin's local political proxies. Unfortunately, Putin's proxies here are the reason we're not proposing any such deals.