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It does not look like our numbers are increasing anymore, so I don't see how the latter is applicable. Middle East and Africa are booming and this is not ending

It does not look like our numbers are increasing anymore, so I don't see how the latter is applicable. Middle East and Africa are booming and this is not ending well, but I just don't see what can be done about it.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
You misunderstand population momentum. While fertility rates are rapidly declining, the global population still increases, and is projected to peak at ~10-11B people around 2100 (up from ~8B today). India will surpass China in total population around 2027, while already experiencing wet bulb temperatures beyond what the human body can survive. > but I just don't see what can be done about it. Agreed. https://populationeducation.org/population-momentum-explained/ https://populationeducation.org/population-momentum-explaine... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population https://www.un.org/ht/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100 https://www.un.org/ht/desa/world-population-projected-reach-... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/06/17/worlds-po... https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120 https://archive.today/9sYS8 https://archive.today/9sYS8
- kortilla 2y ago
  Wet bulb temperatures are about as relevant as hypothermia temperatures. We just invented the technology for heating long before air conditioning so uninformed people like to trot it out like it’s some relevant barrier where people will die in mass. They will just move to colder climates or generate some electricity to use air conditioning.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Global expert on heat stress indicates wet bulb temperatures are relevant as recently as August of 2023. Please feel free to share data your assertion is based on, and how you’re going to relocate or provide AC for billions of people in the developing world. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-change-driving-dangerous-wet-bulb-temperatures-2023-08-09/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-... https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913352107 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913352107
    - kortilla 2y ago
      How did people in Europe and North America avoid dying from the cold? I’m not saying it’s not a problem people need to deal with. I’m saying it’s a problem there is already a solution for. Elderly people die in temperatures down in 90F as well. For some reason it’s considered acceptable to “chalk it up to climate” when we allow that to happen but we go to pretty great lengths to provide shelters to prevent people from freezing to death in completely inhospitable places like New York, Detroit, Minneapolis, etc. Billions of people in the developing world will need food and water. They will also need shelter. News at 10
eru 2y ago
Booming in what sense? And 'not ending well' in what sense? Egypt and Turkey aren't exactly booming for example.
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  thriftwy meant population, but he is also an expert on optimum land use apparently
- thriftwy 2y ago
  Egypt is Russian Federation worth of human lives on a Volga region worth of land, most of which is desert. That does not sound sustainable to me.
  - eru 2y ago
    What is not sustainable about it? I hope you know that international trade in food is a thing? As long as they can make stuff that the people who can make food want, it's all fine. (And you also know that Egypt is just about the oldest country on the planet? They always had their population concentrated in a narrow strip along the Nile; even if, like in the rest of the world, population numbers have obviously gone up a lot since eg the industrial revolution.)

toomuchtodo 2y ago

You misunderstand population momentum. While fertility rates are rapidly declining, the global population still increases, and is projected to peak at ~10-11B people around 2100 (up from ~8B today). India will surpass China in total population around 2027, while already experiencing wet bulb temperatures beyond what the human body can survive. > but I just don't see what can be done about it. Agreed. https://populationeducation.org/population-momentum-explained/ https://populationeducation.org/population-momentum-explaine... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population https://www.un.org/ht/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100 https://www.un.org/ht/desa/world-population-projected-reach-... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/06/17/worlds-po... https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305427120 https://archive.today/9sYS8 https://archive.today/9sYS8

kortilla 2y ago
Wet bulb temperatures are about as relevant as hypothermia temperatures. We just invented the technology for heating long before air conditioning so uninformed people like to trot it out like it’s some relevant barrier where people will die in mass. They will just move to colder climates or generate some electricity to use air conditioning.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Global expert on heat stress indicates wet bulb temperatures are relevant as recently as August of 2023. Please feel free to share data your assertion is based on, and how you’re going to relocate or provide AC for billions of people in the developing world. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-change-driving-dangerous-wet-bulb-temperatures-2023-08-09/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-is-climate-... https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913352107 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0913352107
  - kortilla 2y ago
    How did people in Europe and North America avoid dying from the cold? I’m not saying it’s not a problem people need to deal with. I’m saying it’s a problem there is already a solution for. Elderly people die in temperatures down in 90F as well. For some reason it’s considered acceptable to “chalk it up to climate” when we allow that to happen but we go to pretty great lengths to provide shelters to prevent people from freezing to death in completely inhospitable places like New York, Detroit, Minneapolis, etc. Billions of people in the developing world will need food and water. They will also need shelter. News at 10

eru 2y ago

Booming in what sense? And 'not ending well' in what sense? Egypt and Turkey aren't exactly booming for example.

selimthegrim 2y ago
thriftwy meant population, but he is also an expert on optimum land use apparently
thriftwy 2y ago
Egypt is Russian Federation worth of human lives on a Volga region worth of land, most of which is desert. That does not sound sustainable to me.
- eru 2y ago
  What is not sustainable about it? I hope you know that international trade in food is a thing? As long as they can make stuff that the people who can make food want, it's all fine. (And you also know that Egypt is just about the oldest country on the planet? They always had their population concentrated in a narrow strip along the Nile; even if, like in the rest of the world, population numbers have obviously gone up a lot since eg the industrial revolution.)