Personally I think, if PRC was really going to engage in a significant military escalation of the cross-straits conflict, a PRC invasion of Taiwan-controlled is

Personally I think, if PRC was really going to engage in a significant military escalation of the cross-straits conflict, a PRC invasion of Taiwan-controlled islands immediately off the PRC coast (Kinmen and Matsu islands) is most likely. Only 10-20 km from PRC, they would be easiest for PRC to invade and hardest for Taiwan to defend. Taiwan-and other powers such as the US and Japan-would have a very difficult decision to make in terms of how to respond, and Beijing will be hoping they give up rather than fight back hard-which would be a massive morale boost for PRC and a huge loss of face for Taiwan and its de facto allies. It would be a rather risky escalation for PRC, but still a lot less risky than actually attempting an invasion of the Taiwan mainland. Other conceivable options, falling short of a full scale invasion of the Taiwanese mainland, would be a naval blockade of mainland Taiwan or missile strikes against it.