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It looks to me like China will move from using cheap labour to cheap electricity from renewables for its manufacturing a lot faster than the rest of the world c

It looks to me like China will move from using cheap labour to cheap electricity from renewables for its manufacturing a lot faster than the rest of the world can keep up.

numpad0 2y ago
Everyone had always been moving towards such direction at least since days of Charlie Chaplin... It's just that marketing automatically produced goods had always been strangely hard.
Ekaros 2y ago
Whatever you say about value of software. You still need to build machines and all the parts it runs on. Not to forget all parts of the building it runs on and all parts of the networks it connects to and everything to power it... Capability to manufacture full hardware stack is critical. China might not be top at the silicon chips, but they have extreme competence for below that.
lossolo 2y ago
This. I wonder why people say India will be the next China, as if they are still living in the past. The future is about cheap energy powering robots, not cheap labor. The era of growth based solely on cheap labor is slowly ending with robotization.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  India, too, has solar radiation and wind. China does not have a monopoly on the ability to invest in renewables. It is doing an outstanding job of doing that, but if India wakes up, India can do it, too. At the end of the day - few countries have better solar radiation than India: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/solar-photovoltaic-power-potential-by-country https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/solar-... That's going to matter more than your ability to produce panels slightly cheaper.
  - kkzz99 2y ago
    The difference is that China has the complete chain, from the raw materials, processing of said materials, manufacturing, integration, maintenance. They have the IP and know-how. India may have the land and the sun, but it lacks the hard parts.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
      The solar radiation profile is more important than the panel. India can just buy the panels from China and be in nearly the same position, because India has a much better solar profile. If Greenland was a solar panel production powerhouse, they would never be able to compete with someone like India for solar energy generation... China has a decent profile, but India's is significantly better.
      - kkzz99 2y ago
        >India can just buy the panels from China and be in nearly the same position. Can it though? This will be impossible because of Indian domestic politics. You will also never get the same benefits by buying as in producing them yourself.
  - lossolo 2y ago
    China's installed solar power capacity rises 55.2% in 2023.[1] It added 216 GW of solar PV capacity alone in 2023 that was equal to 14% of the world's total installed solar PV capacity, more than what many countries have ever installed in total. India added 7.5 GW of solar in CY 2023, a 44.1% drop from 13.4 GW installed in CY 2022. So India 7.5GW vs China 216 GW. "China is already the largest industrial robot market in the world. It accounted for 52 percent of robot installations worldwide in 2022" [2][3] I don't see how they can compete in renewables or robots. Catching up to China will be extremely difficult. 1. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-solar-power-capacity-rises-552-2023-2024-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-sol... 2. https://itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-china-in-the-robotics-industry/ https://itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-c... 3. https://orcasia.org/article/562/chinas-robot-revolution https://orcasia.org/article/562/chinas-robot-revolution
ljf 2y ago
Totally this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40935688 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40935688 - China's clean energy pushes coal to record-low 53% share of power in May 2024 That clean energy is even cheaper than their already cheap coal powered power stations - they are going to go even further eating our manufacturing breakfast.
ur-whale 2y ago
> a lot faster than the rest of the world can keep up. Not like they have much choice given where their demography is going.

It looks to me like China will move from using cheap labour to cheap electricity from renewables for its manufacturing a lot faster than the rest of the world can keep up.

numpad0 2y ago

Everyone had always been moving towards such direction at least since days of Charlie Chaplin... It's just that marketing automatically produced goods had always been strangely hard.

Ekaros 2y ago

Whatever you say about value of software. You still need to build machines and all the parts it runs on. Not to forget all parts of the building it runs on and all parts of the networks it connects to and everything to power it... Capability to manufacture full hardware stack is critical. China might not be top at the silicon chips, but they have extreme competence for below that.

lossolo 2y ago

This. I wonder why people say India will be the next China, as if they are still living in the past. The future is about cheap energy powering robots, not cheap labor. The era of growth based solely on cheap labor is slowly ending with robotization.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
India, too, has solar radiation and wind. China does not have a monopoly on the ability to invest in renewables. It is doing an outstanding job of doing that, but if India wakes up, India can do it, too. At the end of the day - few countries have better solar radiation than India: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/solar-photovoltaic-power-potential-by-country https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/solar-... That's going to matter more than your ability to produce panels slightly cheaper.
- kkzz99 2y ago
  The difference is that China has the complete chain, from the raw materials, processing of said materials, manufacturing, integration, maintenance. They have the IP and know-how. India may have the land and the sun, but it lacks the hard parts.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    The solar radiation profile is more important than the panel. India can just buy the panels from China and be in nearly the same position, because India has a much better solar profile. If Greenland was a solar panel production powerhouse, they would never be able to compete with someone like India for solar energy generation... China has a decent profile, but India's is significantly better.
    - kkzz99 2y ago
      >India can just buy the panels from China and be in nearly the same position. Can it though? This will be impossible because of Indian domestic politics. You will also never get the same benefits by buying as in producing them yourself.
- lossolo 2y ago
  China's installed solar power capacity rises 55.2% in 2023.[1] It added 216 GW of solar PV capacity alone in 2023 that was equal to 14% of the world's total installed solar PV capacity, more than what many countries have ever installed in total. India added 7.5 GW of solar in CY 2023, a 44.1% drop from 13.4 GW installed in CY 2022. So India 7.5GW vs China 216 GW. "China is already the largest industrial robot market in the world. It accounted for 52 percent of robot installations worldwide in 2022" [2][3] I don't see how they can compete in renewables or robots. Catching up to China will be extremely difficult. 1. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-solar-power-capacity-rises-552-2023-2024-01-26/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-sol... 2. https://itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-china-in-the-robotics-industry/ https://itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-c... 3. https://orcasia.org/article/562/chinas-robot-revolution https://orcasia.org/article/562/chinas-robot-revolution

ljf 2y ago

Totally this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40935688 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40935688 - China's clean energy pushes coal to record-low 53% share of power in May 2024 That clean energy is even cheaper than their already cheap coal powered power stations - they are going to go even further eating our manufacturing breakfast.

ur-whale 2y ago

> a lot faster than the rest of the world can keep up. Not like they have much choice given where their demography is going.