2 ms·
Consider it this way - I would say that scaling Mt. Everest now a days is relative easier than it was for early adventurers and explorers to scale far lesser mo
by somenameforme 2y ago
Consider it this way - I would say that scaling Mt. Everest now a days is relative easier than it was for early adventurers and explorers to scale far lesser mountains, in the past. Of course Everest is far more difficult, yet modern supplies, knowledge, sherpas/guides, and more have enabled even 80+ year olds to scale it. It's still a huge achievement nonetheless, but modern competencies have really enabled us to minimize the dangers. Though of course there's still substantial danger - many people find their final resting place there.
And I think it will be similar on Mars. What is being done is, itself, far more difficult than what was done in the past. Yet in this case we have a far better idea of what we need to do, what we will be facing, and so on. There will be unknown unknowns, and those will get people killed, but I think the frequency of such unknowns will probably be quite a bit lower, which I would claim makes it overall "easier."
In the past even "just" doing a transatlantic crossing was basically accepting that a good chunk of your crew weren't going to make it. In the early Age of Sail, you'd be lucky if you were left with half your crew. The grand explorers like Magellan fared even worse. For his circumnavigation, he left with 5 ships and 270 men. "He" returned with one ship and 18 men, a 93% death rate. "He" in quotes as he was not one of those 18.
- germinalphrase 2y agoI was commenting on a colonization effort, not merely exploration. I’ll happily concede that exploring Mars is perilous but also realistic.
- somenameforme 2y agoAs was I. The analog was more about the overall shifting in risk profile where something that is, in objective terms, more difficult than something else can, over time, become relatively easier than the easier thing was in the past.
- paulryanrogers 2y agoDust on Mars is quite problematic. Perhaps worse than lunar dust. Even exploring Mars and returning --without a dust hazard--is unlikely to succeed in this century.