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Isnt the root that "AI" has come to be equated with "generative AI" in the public (and investor) mind? And since genAI shows great promise but is still in its e

Isnt the root that "AI" has come to be equated with "generative AI" in the public (and investor) mind? And since genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days, there is a rush to throw more at it in an attempt to stave off the collapse of the inflated expectations bubble. The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. Ultimately buyers pay for outcomes, and they are much more important than investors, who pay for the promise of buyers and therefore are susceptible to hype (Sequoia fawning over SBF being a juicy example). Therefore, as a seller, I would be drilling down into how my product solves a problem for the buyer, and not leading with how it gets there (AI). "Contract review in 60 seconds means you save $300 an hour on legal fees, and we have a $100M indemnity clause if we get it wrong" rather than "our AI model blah blah".

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
The issue is more that it might not be true that "genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days" What if the technique has inherent limitations, and is already delivering diminishing returns.
- kylebenzle 2y ago
  Yes, what if this "AI" boom cycle turns out to be nothing more than a next gen spellcheck/text generator? I hope to make generational wealth in shorting Nvidia at just the right time, when everyone realizes all at once, "Wait a minute, this AI chatbot thing kinda sucks..."
rsynnott 2y ago
> The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. The terminology would just change. Really, after the _last_ AI crash, the first time that people uttered the dread word AI (except in the context of games) was with generative AI; before that, anything a bit AI-y just got tagged 'ML'. 'ML' covers a lot of sins.
- kombookcha 2y ago
  ML is a lot more accurate to what many of these current 'AI' products do anyway. The AI wave is ultimately about branding more so than any particular threshold of ability. I think you're right - if there is a large AI crash that sours people on the term for a while, most of these products are just gonna stick around in some more marketable format. Looking back at industry people pretending like ChatGPT was some frighteningly intelligent very-nearly-general-intelligence type of thing, you kinda wonder if they were deliberately doing a marketing stunt or just bought their own hype.
kylebenzle 2y ago
This is the AI boom/busy cycle as foretold and played out over and over again since time immemoria.

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago

The issue is more that it might not be true that "genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days" What if the technique has inherent limitations, and is already delivering diminishing returns.

kylebenzle 2y ago
Yes, what if this "AI" boom cycle turns out to be nothing more than a next gen spellcheck/text generator? I hope to make generational wealth in shorting Nvidia at just the right time, when everyone realizes all at once, "Wait a minute, this AI chatbot thing kinda sucks..."

rsynnott 2y ago

> The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. The terminology would just change. Really, after the _last_ AI crash, the first time that people uttered the dread word AI (except in the context of games) was with generative AI; before that, anything a bit AI-y just got tagged 'ML'. 'ML' covers a lot of sins.

kombookcha 2y ago
ML is a lot more accurate to what many of these current 'AI' products do anyway. The AI wave is ultimately about branding more so than any particular threshold of ability. I think you're right - if there is a large AI crash that sours people on the term for a while, most of these products are just gonna stick around in some more marketable format. Looking back at industry people pretending like ChatGPT was some frighteningly intelligent very-nearly-general-intelligence type of thing, you kinda wonder if they were deliberately doing a marketing stunt or just bought their own hype.

kylebenzle 2y ago

This is the AI boom/busy cycle as foretold and played out over and over again since time immemoria.