4 ms·

it was a bubble, bubbles pop eventually

by michaelbrave 2y ago

aurareturn 2y ago
And SF will likely bounce back, bigger than ever. It's a cycle.
- asdff 2y ago
  SF bigger? Not if the current city government has any say, which is a large part of the issue. Why invest in SF with their 16 new units of housing a year when you can just invest in san jose which is increasingly the center of gravity of the bay area, especially the longer the government of SF acts like toddlers?
  - teractiveodular 2y ago
    > san jose which is increasingly the center of gravity of the bay area [citation needed] IIRC Google halted their SJ mega-campus plans, are there any other major moves happening?
    - asdff 2y ago
      Its both larger than SF and growing faster than SF. The economy of the bay area is bigger than just software engineering. If this statistic is to be believed, information technology jobs in the bay area only account for 6% of the job market anyhow (1), although they make up the vast majority of the job related headlines for the bay area I am sure. 1. https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/jobs-by-industry https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/jobs-by-industry
- frognumber 2y ago
  ... perhaps. I'm less optimistic. Detroit wasn't very springy. 30+% vacancy means it's still vastly overpriced, Alternative theory: As WFH improves, WFH will increasingly mean "Work from Ukraine," "Work from India," and "Work from Ghana." It will be hard to justify SFO salaries.
  - aussiegreenie 2y ago
    Vietnam is the cheapest country to live in Asia. Da Nang is the most affordable "world-class" beach in the world. WFH should be about beaches or mountains or museums depending on your taste. There are few advantages to living in SF.
    - frognumber 2y ago
      For me, "cheapest" is the wrong metric. Examples: - Central America is a convenient plane hop away, and in the same timezone. - Parts of Africa and India are anglophone, which makes life easy. Africa is at least somewhat timezone compatible (calls might cut into evening plans, but you don't lose sleep) The cost-of-living relative to Vietnam is low enough to not matter. There are also middle-income countries where cost-of-living is a bit higher, but with much better infrastructure. Plenty of Southern and Eastern Europe is at about a third of the per-capita GDP of the US. TL;DR: Travel around and shop for what fits you.
  - surgical_fire 2y ago
    > Alternative theory: As WFH improves, WFH will increasingly mean "Work from Ukraine," "Work from India," and "Work from Ghana." It will be hard to justify SFO salaries. This theory is bullshit. Outsourcing has been a thing for decade. Moving all work to the cheapest possible place has been tried many times, to varying degrees of failure.
    - frognumber 2y ago
      A lot of this depends on: - Whether people move with the work - Telework infrastructure
  - AnarchismIsCool 2y ago
    You're not wrong, but also currently the rust belt, including Detroit, is bouncing back somewhat because it's the last bastion of cheap housing for people who aren't making HN ivory tower money.

it was a bubble, bubbles pop eventually

aurareturn 2y ago

And SF will likely bounce back, bigger than ever. It's a cycle.

asdff 2y ago
SF bigger? Not if the current city government has any say, which is a large part of the issue. Why invest in SF with their 16 new units of housing a year when you can just invest in san jose which is increasingly the center of gravity of the bay area, especially the longer the government of SF acts like toddlers?
- teractiveodular 2y ago
  > san jose which is increasingly the center of gravity of the bay area [citation needed] IIRC Google halted their SJ mega-campus plans, are there any other major moves happening?
  - asdff 2y ago
    Its both larger than SF and growing faster than SF. The economy of the bay area is bigger than just software engineering. If this statistic is to be believed, information technology jobs in the bay area only account for 6% of the job market anyhow (1), although they make up the vast majority of the job related headlines for the bay area I am sure. 1. https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/jobs-by-industry https://vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/indicators/jobs-by-industry
frognumber 2y ago
... perhaps. I'm less optimistic. Detroit wasn't very springy. 30+% vacancy means it's still vastly overpriced, Alternative theory: As WFH improves, WFH will increasingly mean "Work from Ukraine," "Work from India," and "Work from Ghana." It will be hard to justify SFO salaries.
- aussiegreenie 2y ago
  Vietnam is the cheapest country to live in Asia. Da Nang is the most affordable "world-class" beach in the world. WFH should be about beaches or mountains or museums depending on your taste. There are few advantages to living in SF.
  - frognumber 2y ago
    For me, "cheapest" is the wrong metric. Examples: - Central America is a convenient plane hop away, and in the same timezone. - Parts of Africa and India are anglophone, which makes life easy. Africa is at least somewhat timezone compatible (calls might cut into evening plans, but you don't lose sleep) The cost-of-living relative to Vietnam is low enough to not matter. There are also middle-income countries where cost-of-living is a bit higher, but with much better infrastructure. Plenty of Southern and Eastern Europe is at about a third of the per-capita GDP of the US. TL;DR: Travel around and shop for what fits you.
- surgical_fire 2y ago
  > Alternative theory: As WFH improves, WFH will increasingly mean "Work from Ukraine," "Work from India," and "Work from Ghana." It will be hard to justify SFO salaries. This theory is bullshit. Outsourcing has been a thing for decade. Moving all work to the cheapest possible place has been tried many times, to varying degrees of failure.
  - frognumber 2y ago
    A lot of this depends on: - Whether people move with the work - Telework infrastructure
- AnarchismIsCool 2y ago
  You're not wrong, but also currently the rust belt, including Detroit, is bouncing back somewhat because it's the last bastion of cheap housing for people who aren't making HN ivory tower money.