> If, for whatever reason, Boeing's planes are more likely to be shot down - regardless of whether or not they are at fault - they are still more dangerous. N

> If, for whatever reason, Boeing's planes are more likely to be shot down - regardless of whether or not they are at fault - they are still more dangerous. No reasonable person would conclude that. You either need enough data for it to be statistically significant (Which, given the sample size of one isn't it...) Or you can work around the lack of statistics, by having a bullet-proof explanation for why Boeings (N=1) get shot down more frequently than Aribuses (N=0). But the bar for that is much higher than 'Well, statistically speaking..." Statistics are great, because they are a lossy shortcut inform our decisionmaking when we don't actually understand the root causes. But they require statistically significant data to do so. In the absence of it, we have to actually understand the root causes.