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I don't think that's correct at all. It will help a lot, specifically because it's not a zero sum game of just swapping Chinese based manufactured goods out for

I don't think that's correct at all. It will help a lot, specifically because it's not a zero sum game of just swapping Chinese based manufactured goods out for robot based goods. The US would stop sending that capital to China (a huge wealth drain), which is helping build out their economy. The US would gain wealth and capital incentives for further robotic development. The US would gain jobs around robotics in all forms. Profitable manufacturing would need and pay for energy, buildings, transportation, and on and on. Profitable manufacturing would also pay taxes, keeping more teachers etc. employed and bolstering the weak US tax base. Workers would be needed to create buildings, build roads and transmission lines, repair robots, scrap robots, replace robots, R&D robot tech, provide materials, and so on. It would cultivate a huge ecosystem.

ern 14y ago
Workers would be needed to create buildings, build roads and transmission lines, repair robots, scrap robots, replace robots, R&D robot tech, provide materials, and so on. It would cultivate a huge ecosystem. Wouldn't robots eventually move into those fields as well?
- adventureful 14y ago
  Are we talking 100 years out? Because you'll still need engineers to decide where to put a building, what it should look like based on financial restrictions (a robot reading your bank account to decide how much building you can afford?) and future demand projections. The robots aren't doing the financial decision making in the next 35 to 50 years. Assisted analysis (software), sure. A robot isn't going to understand civil codes when it comes to laying down power lines (humans barely understand the civil codes). A human would be required to follow such guidelines and then could perhaps instruct a robot toward the actual labor. Maybe one day in a very far off future civil laws will be understood by robots, but I'm betting that's not going to be very high on the list of things to get around to automating. It would also likely require extremely advanced AI, because the robot might have to negotiate civil code conflicts based on decisions made (and this just seems far beyond the next few decades). Who takes responsibility for a robot failing to navigate zoning laws properly?
  - ippisl 14y ago
    Were not that far from mostly automated architectural design. This is from an article(in 2005) about an automated system to design custom metal buildings[1]: "The automated engineering done with the EDS, which is still being extended, is close to 98% complete for the simplest buildings and 50-60% complete for the most complex buildings. The tasks that are remaining are not automated, as they are either highly custom, or occur so seldom that the added knowledge capture for these few occurrences does not justify the automation cost." There's also a similar tool for design of private construction[2].I think the software even understand civil codes. [1]http://www.aecbytes.com/buildingthefuture/2005/RCCstudy.html http://www.aecbytes.com/buildingthefuture/2005/RCCstudy.html [2]http://www.aecbytes.com/feature/2005/Norway_prefab.html http://www.aecbytes.com/feature/2005/Norway_prefab.html
ippisl 14y ago
One problem with this path of investing in robotic technologies, is that even if some jobs are created in the u.s., you help improve the technology so that many other jobs are becoming unnecessary. It's hard to tell in advance if this will bring more jobs to low/medium skilled people , which are the ones mostly struggling, or destroy their jobs.

ern 14y ago

Workers would be needed to create buildings, build roads and transmission lines, repair robots, scrap robots, replace robots, R&D robot tech, provide materials, and so on. It would cultivate a huge ecosystem. Wouldn't robots eventually move into those fields as well?

adventureful 14y ago
Are we talking 100 years out? Because you'll still need engineers to decide where to put a building, what it should look like based on financial restrictions (a robot reading your bank account to decide how much building you can afford?) and future demand projections. The robots aren't doing the financial decision making in the next 35 to 50 years. Assisted analysis (software), sure. A robot isn't going to understand civil codes when it comes to laying down power lines (humans barely understand the civil codes). A human would be required to follow such guidelines and then could perhaps instruct a robot toward the actual labor. Maybe one day in a very far off future civil laws will be understood by robots, but I'm betting that's not going to be very high on the list of things to get around to automating. It would also likely require extremely advanced AI, because the robot might have to negotiate civil code conflicts based on decisions made (and this just seems far beyond the next few decades). Who takes responsibility for a robot failing to navigate zoning laws properly?
- ippisl 14y ago
  Were not that far from mostly automated architectural design. This is from an article(in 2005) about an automated system to design custom metal buildings[1]: "The automated engineering done with the EDS, which is still being extended, is close to 98% complete for the simplest buildings and 50-60% complete for the most complex buildings. The tasks that are remaining are not automated, as they are either highly custom, or occur so seldom that the added knowledge capture for these few occurrences does not justify the automation cost." There's also a similar tool for design of private construction[2].I think the software even understand civil codes. [1]http://www.aecbytes.com/buildingthefuture/2005/RCCstudy.html http://www.aecbytes.com/buildingthefuture/2005/RCCstudy.html [2]http://www.aecbytes.com/feature/2005/Norway_prefab.html http://www.aecbytes.com/feature/2005/Norway_prefab.html

ippisl 14y ago

One problem with this path of investing in robotic technologies, is that even if some jobs are created in the u.s., you help improve the technology so that many other jobs are becoming unnecessary. It's hard to tell in advance if this will bring more jobs to low/medium skilled people , which are the ones mostly struggling, or destroy their jobs.