7 ms·

AI has created a 'fake it till you make it' bubble that could end in disaster

29 points by nreece 2y ago

Kuinox 2y ago
> “AI still remains, I would argue, completely unproven. And fake it till you make it may work in Silicon Valley, but for the rest of us, I think once bitten twice shy may be more appropriate for AI,” he said. “If AI cannot be trusted…then AI is effectively, in my mind, useless.” This quote is enough to dismiss the whole article.
- camjohnson26 2y ago
  “Unproven”, I don’t get how anyone can use LLMs and come away with this opinion. There is simply no better way to do a fuzzy search than by typing a vague prompt into an LLM. I was trying to find a movie title the other day, only remembered it had Lime in the title and had a Jack-the-Ripper setting. ChatGPT found it easily. Sure you have to fact check the results, but there’s undeniable value there.
  - high_na_euv 2y ago
    Value is there, but it does not match the hype as of today
    - dougdimmadome 2y ago
      Nothing ever matches the hype. That's what hype is. Literally short for hyperbole which means "exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally."
      - high_na_euv 2y ago
        >a situation in which something is advertised and discussed in newspapers, on television, etc. a lot in order to attract everyone's interest: >Nothing ever matches the hype. That's what hype is. Imo thats crazy take, there are definitely things that live up to the hype
        dougdimmadome 2y ago
        there's always someone for whom it doesn't
        high_na_euv 2y ago
        Who cares about single person? Just look at the majority and how big that group is
  - serallak 2y ago
    I put "movie title the other day, only remembered it had Lime in the title and had a Jack-the-Ripper" in Google and the first answer is "The Limehouse Golem". Is that it ? Dunno if behind the scenes it was using an LLM or "classical" search.
  - jawilson2 2y ago
    I was trying to remember the name of a book series I read as a child in the late 80s/early 90s. I gave ChatGPT part of a title (it had Scorpion and a few other words in the title), a few plot points, and the decade it was published, and asked for an ISBN. It confidently returned a book with Scorpion in the title, a short plot summary, published in 1983, an ISBN, even an author, and it was all entirely made up. It took me a few minutes to realize this when my searches on Amazon and library websites turned up nothing.
    - eesmith 2y ago
      FWIW, you might also try searching https://www.worldcat.org/ https://www.worldcat.org/ , which is a large collection of library catalogs.
    - Kuinox 2y ago
      If you asked a job candidate the same question, does their wrong response make them a bad candidate for the job ?
      - vdqtp3 2y ago
        If I asked a job candidate any question and they confidently replied with a set of facts that were entirely made up, I would not consider them for any position under any circumstances.
        Kuinox 2y ago
        Too bad, you were interviewing a warehouse worker were they don't have to think and just follow what the screens says.
    - HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
      Which model did you use? I never get hallucinations like that
  - jc_811 2y ago
    I’m not sure this is the best example of the power of an LLM. Not denying there are actual uses cases, but simply searching Google “Lime movie Jack the Ripper” will display the answer in the first result (and I imagine would have been able to do that for the past 10+ years)
  - everybodyknows 2y ago
    Exactly -- people are lazy and want to skip the fact checking. They want to be sold a divine oracle. Further to your point, I like to try ChatGPT on: What is the word for a {language, rhetorical device, figure of speech} in which ... <various properties>?" Then forward-look up the results on more authoritative, accountable sites.
- falloutx 2y ago
  The issue that LLMs are constantly hallucinating and are not capable following long term rules. Since its still niche, its not a problem but what if professionals like Lawyers or doctors start using it day to day, then we are in trouble. I wouldn't go as far as saying its useless but its effectiveness is very close to zero in most fields not related to spamming.
  - Kuinox 2y ago
    Have you tried to use LLM for work ?
    - esafak 2y ago
      It depends on your line of work. If it involves determining factual accuracy LLMs may not help: https://nondeterministic.computer/@martin/112326227079145176 https://nondeterministic.computer/@martin/112326227079145176 LLMs are good at synthesis and generation.
      - Kuinox 2y ago
        If you try to replace your whole job with an LLM, yes you will have problem. I work in IT, I use ChatGPT daily to spit out scripts, ask it to come up with function names, convert code from a technology to another, ask it to do minor refactoring that I don't know how to do. I can immediately validate the output, learn from it, and even work with techs I'm not familiar with.
        esafak 2y ago
        So you use it for generation where validation is easy. If validation were harder, the calculus would change. I also get a lot of mileage out of it, but it is important to recognize its shortcomings.
        Kuinox 2y ago
        of course, I don't try to replace my whole job out of it. ChatGPT is 'good' at doing statistical analysis with python on a given dataset, that can help in the harder task you quoted "distinguishing between ideas that are correct, and ideas that are plausible-sounding but wrong". The job itself cannot be easily verified, but you can use LLM on a subset of theses tasks.
constantcrying 2y ago
I think many non technical people have an incorrect understanding of "AI", where they conflate a single example of what neural networks can do, namely chat bots, with an entire field. Even if chat bots have no significant advances in the foreseeable future, "AI" as in large neural networks have already proven themselves to be extremely useful and able to accomplish a lot of things which are almost impossible to do without them.
- falloutx 2y ago
  I keep seeing this argument that there is value out there, but for normal people all we are seeing is spam, cute ai cat pics on different social medias, can you please give a few examples of fields/problems where AI has been really helpful.
  - kalupa 2y ago
    A solution in search of a problem
  - JohnFen 2y ago
    I work on ML networks used for industrial control systems that characterize defects in the product and determine what to do about them. Not what normal people think of when they hear "AI", but it's not really much different from what LLMs are built on. We've been selling these systems for a decade or so now.
  - Out_of_Characte 2y ago
    Any problem that has a large range of inputs and a large range of outputs with many possible permutations inbetween. Yes, you could use specialised algoritms but why not let the AI design such thing? It might be better than you.
  - goodside 2y ago
    Machine translation is valuable and it’s all neural these days.
  - scotty79 2y ago
kjellsbells 2y ago
Isnt the root that "AI" has come to be equated with "generative AI" in the public (and investor) mind? And since genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days, there is a rush to throw more at it in an attempt to stave off the collapse of the inflated expectations bubble. The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. Ultimately buyers pay for outcomes, and they are much more important than investors, who pay for the promise of buyers and therefore are susceptible to hype (Sequoia fawning over SBF being a juicy example). Therefore, as a seller, I would be drilling down into how my product solves a problem for the buyer, and not leading with how it gets there (AI). "Contract review in 60 seconds means you save $300 an hour on legal fees, and we have a $100M indemnity clause if we get it wrong" rather than "our AI model blah blah".
- SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
  The issue is more that it might not be true that "genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days" What if the technique has inherent limitations, and is already delivering diminishing returns.
  - kylebenzle 2y ago
    Yes, what if this "AI" boom cycle turns out to be nothing more than a next gen spellcheck/text generator? I hope to make generational wealth in shorting Nvidia at just the right time, when everyone realizes all at once, "Wait a minute, this AI chatbot thing kinda sucks..."
- rsynnott 2y ago
  > The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. The terminology would just change. Really, after the _last_ AI crash, the first time that people uttered the dread word AI (except in the context of games) was with generative AI; before that, anything a bit AI-y just got tagged 'ML'. 'ML' covers a lot of sins.
  - kombookcha 2y ago

29 points by nreece 2y ago

> “AI still remains, I would argue, completely unproven. And fake it till you make it may work in Silicon Valley, but for the rest of us, I think once bitten twice shy may be more appropriate for AI,” he said. “If AI cannot be trusted…then AI is effectively, in my mind, useless.” This quote is enough to dismiss the whole article.

camjohnson26 2y ago
“Unproven”, I don’t get how anyone can use LLMs and come away with this opinion. There is simply no better way to do a fuzzy search than by typing a vague prompt into an LLM. I was trying to find a movie title the other day, only remembered it had Lime in the title and had a Jack-the-Ripper setting. ChatGPT found it easily. Sure you have to fact check the results, but there’s undeniable value there.
- high_na_euv 2y ago
  Value is there, but it does not match the hype as of today
  - dougdimmadome 2y ago
    Nothing ever matches the hype. That's what hype is. Literally short for hyperbole which means "exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally."
    - high_na_euv 2y ago
      >a situation in which something is advertised and discussed in newspapers, on television, etc. a lot in order to attract everyone's interest: >Nothing ever matches the hype. That's what hype is. Imo thats crazy take, there are definitely things that live up to the hype
      - dougdimmadome 2y ago
        there's always someone for whom it doesn't
        high_na_euv 2y ago
        Who cares about single person? Just look at the majority and how big that group is
- serallak 2y ago
  I put "movie title the other day, only remembered it had Lime in the title and had a Jack-the-Ripper" in Google and the first answer is "The Limehouse Golem". Is that it ? Dunno if behind the scenes it was using an LLM or "classical" search.
- jawilson2 2y ago
  I was trying to remember the name of a book series I read as a child in the late 80s/early 90s. I gave ChatGPT part of a title (it had Scorpion and a few other words in the title), a few plot points, and the decade it was published, and asked for an ISBN. It confidently returned a book with Scorpion in the title, a short plot summary, published in 1983, an ISBN, even an author, and it was all entirely made up. It took me a few minutes to realize this when my searches on Amazon and library websites turned up nothing.
  - eesmith 2y ago
    FWIW, you might also try searching https://www.worldcat.org/ https://www.worldcat.org/ , which is a large collection of library catalogs.
  - Kuinox 2y ago
    If you asked a job candidate the same question, does their wrong response make them a bad candidate for the job ?
    - vdqtp3 2y ago
      If I asked a job candidate any question and they confidently replied with a set of facts that were entirely made up, I would not consider them for any position under any circumstances.
      - Kuinox 2y ago
        Too bad, you were interviewing a warehouse worker were they don't have to think and just follow what the screens says.
  - HeatrayEnjoyer 2y ago
    Which model did you use? I never get hallucinations like that
- jc_811 2y ago
  I’m not sure this is the best example of the power of an LLM. Not denying there are actual uses cases, but simply searching Google “Lime movie Jack the Ripper” will display the answer in the first result (and I imagine would have been able to do that for the past 10+ years)
- everybodyknows 2y ago
  Exactly -- people are lazy and want to skip the fact checking. They want to be sold a divine oracle. Further to your point, I like to try ChatGPT on: What is the word for a {language, rhetorical device, figure of speech} in which ... <various properties>?" Then forward-look up the results on more authoritative, accountable sites.
falloutx 2y ago
The issue that LLMs are constantly hallucinating and are not capable following long term rules. Since its still niche, its not a problem but what if professionals like Lawyers or doctors start using it day to day, then we are in trouble. I wouldn't go as far as saying its useless but its effectiveness is very close to zero in most fields not related to spamming.
- Kuinox 2y ago
  Have you tried to use LLM for work ?
  - esafak 2y ago
    It depends on your line of work. If it involves determining factual accuracy LLMs may not help: https://nondeterministic.computer/@martin/112326227079145176 https://nondeterministic.computer/@martin/112326227079145176 LLMs are good at synthesis and generation.
    - Kuinox 2y ago
      If you try to replace your whole job with an LLM, yes you will have problem. I work in IT, I use ChatGPT daily to spit out scripts, ask it to come up with function names, convert code from a technology to another, ask it to do minor refactoring that I don't know how to do. I can immediately validate the output, learn from it, and even work with techs I'm not familiar with.
      - esafak 2y ago
        So you use it for generation where validation is easy. If validation were harder, the calculus would change. I also get a lot of mileage out of it, but it is important to recognize its shortcomings.
        Kuinox 2y ago
        of course, I don't try to replace my whole job out of it. ChatGPT is 'good' at doing statistical analysis with python on a given dataset, that can help in the harder task you quoted "distinguishing between ideas that are correct, and ideas that are plausible-sounding but wrong". The job itself cannot be easily verified, but you can use LLM on a subset of theses tasks.

constantcrying 2y ago

I think many non technical people have an incorrect understanding of "AI", where they conflate a single example of what neural networks can do, namely chat bots, with an entire field. Even if chat bots have no significant advances in the foreseeable future, "AI" as in large neural networks have already proven themselves to be extremely useful and able to accomplish a lot of things which are almost impossible to do without them.

falloutx 2y ago
I keep seeing this argument that there is value out there, but for normal people all we are seeing is spam, cute ai cat pics on different social medias, can you please give a few examples of fields/problems where AI has been really helpful.
- kalupa 2y ago
  A solution in search of a problem
- JohnFen 2y ago
  I work on ML networks used for industrial control systems that characterize defects in the product and determine what to do about them. Not what normal people think of when they hear "AI", but it's not really much different from what LLMs are built on. We've been selling these systems for a decade or so now.
- Out_of_Characte 2y ago
  Any problem that has a large range of inputs and a large range of outputs with many possible permutations inbetween. Yes, you could use specialised algoritms but why not let the AI design such thing? It might be better than you.
- goodside 2y ago
  Machine translation is valuable and it’s all neural these days.
- scotty79 2y ago

kjellsbells 2y ago

Isnt the root that "AI" has come to be equated with "generative AI" in the public (and investor) mind? And since genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days, there is a rush to throw more at it in an attempt to stave off the collapse of the inflated expectations bubble. The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. Ultimately buyers pay for outcomes, and they are much more important than investors, who pay for the promise of buyers and therefore are susceptible to hype (Sequoia fawning over SBF being a juicy example). Therefore, as a seller, I would be drilling down into how my product solves a problem for the buyer, and not leading with how it gets there (AI). "Contract review in 60 seconds means you save $300 an hour on legal fees, and we have a $100M indemnity clause if we get it wrong" rather than "our AI model blah blah".

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
The issue is more that it might not be true that "genAI shows great promise but is still in its early days" What if the technique has inherent limitations, and is already delivering diminishing returns.
- kylebenzle 2y ago
  Yes, what if this "AI" boom cycle turns out to be nothing more than a next gen spellcheck/text generator? I hope to make generational wealth in shorting Nvidia at just the right time, when everyone realizes all at once, "Wait a minute, this AI chatbot thing kinda sucks..."
rsynnott 2y ago
> The risk then is that genAI implodes and takes down all of the other AI disciplines with it. The terminology would just change. Really, after the _last_ AI crash, the first time that people uttered the dread word AI (except in the context of games) was with generative AI; before that, anything a bit AI-y just got tagged 'ML'. 'ML' covers a lot of sins.
- kombookcha 2y ago