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Myself and a colleague entered this competition. We came 9th. We were doing this for fun, and aren't experts in the domain, but I think our score was within 'di
by feral 14y ago
Myself and a colleague entered this competition. We came 9th.
We were doing this for fun, and aren't experts in the domain, but I think our score was within 'diminishing returns' of the better teams.
There are a couple of things to realize about this challenge:
I wouldn't conceptualise the challenge as trying to find features of good essays. It is more about trying to find features that are predictive of the essay being good.
This is a subtle but important distinction. One example is that the length of essay was hugely predictive of the score the essay would get - longer meant better.
Is a longer essay really a better one? No. But, at the level the students were at, it just so happened that the students who were able to write better, also were able to write longer essays.
While you get good accuracy using techniques like this, its debatable how useful or robust this general approach is - because you aren't really measuring the quality of the essay, so much as you are trying to find features that just happen to be predictive of the quality.
Certainly, it would seem fairly easy for future students to game, if such a system was deployed.
This isn't a general attack on machine learning competitions - but I wonder, if for situations that are in some sense adversarial like this (in that future students would have an incentive to game the system), whether some sort of iterated challenge would be better? After a couple of rounds of grading and attempting to game the grading, we'd probably have a more accurate assessment of how a system would work in practice.
There is another important feature of this essay grading challenge, that should be taken into consideration. There were 8 sets of essays, each on a different topic. So, for example, essay set 4 might have had the topic 'Write an essay on what you feel about technology in schools'. To improve accuracy, competitors could (and I would guess most of the better teams did) build separate models for each individual essay-set/topic. This then increased the accuracy of, say, a bag of words approach - if an essay-set 1 essay mentioned the word 'Internet' then maybe that was predictive of a good essay-set-1 essay, even though the inclusion of 'Internet' would not be predictive of essay quality, across all student essays.
Its important to remember this when thinking about the success of the algorithms. The essay grading algorithms were not necessarily general purpose, and could be fitted to each individual essay topic.
Which is fine, as long as we realize it. The fact that it was so easy to surpass inter annotator agreement (how predictive one of the human graders scoring was of the other human graders scoring) was interesting. Its just important to realize the limits of the machine learning contest setup.
I would guess that accuracy would down on essays of older, more advanced students, or in an adversarial situation where there was an incentive to game the system.
- _delirium 14y agoWhile you get good accuracy using techniques like this, its debatable how useful or robust this general approach is - because you aren't really measuring the quality of the essay, so much as you are trying to find features that just happen to be predictive of the quality. Certainly, it would seem fairly easy for future students to game, if such a system was deployed. I'm not able to dig up the name, but there's a named effect in statistics (especially social-science statistics) describing exactly that. When you find a correlate of a desired outcome that has predictive value, a common result if you then set the correlate as a metric is that a substantial part of the correlation and predictive value quickly disappears, because you've now given people incentives to effectively arbitrage the proxy measure. You've said, I'm going to treat easy-to-measure property A as a proxy for what-I-really-want property B. Now there is a market incentive to find the cheapest possible way to maximize property A, which often ends up being via loopholes that do not maximize property B. A heuristic explanation is that proxies that are easier to measure than the "real" thing are also easier to optimize than the real thing. At the very least, your original statistics aren't valid anymore, because you measured in the context where people were not explicitly trying to optimize for A, but now they are doing so, so you need to re-measure to check if this changed the data.
- gwern 14y agoGoodhart's law?
- _delirium 14y agoAha, almost it; I was thinking of the very similar Campbell's law, which your mention of Goodhart's law led me to. Somehow no combination of search terms got me to either of those when I was trying to come up with the name, though...
- gammarator 14y agoVery interesting, and a useful concept. Both grades and standarized testing themselves are subject to these pressures, obviously.