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The real problem I have with the "X-hundred year Y" things is that it leads even technical and mathematically inclined people to get confused, let alone people
by jihadjihad 2y ago
The real problem I have with the "X-hundred year Y" things is that it leads even technical and mathematically inclined people to get confused, let alone people who are neither. It makes it sound like it happens on a schedule, or that it is not common / a minuscule risk.
A "100 year flood" implies there's a 1-.99^30 or a 26% chance of happening over the life of a mortgage.
I always feel like if it were phrased in that way people would grasp the concept better. Same idea holds for any X and Y.
- beerandt 2y agoThese make for great entertaining/ filtering threads though. Obvious who knows probability and who's a PE, plus various levels of self-awareness. Otherwise intelligent ppl taking terms at face value that are actually terms-of-art / industry lingo. And sometimes grossly misapplying such terms. And that's before you even get into politics/ ideology, should you want to judge such things. It's a 6d personality/intelligence grid. Throwing 100 interviewees into a hypothetical thread like this is the closest I can think of to the perfect early round hiring process.