3 ms·

I have always wondered how this would perform. The caveat in my mind has been that there is a (significant?) lag between when the trade is made, and when it mus

I have always wondered how this would perform. The caveat in my mind has been that there is a (significant?) lag between when the trade is made, and when it must be reported. If there is a strong buy/sell signal, I have assumed it would be cold by the time I had access to that information. Also thought a limitation of the STOCK act was that partners (?) did not have to report their data, so a savvy representative could hide their trades through direct family. It would be fun to compare the two parties portfolios. Are there ideological companies which are helping/hurting the overall performance? One group is better at timing?

MOARDONGZPLZ 2y ago
There can be a lag, but not always. Sometimes it’s just a day or so between trade and reporting. Seems like one way to derisk would be to evaluate the time between trade and reporting plus whether anything significant has happened in that timeframe. For example, Senator buys a stock, stock jumps and plateaus a week later, buy is reported a month later would mean don’t add this to ETF.
- twothreeone 2y ago
  I thought they have 60 days to report trades [1] and there are a bunch of stock-based investments that explicitly don't require reporting (EIF's)? Sure, if somebody decides to voluntarily file on day 1, or buy stock "raw" that's cool, but in general there should be quite significant lag or gaps (to the point where short/medium-term there's no signal basically). [1] https://ethics.house.gov/sites/ethics.house.gov/files/documents/FDInstructionGuide_current.pdf https://ethics.house.gov/sites/ethics.house.gov/files/docume...
  - MOARDONGZPLZ 2y ago
    You’re right that 60 is the limit, but many people file them much sooner.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
  That layers on a lot of complexity onto the idea of “mimic Congress stock trades”. Now I have to decide if their hot tip hit or not. Was it a long term play? Does the committee decision get published in five weeks, so they wanted to move now? I am sure there is signal worth exploiting, but an index fund still seems the more appropriate strategy without significant development on how to follow their moves.

MOARDONGZPLZ 2y ago

There can be a lag, but not always. Sometimes it’s just a day or so between trade and reporting. Seems like one way to derisk would be to evaluate the time between trade and reporting plus whether anything significant has happened in that timeframe. For example, Senator buys a stock, stock jumps and plateaus a week later, buy is reported a month later would mean don’t add this to ETF.

twothreeone 2y ago
I thought they have 60 days to report trades [1] and there are a bunch of stock-based investments that explicitly don't require reporting (EIF's)? Sure, if somebody decides to voluntarily file on day 1, or buy stock "raw" that's cool, but in general there should be quite significant lag or gaps (to the point where short/medium-term there's no signal basically). [1] https://ethics.house.gov/sites/ethics.house.gov/files/documents/FDInstructionGuide_current.pdf https://ethics.house.gov/sites/ethics.house.gov/files/docume...
- MOARDONGZPLZ 2y ago
  You’re right that 60 is the limit, but many people file them much sooner.
0cf8612b2e1e 2y ago
That layers on a lot of complexity onto the idea of “mimic Congress stock trades”. Now I have to decide if their hot tip hit or not. Was it a long term play? Does the committee decision get published in five weeks, so they wanted to move now? I am sure there is signal worth exploiting, but an index fund still seems the more appropriate strategy without significant development on how to follow their moves.