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At the core of the Russia-Ukraine war there is something that we should all be somewhat concerned about. It is clear that USA remains an economic, cultural, mo

At the core of the Russia-Ukraine war there is something that we should all be somewhat concerned about. It is clear that USA remains an economic, cultural, moral and even spiritual powerhouse as other civilizations go through all sort of turbulence. By virtue of this, other "western" value nations like EU nations, Japan, Australia, South Korea etc. are doing well and likely to do well and benefit. Together we beat covid, invented magic pills for obesity, moved towards cheaper and better energy sources and kept our institutions strong. Even the Islamic and north african immigrants did not cause any collapse that our enemies planned for us. People around the world continue to line up to immigrate to west legally or illegally. It is a huge success for us. Now, we have AI. With few more gains this can transform our economy and way of life like nothing else. I see Russia, China, India and Arab world feel depressed about this that there is nothing they can do about this. They will not be able to catch up with us ever. They take pride in being "thousand year old civilization" but they are being outfoxxed by bunch of cowboys and LGBTQ folks at every step Russia-Ukraine war or Chinese war on Taiwan is not just a local war but rather an act of desperation from these states due to the realization that their culture and society is a loser culture and society. I expect this sort of assassination attempts to be on rise now.

nathanaldensr 2y ago
I agree with your second and third paragraphs, but I encourage you to realize that AI does not exist--not in the form you're implying by predicting transformative technology. AI has not made a meaningful impact in nearly anyone's lives, let alone a transformative impact; instead, it's just the latest VC money sink, hype train, bubble, or whatever you want to call it. The West is a great place to live not because of AI but because of consistency of experience (e.g., first-world infrastructure for the most part) and higher quality of life, "AI" or no AI.
dralley 2y ago
This is total nonsense. Putin does not care about AI, by all accounts he doesn't even use technology much personally, he cares about being remembered as a Peter the Great figure who restored Russia to their rightful place as a superpower. It's just bog-standard nationalism of a kind we've seen dozens of times before.
- slavaukro123777 2y ago
  [flagged]
- aiauthoritydev 2y ago
  You and I are saying the same thing. China does not need to attack India or Taiwan right now to prove that its a superpower because it already is. It is consulted on all major issues and the world engaged with them with respect because they have earned it. China hopes that it will be more powerful in future and hence they are measured in their approach. Russia is lost. There is nothing else Putin could do to make Russia more relevant on world stage. Russia is staring at slow decline of its human capital which will settle in west. Its former colonies like Ukraine or Poland would love to be part of EU/NATO etc. This is why Putin needs a war to appear great. At its core it is about western world's victory on the world state. After war he will assassinate your innovators and business leaders.
worstspotgain 2y ago
I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prevail. I would like to add: - The Russians and Chinese are not natural allies (historically quite the contrary.) - The only belligerence the Chinese have shown is on Taiwan and the South China Sea. On a pound-for-pound basis, they've been throwing their weight around a lot less than, say, older Western powers like France and the UK. - By contrast, the Russians are on a world-domination war path, acting like Ivan the Terrible is still alive and the middle ages never ended. The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. There's just not enough BRICS to buy their current exports. It also means a massive drop of GDP. The key here is that the Russians cannot lock in the Chinese without our help. So every time you hear someone bashing China in the West, keep in mind that driving a wedge between the West and China only really helps Russia. I'm no fan of the CCP, but we've been allies with way worse governments, such as Saudi Arabia.
- jfengel 2y ago
  The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. I'm not following this point. They don't need the Chinese to completely align with Russia. They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. The Chinese seem content to engage in the usual economic jockeying with the US, while antagonizing the US in a variety of ways (supporting Russia, menacing Taiwan, trolling, hacking, etc.) The wedge is there, and I don't an alliance with China is happening any time soon. Certainly not in time to help Ukraine. We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. I can't see the US and China as allies, but I can see us as less acrimonious rivals. Unless the US decides to go all in with its isolationism, which seems entirely possible. In which case all bets are off.
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    > They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and minor, and therefore entirely Russian-serving. Chinese hacking is mostly tech espionage and one millionth of the Russian amount. The Taiwan crisis is also intrinsically petty. China basically wants to take it over because the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek was never really settled. It's a bit like the geopolitical version of "but her emails," like the Turkish/Armenian animus without the genocide event. > We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. The Russians have updated the dictatorial model for the 21st century, making uprisings a thing of the past. There's no group or category left whose getting fed up makes a difference. In extreme cases, the experience in Syria and Venezuela is that beating down hard on the population improves the dictatorial position (like in WW2) instead of weakening it (like in Britain's American colonies.) Plotting a coup is hard to impossible too. It just requires so many cogwheels that it gets caught by surveillance before it hatches. Putin has also updated what it means to take over a country. His first preference was a vassalized Ukraine with Yanukovich, i.e. conquest by any other name. Countries like Hungary are one Big Lie-like claim away from having their elections Rwanda-ized. The Ukraine treatment is a last resort for countries who just plain refuse vassalization.
t0bia_s 2y ago
- Together we beat covid, invented magic pills for obesity, moved towards cheaper and better energy sources and kept our institutions strong. Covid is beaten by our immune system. Since covid we have also rising overall mortality and total distrust in science, media and governments. Obesity in wealthy countries, while millions starving in developing countries, treated by magic pills? Energy prices are much more expensive than ever, many times more then in states with totalitarian regimes. Institutions monetise everything they possibly could. - People around the world continue to line up to immigrate to west legally or illegally. It is a huge success for us. Have you been in UK, France on Germany recently? -I see Russia, China, India and Arab world feel depressed about this that there is nothing they can do about this. They will not be able to catch up with us ever. They take pride in being "thousand year old civilization" but they are being outfoxxed by bunch of cowboys and LGBTQ folks at every step Depression in youth in wealthy countries rise since social media consumption started. We have highest suicide attempts than ever. Also, EU fertility rate per woman is 1.4, in US 1.6. You don't need to be skilled in math to know that wealthy west is dying. I'm not sure, if your post is serious or not.
- aiauthoritydev 2y ago
  West throughout last 200 years or so has been better than rest of the world and yet deeply unhappy about it self. So my claim is not that it is Utopia but it is vastly better than rest of the world and continues to get better with the gap widening. At this point, other than China, non western countries have nothing meaningful to offer to the world other than natural resources and basic labor. Even the best parts of the other parts such as Yoga, Vedanta of India is better in west in the land where it originated.
  - t0bia_s 2y ago
    West is loosing a meaning. If you replace spirituality with consumerism and relationships with individuslism, what would you expect?

nathanaldensr 2y ago

I agree with your second and third paragraphs, but I encourage you to realize that AI does not exist--not in the form you're implying by predicting transformative technology. AI has not made a meaningful impact in nearly anyone's lives, let alone a transformative impact; instead, it's just the latest VC money sink, hype train, bubble, or whatever you want to call it. The West is a great place to live not because of AI but because of consistency of experience (e.g., first-world infrastructure for the most part) and higher quality of life, "AI" or no AI.

dralley 2y ago

This is total nonsense. Putin does not care about AI, by all accounts he doesn't even use technology much personally, he cares about being remembered as a Peter the Great figure who restored Russia to their rightful place as a superpower. It's just bog-standard nationalism of a kind we've seen dozens of times before.

slavaukro123777 2y ago
[flagged]
aiauthoritydev 2y ago
You and I are saying the same thing. China does not need to attack India or Taiwan right now to prove that its a superpower because it already is. It is consulted on all major issues and the world engaged with them with respect because they have earned it. China hopes that it will be more powerful in future and hence they are measured in their approach. Russia is lost. There is nothing else Putin could do to make Russia more relevant on world stage. Russia is staring at slow decline of its human capital which will settle in west. Its former colonies like Ukraine or Poland would love to be part of EU/NATO etc. This is why Putin needs a war to appear great. At its core it is about western world's victory on the world state. After war he will assassinate your innovators and business leaders.

worstspotgain 2y ago

I generally agree with your analysis. You describe the tall order for the Russians or Chinese to take on the Western-led world order and economic might and prevail. I would like to add: - The Russians and Chinese are not natural allies (historically quite the contrary.) - The only belligerence the Chinese have shown is on Taiwan and the South China Sea. On a pound-for-pound basis, they've been throwing their weight around a lot less than, say, older Western powers like France and the UK. - By contrast, the Russians are on a world-domination war path, acting like Ivan the Terrible is still alive and the middle ages never ended. The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. There's just not enough BRICS to buy their current exports. It also means a massive drop of GDP. The key here is that the Russians cannot lock in the Chinese without our help. So every time you hear someone bashing China in the West, keep in mind that driving a wedge between the West and China only really helps Russia. I'm no fan of the CCP, but we've been allies with way worse governments, such as Saudi Arabia.

jfengel 2y ago
The only way the Russians can hope to win is by locking the Chinese into their camp. This in turn requires the Chinese to completely turn their economy inward. I'm not following this point. They don't need the Chinese to completely align with Russia. They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. The Chinese seem content to engage in the usual economic jockeying with the US, while antagonizing the US in a variety of ways (supporting Russia, menacing Taiwan, trolling, hacking, etc.) The wedge is there, and I don't an alliance with China is happening any time soon. Certainly not in time to help Ukraine. We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. I can't see the US and China as allies, but I can see us as less acrimonious rivals. Unless the US decides to go all in with its isolationism, which seems entirely possible. In which case all bets are off.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  > They just need the Chinese to provide enough of a way around sanctions that they can continue the war. I agree with most everything you wrote. You closely describe the situation in 2024, while my argument is longer-term and presumes that the Russian goal is world domination in the Roman Empire sense. That's what Sweden and Finland smelled when they joined NATO. At that scale, our squabbles with China seem petty and minor, and therefore entirely Russian-serving. Chinese hacking is mostly tech espionage and one millionth of the Russian amount. The Taiwan crisis is also intrinsically petty. China basically wants to take it over because the drunken bar fight with Chiang Kai-shek was never really settled. It's a bit like the geopolitical version of "but her emails," like the Turkish/Armenian animus without the genocide event. > We can position ourselves better for a less-awful world order if Ukraine can survive long enough that Russians get fed up with Putinism. The Russians have updated the dictatorial model for the 21st century, making uprisings a thing of the past. There's no group or category left whose getting fed up makes a difference. In extreme cases, the experience in Syria and Venezuela is that beating down hard on the population improves the dictatorial position (like in WW2) instead of weakening it (like in Britain's American colonies.) Plotting a coup is hard to impossible too. It just requires so many cogwheels that it gets caught by surveillance before it hatches. Putin has also updated what it means to take over a country. His first preference was a vassalized Ukraine with Yanukovich, i.e. conquest by any other name. Countries like Hungary are one Big Lie-like claim away from having their elections Rwanda-ized. The Ukraine treatment is a last resort for countries who just plain refuse vassalization.

t0bia_s 2y ago

- Together we beat covid, invented magic pills for obesity, moved towards cheaper and better energy sources and kept our institutions strong. Covid is beaten by our immune system. Since covid we have also rising overall mortality and total distrust in science, media and governments. Obesity in wealthy countries, while millions starving in developing countries, treated by magic pills? Energy prices are much more expensive than ever, many times more then in states with totalitarian regimes. Institutions monetise everything they possibly could. - People around the world continue to line up to immigrate to west legally or illegally. It is a huge success for us. Have you been in UK, France on Germany recently? -I see Russia, China, India and Arab world feel depressed about this that there is nothing they can do about this. They will not be able to catch up with us ever. They take pride in being "thousand year old civilization" but they are being outfoxxed by bunch of cowboys and LGBTQ folks at every step Depression in youth in wealthy countries rise since social media consumption started. We have highest suicide attempts than ever. Also, EU fertility rate per woman is 1.4, in US 1.6. You don't need to be skilled in math to know that wealthy west is dying. I'm not sure, if your post is serious or not.

aiauthoritydev 2y ago
West throughout last 200 years or so has been better than rest of the world and yet deeply unhappy about it self. So my claim is not that it is Utopia but it is vastly better than rest of the world and continues to get better with the gap widening. At this point, other than China, non western countries have nothing meaningful to offer to the world other than natural resources and basic labor. Even the best parts of the other parts such as Yoga, Vedanta of India is better in west in the land where it originated.
- t0bia_s 2y ago
  West is loosing a meaning. If you replace spirituality with consumerism and relationships with individuslism, what would you expect?