He can't back up any of his assumptions (e.g. that oil is going to crash in the timeframe required for a "collapse"), but the last year or so of activity should

He can't back up any of his assumptions (e.g. that oil is going to crash in the timeframe required for a "collapse"), but the last year or so of activity should suggest that something like this will probably happen on a smaller scale. As such it makes for a useful thought exercise.