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Medium term - China is going to lead the world in emissions reductions. They have the most to reduce and the most to lose if they don't move to renewables rapid
by onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
Medium term - China is going to lead the world in emissions reductions. They have the most to reduce and the most to lose if they don't move to renewables rapidly.
Short term - nothing much is happening. Rome wasn't built in a day.
The US can idly sit around and burn it's own natural gas and oil. The US at least has the option to maintain the status quo for a long time (it won't). But China doesn't even have this option.
Additionally, auto manufacturing (ICE cars) accounts for ~5% of US employment. For China ICE auto manufacturing is ~0, and they have the opportunity to produce a huge chunk of the worlds EVs. They're not only incentivized massively to get off oil - they're incentivized to get EVERYONE ELSE off of oil, too.
China needs to IMPORT natural gas and oil. They'd much rather lead the world in renewables EXPORT EVs and renewable generation than be reliant on Russia & KSA for energy (the basis of their current economy)...
China will likely cut their emissions faster than the US has - which if you're realistic - the US has done an impressive job.
The US emits ~30% less carbon per capita than it did in 2000. And we're on pace to be at ~40% less by the end of 2030: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1049662/fossil-us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-person/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1049662/fossil-us-carbon...
In 20 years, China is likely to be around ~75% less than today. The US probably won't get from ~40% to ~75% over that time.
The lobbying from our own energy producers will too much to cut that deep that quickly.
The US and China are close to ~50% of emissions: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emi...
No one else besides India is really going to move the needle (certainly not in the wrong direction - no one else is growing fast enough).
India will be the wild card. Will they import renewable energy generation from China or fossil fuel from Russia and KSA?
- toomuchtodo 2y agoChina will (supposedly) reach as well as potentially exceed their 2030 renewables target by the end of this year [1], and the solar manufacturing and deployment flywheel is still coming up to speed (global solar deployment is anticipated to reach ~660GW/pa by end of year, should achieve 1TW/pa within the next 18 months assuming current trajectories [2]). China and India being close geographically while also having enormous fossil generation to push out of the generation mix is convenient; not far from factory to solar farm. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-leads-renewables-charge-asia-others-need-catch-up-russell-2024-06-04/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-leads-renewabl... [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40727619 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40727619