You are further demonstrating how the cloudy semantics of the question and of casual semi-mathematical English language makes the problem harder than it needs t

You are further demonstrating how the cloudy semantics of the question and of casual semi-mathematical English language makes the problem harder than it needs to be. This is a huge problem in probability theory, as you allude to. Experts often forget how their preferred mathematical models drift away from lay language, and say things casually that don't really mean what they say.