>And he doesn’t take much comfort from history that shows technologies improving and becoming less costly over time, arguing that AI model advances likely won’t

>And he doesn’t take much comfort from history that shows technologies improving and becoming less costly over time, arguing that AI model advances likely won’t occur nearly as quickly—or be nearly as impressive—as many believe. Currently we need cards with larger memory, then we'll need faster cards, then cards with more memory again. The only reason why we don't have $1000 64gb cards is because, as the article points out, NVidia currently has a stranglehold in the market. Given that GPUs print money it won't be more than a few years before we see those cards from other parties. At the same time the improvement in small models has been phenomenal, there are now 8b models that consistently outperform the original gpt-3.5-turbo. In two years the state of the art model is now something that can run in your phone for free.